We have conducted one of the more comprehensive studies to date on the effects of multiple glycemic traits and the risk of NAFLD. We found that higher fasting insulin levels increased the risk of NAFLD. In addition, genetic liability to T2DM also appeared to increase the risk of NAFLD. However, no significant association was observed between fasting glucose and HbA1c and the risk of NAFLD. Sensitivity analyses with different statistical models showed almost similar results.
With the pandemic of western lifestyles, NAFLD is gradually becoming a metabolic disease that continues to increase in prevalence worldwide1. The pathogenesis of NAFLD is not fully understood and epidemiological, biochemical, and therapeutic evidence suggests that the main pathophysiological mechanism in most patients with NAFLD is changes in lipid metabolism due to insulin resistance. Insulin resistance occurs when the tissue response to the hormone insulin is inadequate. In adipose tissue, the normal ability of insulin to inhibit lipolysis is impaired, resulting in an excessive release of free fatty acids which, like fat obtained from the diet, are subsequently absorbed by the liver. The inability of the tissue to respond appropriately to insulin results in abnormally high glucose levels, which leads to the production and secretion of insulin levels in excess of those required to maintain glucose levels in the blood48. Both hyperglycaemia and hyperlipidaemia stimulate new fat production, which further increases the accumulation of liver fat49,50. Under normal conditions, appropriate hepatic lipid levels would be maintained by increased lipoprotein secretion for outward transport; however, in patients with NAFLD, lipoprotein secretion is not sufficiently increased51. Conversely, the accumulation of specific lipids, such as diacylglycerols or ceramides, can impair hepatic insulin signaling, leading to a pathological increase in hepatic gluconeogenesis48. A longitudinal study found an association between randomized plasma glucose levels and the risk of developing NAFLD, even in individuals without diabetes52. In recent years, several observational studies have reported an association between NAFLD and T2DM, and a large meta-analysis of observational studies from 20 countries estimated the global prevalence of NAFLD in patients with T2DM to be ~ 56%21. In addition, T2DM is an established risk factor for the rapid progression of NAFLD to NASH, cirrhosis, or HCC21,53−55. Angulo et al56. found that a baseline diagnosis of T2DM was positively associated with overall mortality and liver-related outcomes in patients with NAFLD. Circulating ALT and AST are markers of NAFLD and in a study using Mendelian randomization, by including up to 64,094 T2DM cases and 607,012 controls, it was found that increased circulating ALT and AST were associated with a higher risk of T2DM, and that higher fasting insulin was associated with higher circulating ALT. This study provides some support that insulin resistance and fasting insulin increase the risk of developing NAFLD57. In addition, NAFLD also contributes to diabetes. NAFLD, especially NASH with varying degrees of hepatic fibrosis, exacerbates hepatic insulin resistance and leads to the release of several pro-inflammatory mediators and pro-diabetic hepatic factors (e.g. fetuin-A, fetuin-B, fibroblast growth factor 21, retinol-binding protein 4 and selenoprotein P) that may promote the development of diabetes mellitus58,59.
In addition, this study found that higher fasting insulin levels increased the risk of NAFLD. This is consistent with the results of a study that measured intact insulin molecule levels by mass spectrometry to predict NAFLD. The study included 180 patients and found that insulin secretion during oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) was increased approximately 4-fold in NAFLD patients without diabetes compared to all other subgroups (p = 0.008). This study concluded that accurate measurement of fasting intact insulin levels by mass spectrometry in non-diabetic patients is a simple, non-invasive strategy for predicting the onset of NAFLD60.The threshold level at which HbA1c increases the risk of developing NAFLD has rarely been determined by longitudinal analysis. A study from Yoo et al61. showed for the first time an independent association between HbA1c variability and the risk of NAFLD in patients with diabetes, with elevated mean HbA1c levels increasing the risk of NAFLD, even in normal glucose tolerance (NGT) subjects. Furthermore, in the study by Alexopoulos et al62, the relationship between glycaemic control represented by HbA1c and liver injury was explored by including patients with biopsyproven NAFLD/NASH (n = 713). This study found that higher mean HbA1c levels were associated with higher levels of steatosis and hepatocyte ballooning. The data showed that every 1% increase in mean HbA1c was associated with a 15% increase in the odds of progression to the fibrotic phase (OR, 1.15; 95% ci, 1.01, 1.31). Glycaemic control was generally associated with increased severity of hepatocellular ballooning (OR: 1.74; 95% CI, 1.01–3.01; P = 0.048) and liver fibrosis significantly (OR: 4.59; 95% CI, 2.33–9.06; P < 0.01) compared with good glycaemic control. All the above studies show that blood glucose control predicts the severity of hepatocyte ballooning and liver fibrosis in NAFLD/NASH, so optimizing glycaemic control may be a means of improving the risk of NASH-related fibrosis progression.
Our study has several significant strengths. First, we have conducted one of the more comprehensive studies to date on the effects of multiple glycaemic traits and the risk of NAFLD. Secondly, using the MR design, our study can mimic a randomized controlled trial (RCT) in an observational setting. studies in MR using genetic variation as IV may avoid some of the limitations of observational studies (confounding, reverse causality, regression dilution bias) and RCTs (representativeness and feasibility issues) in making causal inferences63. Finally, this study helps to provide a basis and new targets for screening for fasting insulin levels, fasting glucose and HB1Ac in patients with NAFLD. However, several limitations should be noted in our study. First, the present study did not find a significant association between fasting glucose and HbA1c and HAFLD, which is inconsistent with some of the current studies that have found an association with the risk of developing NAFLD in patients with fasting hyperglycaemia and high HbA1c levels. On the one hand, this may be related to the limited sample size of NAFLD selected for this study, and on the other hand, the interaction between genes and the environment cannot be assessed at the pooled level data to be assessed, with different lifestyle and metabolic factors and NAFLD varying by age or gender. We should be aware of the diversity of patients with NAFLD and in the future may consider subgroup analyses of confounding factors such as age, gender, and body mass index (BMI) in patients with NAFLD. Second, most participants in this study were European. While this largely avoids population heterogeneity, MR results should be further validated in other populations to verify generalizability when more GWAS data are available in future studies. Third, there was heterogeneity in some of the MR analyses performed in this study. Although the results obtained by several MR methods were similar, we cannot completely exclude the possibility of bias in the estimation of derived defects due to heterogeneity or pleiotropy defects in the genetic tools.
In conclusion, both NAFLD and T2DM can be treated with lifestyle interventions such as a low-calorie diet and moderate physical activity, or with medications that lower circulating insulin levels, to reduce the risk of developing glycaemia and related complications on the one hand, and to significantly improve liver steatosis or liver injury on the other. The results of this study therefore further emphasize the important role of glycaemic management in the prevention of NAFLD and help to provide a basis and new targets for the screening of fasting insulin levels, fasting glucose and additional glycaemic traits such as 2-hour fasting glucose and haemoglobin glycation index (HGI) in patients with NAFLD.