Hybrid knowledge-assisted ML Design criteria
In the present work, the ML investigations consist of data preparation, feature preselection, ML model selection, knowledge-based key feature selection and predictions 8,9. The main purpose/motivation is to reveal the intrinsic features closely related to the heat transport behavior of HEPOs via a domain knowledge-guided interpretive ML strategy, achieving the target performance orient design for HEPOs efficiently. Based on the established feature pool in Table 1, the feature selection process has been departed into three steps to identify the most relevant descriptors, including a Pearson correlation analysis, model selection and use of the cross-validation method. To reach acceptable accuracy, the first step involves feature filtering. As shown in Fig. 2a, 13 features were selected first and the Pearson correlation coefficient method was used to evaluate these features, which with a high correlation coefficient are considered highly correlated. In particular, those intrinsic properties related to structural information will be efficiently addressed and considered as the proper descriptor in ML. The six descriptors down selected are mavg, m*, rA/rB, r*, Eneg and VEC to represent crystal (highlighted in red) and electronic (highlighted in blue) properties as input features. Several well-known ML models, including ET, RF, XGBoost, GNB, KNN, LR, DT, and SVM, were built through training using the dataset with the target property and the preselected features. The cross-validation method was utilized to estimate the test error for these models, and the best-performing model is chosen by considering its predictions. Specifically, the performance of several ML models has been evaluated by the R2 and RMSE values from all the models for all possible subsets of the six retained features as shown in Fig. 2b. The XGBoost model has the lowest RMSE and higher average R2 on the test observations and is used as the preferred ML model.
In order to further address the dominate KPPs, it is essential to find the optimum feature combination that yields the best prediction efficiency and remains knowledge-based selections. The SHAP values of 6 pre-selected features were calculated with the best model via XGBoost, as presented in Fig. 2c. it is worth mentioning that the XGBoost algorithm with a wrapper-based method was employed to test all possible sets and subsets of combinations of pre-selected features. The mean RMSE based on different subsets of features is plotted in Fig. 2d, presenting/indicating different combinations of feature sets have different predictabilities, while the lowest RMSE can be achieved by only one feature but three features can reach similar performance. It is understood that the consideration of domain knowledge is an integral part of feature selection, which could build the scientific connection between descriptors and heat transport mechanism by introducing the physical meaningfulness of the specific KPPs.
Combing Fig. 2c and Fig. 2d with both the SHAP analysis and physical considerations, r*, rA/rB, and Eneg are correctly identified as the three KPPs attain low-κ HEPOs, representing for scatting lattice distortion effect, pyrochlore to fluorite transformation and correlating to the bond strength of constituent atoms, respectively. r* and rA/rB are structural in nature from the perspective of the molecular level, and Eneg originates from potent insight into the electronic structure. Specifically, r* is used to represent complex structures with strong anharmonicity and has been widely applied in guiding the advanced development of high-entropy alloys 4,9,38. It is essential to seek the large r* among HEPOs composed elements, which would be treated as one kinds of KPPs. Moreover, different values of rA/rB correspond to the different structures, which is important for representing the complex structure as the chemical complexity and oxygen vacancy is determined by structure type. It has been further evidenced that the conductivity of structures with imperfections can be tuned by manipulating the concentration of oxygen vacancies 39. Furthermore, Eneg is a parameter to represent the ability to attract electrons inducing bond strength, scatting the electronic contribution, and contributing to the lattice distortion effect 13.
Figure 2e plots the predicted 𝜅 at room temperature as a function of the reported 171 values (listed in Table S1) from the ML model using the XGBoost. The ML model accurately predicted 𝜅 across a diverse range of HEPOs, along with a reference line (y = x) to facilitate visualization. It achieves R2 of 0.985 implying the high performance of the XGBoost model in predicting thermal conductivity, and further demonstrating the accuracy of the knowledge-based feature selection/classification.
