Due to the low incidence of PFTC, few studies on OS and CSS have been published. To our knowledge, this is the first prognostic nomogram prognostic chart to predict 3-year and 5-year OS and CSS in patients with PFTC. More importantly, the identification of prognostic variables can help clinicians to select the best treatment option. Our study showed that age (22–56, 57–71 and 72–92), race (white, balck and other), FIGO staging (I, II, III, and IV) and laterality (lateral and bilateral) were independent prognostic factors of OS and CSS in patients with PFTC. In published nomograms, the choice of variables usually depends on clinical evidence and data availability rather than statistical significance 10. The predictive models for OS and CSS included age, race, FIGO stage, type of surgery, and lymph node dissection according to the stepwise positive results and clinical significance of multivariate Cox regression. FIGO staging, type of surgery, and age were the three most important prognostic factors, as measured by the standard deviation of the Noto scale, followed by race and lymph node dissection (Fig. 1). It is consistent with most previous studies that the most significant prognostic factors for PFTC are FIGO staging and size of postoperative residual lesions 1, 11–17.
Kaplan-Meier analysis showed similar OS and CSS at 3-year/5-year for PFTC (70.1%/55.4% and 71.7%/57.2%, respectively). In this study, 369/396 (93.2%) patients died from PFTC, suggesting that elimination of cancer is the top priority in treating patients with PFTC. As in most studies, our study shows that FIGO stage was the most relevant prognostic factor for prognosis. The 3-year/5-year OS for PFTC stage I, II, III and IV was 95.5%/90.4%, 85.9%/77.2%, 64.2%/44.3% and 51.9%/35.2%, respectively. The 3-year/5-year CSS for PFTC patients of stage I, II, III and IV were 96.4%/91.1%, 85.9%/77.2%, 66.0%/46.6% and 54.6%/37.0%, respectively. The OS and CSS were significantly lower in late PFTC (III and IV) than in early PFTC (I and II) (P < 0.001) (Fig. 5A). After correcting for the remaining confounders, the HR was 7.104 (95% CI, 3.340–15.110) and 8.87 (95% CI, 4.056–19.409) for stages III and IV compared with stage I, respectively (Table 3). A retrospective analysis of 1576 patients with PFTC diagnosed from 1988–2004 showed that the 5-year OS was 81%, 65%, 54% and 36% for stages I, II, III and IV, respectively 7. OS increased in patients with early stage PFTC and decreased in patients with late stage PFTC. How to improve survival of patients with advanced PFTC remains a challenge to be overcome.
Many studies have shown that optimal cytoreduction and minimal residual disease are important prognostic factors in advanced PFTC 11, 18. It should be noted that optimal cytoreductive measures have changed in recent years to radical surgery 19–21. Radical surgery includes extensive upper abdominal procedures such as diaphragmatic stripping and/or resection, partial hepatectomy, distal pancreatectomy, splenectomy, resection of tumor from the porta hepatis, and cholecystectomy 22. In our study, Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that patients with PFTC who underwent radical surgery had a significantly higher OS than those who underwent de-volumetric surgery (P < 0.05) (Fig. 5B). This may be due to fewer residual lesions after radical surgery. Peiretti et al. demonstrated that a more extensive surgical approach was associated with improved disease-free intervals and prolonged survival in patients with advanced PFTC 20. However, it is also important to assess whether patienst can tolerate radical surgery, focus on quality of life and balance the oncologic benefits of surgery 23, 24. Chi et al. found that incorporating extensive upper abdominal surgery into the surgical strategy significantly increaseed the rate of initial optimal cytopenia without significantly increasing perioperative morbidity and mortality22, 25. These studies indicated that the principle of primary surgery is to leave as little macroscopic disease as possible in patients with PFTC 20.
PFTC is thought to have a high propensity for lymph node metastasis secondary to its dense lymphatic supply 26. Klein et al. found median survival time of 43 and 21 months for patients with and without lymph node dissection, respectively 27. Kim et al. reported that lymphadenectomy increased OS and disease-free survival in patients with advanced PFTC 20. In present studies, the reported lymph node positivity rate was 33 to 59% 1, 12, 26. Only 25.3% of patients in this study had positive lymph nodes and 57.6% underwent lymph node dissection. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that only resection of more than 3 lymph nodes significantly improved OS in patients with PFTC (P < 0.05) (Fig. 5C). In contrast, there was no statistically significant difference in multivariate Cox regression. Nevertheless, we recommended lymph node dissection because routine lymph node sampling and dissection is necessary for proper staging27. In addition, Semrad et al. found that many patients with unclear initial lymph node status later relapsed, possibly because of the persistence of lymphatic disease 28.
