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Research
Habte Tadesse Likassa
Corresponding Author
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Background
COVID 19 is becoming a global health problem, where strong intervention is needed. Thus, this paper addresses predictive models on COVID 19 in Africa, from which the government and others put a strong intervention in optimizing resources and necessary healthcare demand.
Methods
Predictive models (Cubic polynomial and quadratic regression models) are considered based on the daily report of WHO, 2020 rampant data. The data were analyzed using R and STATA packages.
Results
The result of the study has shown that the spatial and temporal pattern of this novel virus is varying, spreading and covering the entire world within a brief time. The result has shown that the fitting effect of cubic model is best outperforming compared to the other six families of exponentials ( {R}^{2}=0.996, F=538.334, {D}_{{F}_{1}}=3,{D}_{{F}_{1}}=7, {b}_{1}=13691.949, {b}_{2}=-824.701, {b}_{1}=12.956). The cubic algorithm is more robust in predicting the deaths and confirmed cases of COVID 19. There are also evidences that the source of the outbreak of the epidemic is related to Huanan Seafood from the whole market, fever (78%), cough (59%), fatigue (75%), headache (76%), and others are identified as the major symptoms of COVID 19. Moreover, the result of our study has shown the corona virus infection epidemic is increasing, which seeks a long-term plan to take an action in disease prevention and intervention programs.
Conclusion
The trend of COVID 19 is increasing with an alarm rate, thus strong intervention is needed to mitigate the spread of this novel virus. This also can be done through reducing the spread of COVID 19 as persistent and strict self-isolation. The results acquired from this study also recommend that COVID-19 mortality and more cases might be engulfing in Africa due to lack of preparedness and giving strong awareness for the public.
This pandemic will sustain to grow up, and peak to the highest for which a strong care and public health interventions practically implemented. Africans must go beyond theory preparations, strong awareness for the public and practical implementation is highly recommended. Highly recommended more sophisticated equipment to tackle the spread of the virus and safe the loss of the infected from deaths.
Keywords
Prediction Models, COVID 19, Mitigation Mechanisms, Transmission and Symptoms
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A new preprint design is coming!
We have improved readability, clarity, accessibility, and opportunities for engagement.
This is a preprint, a preliminary version of a manuscript that has not completed peer review at a journal. Research Square does not conduct peer review prior to posting preprints. The posting of a preprint on this server should not be interpreted as an endorsement of its validity or suitability for dissemination as established information or for guiding clinical practice.
Research
Habte Tadesse Likassa
Corresponding Author
Badges
Prescreen
This manuscript passed our Prescreen assessment
Complete author information
Appropriate declaration statements
Potential risks to human health
Prescreen
History
CURRENT STATUS: Posted
View the published article at Infectious Disease Modelling.
Version 1
Posted 30 Apr, 2020
No community comments so far
Metrics
Comments: 0
PDF Downloads: ...
HTML Views: ...
License:
This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License. Read Full License
View the published article at Infectious Disease Modelling.
Background
COVID 19 is becoming a global health problem, where strong intervention is needed. Thus, this paper addresses predictive models on COVID 19 in Africa, from which the government and others put a strong intervention in optimizing resources and necessary healthcare demand.
Methods
Predictive models (Cubic polynomial and quadratic regression models) are considered based on the daily report of WHO, 2020 rampant data. The data were analyzed using R and STATA packages.
Results
The result of the study has shown that the spatial and temporal pattern of this novel virus is varying, spreading and covering the entire world within a brief time. The result has shown that the fitting effect of cubic model is best outperforming compared to the other six families of exponentials ( {R}^{2}=0.996, F=538.334, {D}_{{F}_{1}}=3,{D}_{{F}_{1}}=7, {b}_{1}=13691.949, {b}_{2}=-824.701, {b}_{1}=12.956). The cubic algorithm is more robust in predicting the deaths and confirmed cases of COVID 19. There are also evidences that the source of the outbreak of the epidemic is related to Huanan Seafood from the whole market, fever (78%), cough (59%), fatigue (75%), headache (76%), and others are identified as the major symptoms of COVID 19. Moreover, the result of our study has shown the corona virus infection epidemic is increasing, which seeks a long-term plan to take an action in disease prevention and intervention programs.
Conclusion
The trend of COVID 19 is increasing with an alarm rate, thus strong intervention is needed to mitigate the spread of this novel virus. This also can be done through reducing the spread of COVID 19 as persistent and strict self-isolation. The results acquired from this study also recommend that COVID-19 mortality and more cases might be engulfing in Africa due to lack of preparedness and giving strong awareness for the public.
This pandemic will sustain to grow up, and peak to the highest for which a strong care and public health interventions practically implemented. Africans must go beyond theory preparations, strong awareness for the public and practical implementation is highly recommended. Highly recommended more sophisticated equipment to tackle the spread of the virus and safe the loss of the infected from deaths.
Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3
Figure 4
Figure 5
Figure 6
Figure 7
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