Smart design HEPOs via addressed KPPs
The interactions of ML with fundamental knowledge feedback a series of composite for five-component pyrochlore oxide (5RE0.2)2Zr2O7 (RE = Sc, Y and La ~ Lu) with the lower κ, considering an A-site disordered HEPOs. Within all possible subsets of combination among 17 RE elements, the visualizations of the predicted 𝜅 datasets of 6188 (\({C}_{17}^{5}\)) kinds of HEPOs compounds at 300 K are displayed in Fig. 2f, arranged in order of the distribution frequency. The correlations between three KPPs (r*, rA/rB and Eneg) and the 6459 samples (6288 points relate to the current work and the other 171 are taken from the publications) are examined in Figure S1. It can be seen that thermal conductivity presents a weak systematic dependence on Eneg but shows a linear correlation of r* and rA/rB. To clearly distinguish among the vast composition space, the 6188 HEPOs were divided into 8 groups (G1 to G8), and most components are distributed in G1 with a lower κ around 1.55 Wm−1 K−1. To further understand the underpinnings for the existence of the KPPs to heat transfer, Fig. 2g plots the distribution of κ from G1 to G8 versus r*, rA/rB and Eneg, respectively. These immediately relevant trends reconfirm that κ has a good correlation with the overall size disorder 4,9,38 14. Moreover, lattice distortion is affected by both atomic size mismatch and electronegativity. All the compositions in G7 and G8 mainly have Eneg < 4.76 and rA/rB < 1.46 and higher 𝜅 (Fig. 2g). While fluorite being stable in the region rA/rB < 1.46, the electronegativity difference between ions could affect ionic bond strength thus κ 13.
To determine the most effective combination of RE elements for target performance, the distribution function of RE elements in the corresponding group is displayed in Fig. 2h. The frequency distribution of the RE elements for the component of HEPOs in the group (G1) with the lowest κ and the higher κ groups are compared in Figure S2 and Figure S3. It is found that HRE (Tb ~ Lu, Sc, Y) is mainly concentrated in G8 with higher κ. The phase structure of A2B2O7 changes with RE cations radius 19 exhibiting the pyrochlore structure with light lanthanide (La ~ Gd) and the fluorite type with HRE. Accordingly, the structure of G8 is mainly fluorite-type consistent with those aforementioned findings in Fig. 2g. On the contrary, the G1 group has lower κ which is mainly composed of RE elements with high radius differences. With the decreasing size of the RE3+ radius in the order of La ~ Lu, the distribution of RE elements frequency in G1 presents a U-shaped relationship, indicating the importance of the lattice distortion effect.
For further validation of these promising predictions, one composition (5RE0.2)2Zr2O7 HEPOs in G1 was chosen based on Fig. 2. Since higher Y contents can offer improved insulating potential and stabilized phase 40 and the highest frequency of Sc elements appearing in G1 of the lowest κ, Sc and Y have been selected as the essential HRE elements constructing (5RE0.2)2Zr2O7 HEPOs although Sc is expensive and Y has a lower frequency in G1. Moreover, considering the U-shaped relationship between light lanthanide and HRE and the more computationally expensive nature of HRE for 4f shells, three light lanthanides (La, Ce and Pr) were chosen to result in severe lattice distortion by inducing the large cation size difference with the selected HRE (Sc, Y). Therefore, (Sc0.2Y0.2La0.2Ce0.2Pr0.2)2Zr2O7 in G1 with the theoretical κ below 1.59 Wm− 1 K− 1 was selected and further verified experimentally and theoretically.