Stewart et al. found a similar distribution of left-sided disease (45.4%) and right-sided disease (42%) in a population-based study, with bilateral disease accounting for 7.7% of cases29. In our study, we saw a similar distribution of left-sided disease (40.8%) and right-sided disease (46.7%), with bilateral involvement in 12.5% of cases. Fewer studies have performed on the prognostic impact of laterality on PFTC. A retrospective study of 36 patients with PFTC found that tumor laterality was a significant prognostic factor in predicting disease-free survival, while the diagnosis of left-sided disease significantly increased the risk of death (HR, 4.236; 95% CI, 1.37–13.10; P < 0.05) 13. However, our study showed no statistical difference between left and right involvement in predicting OS and CSS in patients with PFTC, while the diagnosis of bilateral disease significantly increased the risk of death (HR, 1.543; 95% CI, 1.084–2.195; P < 0.05) (Fig. 5D).
The prognostic significance of histology and histologic grading in PFTC remains controversial. Rosen et al., Cabrero et al. and Hellstrom et al. concluded that histologic grading was a significant prognostic factor, while histologic grading was not a significant prognostic factor in other studies 8, 16, 30–32. Although most studies did not find prognostic significance of histology 1, 7, 12, Riska et al. demonstrated a 5-year OS of 37% in patients with plasmacytoma and 17% in patients with non-plasmacytoma 14. In addition, Kietpeerakool et al. found in multivariate Cox regression that patients with plasmacytoma were 7.5 times more likely to experience recurrence than patients with non-plasmacytoma 33. In our study, we did not find that histology and histologic grading were associated with survival in patients with PFTC.
In our study, the optimal age cut-off points were 56 and 71 years, which could better differentiate OS in patients with PFTC (Fig. 5E). The mean age at diagnosis in our study was 64 years, which is consistent with the previously reported 64 years16, 34. In our study, age was an independent prognostic factor for OS and CSS in patients with PFTC. Mortality rates for women aged 57–71 and 72–92 years versus those aged 22–56 years were 1.525 (95% CI, 1.064–2.185) and 2.110 (95% CI, 1.416–3.144), respectively. Wethington et al. demonstrated that advanced age was an independent predictor of reduced survival in patients with PFTC, with a HR of 1.78 (95% CI, 1.51–2.11) for death in patients over 65 years of age. In addition, Gadducci et al. demonstrated that older age (> 58.5 years) was independently associated with poorer survival (HR, 2.3; 95% CI, 1.1–4.7) 12.
To our knowledge, this is the first study to include race in the survival analysis and found that race was an independent prognostic factor for patients with PFTC. In this study, 84.6% of PFTC patients were white and 6% were black, which is similar to the results of Wethington’s study, in which 87% were white and 7% were black 7. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that OS was significantly lower in white patients than in patients of other races (P < 0.05) (Fig. 5F). In multivariate Cox regression, the HR for death was 0.508 (95% CI, 0.266–0.972) and 0.598 (95% CI, 0.362–0.987) for black patients and patients of other races versus white patients, respectively. The impact of race on the prognosis of PFTC needs to be further investigated.
Although this study included a large number of patients, it still has some limitations. As a retrospective study, it is prone to information bias, and direct removal of missing data may increase bias. However, population-based data can be regarded as randomly distributed, reducing bias to some extent. In addition, we did not further analyze the prognostic impact of chemotherapy and recurrence due to the lack of information on chemotherapy regimens, recurrence, and cytoreductive status in the SEER database, and our use of different types of surgery to assess cytoreductive status may have been biased. Finally, the training cohort and test cohort data were obtained from the SEER database and lacked validation of other data. Nevertheless, the SEER registry covering approximately 34.6% of the US population is reasonablely representative. The widely distributed patient data from 17 US regions minimizes potential selection bias 9. In addition, our population-based study identified prognostic factors for patients with PFTC, providing a more effective treatment strategy for patients with PFTC.