Thermodynamic combinatorial models for cross-validation
The electronic transport behavior of the composition designed with the present approach has been fully studied in this section for realizing the cross-validations. The high-throughput first-principles calculations were performed to evaluate the 𝜅L with the thermodynamic considerations and to verify the importance of the design criteria. Figure 3 shows the combinatorial schema (details in “Methods”) of Debye temperature \(\varTheta\), Grüneisen parameters γ to the 𝜅L of RE2Zr2O7 (RE = Sc, Y, La, Ce and Pr) oxides and (5RE0.2)2Zr2O7 HEPOs with temperatures ranging from 200 to 1600 K. In Fig. 3a, the \({\varTheta }_{\left(1\right)}\) curve are clearly lower than other all curves calculated by Eq. (4) and significantly different from experimental data, which is attributed to the regardless of the volumetric effects at higher temperatures for Eq. (3). When the Grüneisen parameters (approximations shown as \({\gamma }^{\left(1\right)}\) for thermal formulation, \({\gamma }^{\left(2\right)}\) for Slate, \({\gamma }^{\left(3\right)}\) for Dugdale–MacDonald, \({\gamma }^{\left(4\right)}\)for Vaschenko–Zubarev and \({\gamma }^{\left(5\right)}\) for modified free-volume) are compared in Fig. 3a, the calculated Debye temperatures \({\varTheta }_{\left(m\right)}\left({\gamma }^{\left(n\right)}\right)\) using these five γ have a remarkably little variation for La2Zr2O7, lying in the range 400–523K at room temperature. As all the analytical forms of \(\gamma\) are based on the assumption, which are failed to describe the thermoelastic behavior of HEPOs with great accuracy, the \(\gamma\) down selected is \({\gamma }^{\left(4\right)}\) for more theoretically correct 41. \({\varTheta }_{\left(2\right)}\left({\gamma }^{\left(3\right)}\right)\) will be the best descriptor for the calculation of the 𝜅L. The comparison between \({\kappa }_{\left(1\right)}\left({\varTheta }_{\left(2\right)}\right({\gamma }^{\left(3\right)}),{\gamma }^{\left(3\right)})\), \({\kappa }_{\left(2\right)}\left({\varTheta }_{\left(2\right)}\right({\gamma }^{\left(3\right)}),{\gamma }^{\left(3\right)})\) is depicted in Fig. 3b. The \({\kappa }_{\left(2\right)}\left({\varTheta }_{\left(2\right)}\right({\gamma }^{\left(3\right)}),{\gamma }^{\left(3\right)})\) reproduces the experimental 𝜅L values of RE2Zr2O7 better than the \({\kappa }_{\left(1\right)}\left({\varTheta }_{\left(2\right)}\right({\gamma }^{\left(3\right)}),{\gamma }^{\left(3\right)})\). In addition, our approach allowed us to study not only the perfect crystal lattice, but also to predict the effect of the presence of micropores on 𝜅. The effective 𝜅 could be normalized by \({\kappa }_{\text{eff}}={\kappa }_{L}(\text{1}-\frac{4}{3})\varphi\), where the porosity ϕ sets as 5% in accordance with experiment 15. Therefore, the major contribution to the deviation between the prediction \({\kappa }_{\left(2\right)}\) with 5% porosity according to the reported data of La2Zr2O7 is mainly corresponding to the relatively low 𝜅L of zirconate intrinsically 3.
As shown in Fig. 3c, the effects of temperature and RE elements on thermal transport have been exhibited, where the 𝜅L values are obtained by the \({\kappa }_{\left(2\right)}\) with 5% porosity. It could be seen that two regions are delineated. At stage I, 𝜅L obeys the 1/T law by anharmonic Umklapp phonon - phonon scattering, which donates the enhanced thermal resistance and the anharmonic effect caused by the intensive phonon excitations 11. Afterward, 𝜅L decreases to a plateau-like region entitled as Stage II, presenting its independence of temperature, and accessing the minimum 𝜅L. Moreover, La2Zr2O7 has the lowest 𝜅L values in RE2Zr2O7 oxides, which is in line with that La2Zr2O7 is acknowledged as the third generation of TBC materials 42. It is well-documented that a cocktail of the properties of complex HEPOs often exceeds those predicted by the rule of mixtures 2. Consequently, (Sc0.2Y0.2La0.2Ce0.2Pr0.2)2Zr2O7 has the lowest 𝜅L even at those investigated high temperatures, decreasing from 1.32 Wm−1 K− 1 at room temperature 300K to 0.18 Wm−1 K− 1 at high temperature 1600K.
As a test of the predictive capabilities of thermodynamic simulation in κ, experiments have been performed to determine the thermal transport performance of the synthesized composition (Sc0.2Y0.2La0.2Ce0.2Pr0.2)2Zr2O7 (more details can be found in Supplementary Information). As shown in Figure S4, the intrinsic 𝜅 of HEPO was calculated by eliminating the thermal radiation effect, ranging from 1.69 Wm−1 K−1 to 0.14 Wm−1 K−1 at 300K to 1473K, which matched well with the predicted κ below 1.59 Wm−1 K−1 by ML algorism and κ = 1.32 Wm−1 K−1 by first-principles at 300K. Meanwhile, both high-throughput first-principles calculation and experimental methods only contain intrinsic Umklapp scattering and extrinsic porosity scattering mechanisms. The difference of κ between thermodynamics calculations and experiments at room temperature and high temperature could be attributed to the larger porosity from the realistic experiment (ϕ = 6.8%).
With the guidance of our proposed model integrating various mechanisms impeding heat transfer, the physical and chemical properties of oxides are intimately linked by their local structure and disorder, identified as r* in this work. The previously reported room temperature thermal conductivities of the RE2Zr2O7 oxides, HEPOs on A-site (HE2Zr2O7) or B-site (RE2HE2O7) is plotted with r*, as shown in Fig. 3d and the references listed in Table S1. Compared with the RE2HE2O7, the lower κ even at a lower lattice distortion level is presented in the HE2Zr2O7 system, indicating a greater potential to adjust components for desired properties by A-site optimization.
Atomic and electronic basis for the domain knowledge design criteria
Although the HEPOs have phonon-dominated heat transport, the electronic contribution to conduct heat is also nonnegligible. Lower 𝜅 can be obtained through highly disordered interatomic forces resulting from charge disorder among ionic bonds 6. Especially, the major roles of KPPs can be uncovered from insight into the atomic and electronic basis for the coupling effects of lattice vibrations and charges on heat transfer.
In the view of strong atomic bonding characterized by the high bonding charge density (∆ρ) 36,43,44, the peaks of its line profile curve can be employed to quantitatively characterize the bonding strength of RE–O1, RE–O2 and Zr–O2 in RE2Zr2O7. As displayed in Fig. 4, the yellow isosurfaces identify the atomic sites absorbing electrons (∆ρ > 0), and the blue identifies contributing electrons (∆ρ < 0). Attributing to the size mismatch and valence electron difference of the RE atoms, the highest distribution of ∆ρ or the bonding strength is between Zr and O2 atoms and the lowest region is between RE and O2 atoms, which relates to the trend of the difference in bond length and further explains the origin of the electronic structure scale well. Based on these various views of ∆ρ isosurface, the effect of the RE elements is presented in variety on the bond structures of the resultant RE2Zr2O7. As highlighted by green dot circles in Figs. 4d and 4f, RE elements Ce and Pr result in the higher line profile values, due to the filling shells showing as either an extra point near each RE element.
In Fig. 4g, the ionic RE-O bonds present the accumulation of charges gradient distribution between RE and O atoms, ignoring the peak in RE-O1 caused by the 4f electrons of Pr and Ce. The local features of O1-RE show the peaks of each curve, indicating their bond strengths decrease in the order of Sc > Y > La > Ce > Pr. However, according to the previous observation perspective, the ∆ρ distribution between O2-Zr atoms is in the negative region implying a covalent-like bonding behavior 43. This covalent bonded in ceramics could exhibit preeminent hardness, strength, chemical inertness and so on 45. With the increase of electronegativity of RE atoms, the negative charge peak between the O2 atom and Zr atom becomes weaker, suggesting a decreased covalency of the O2-Zr bond. Meanwhile, weak atomic bonds usually lead to strong anharmonicity 46. Therefore, electronegativity is an important parameter in understanding the nature of chemical bonding and manipulating thermal conductivity 13.
Accordingly, the nature of the HEPOs bonding can be further obtained from investigating the RE cation in a local disordered environment. As shown in Figure S5, the chemistry complexity in the HEPO creates mass fluctuation and strain field fluctuations, which can disturb the regular distribution of the bonding charge density. Because the original dodecahedron-type RE − O unit blocks are highly distorted in HEPO, additional peaks are apparent in the line profiles of RE-O1 in HEPO as a result of the crystal distortion compared with RE-O1 in the 1A system. Additionally, the line profile in HEPOs is bilateral asymmetry, which is attributed to the relatively low symmetry of the local atomic environment.