The destruction of the locked-segment type landslide is often accompanied by the destruction of the locked segment with cumulative effects. These landslides quickly form high-speed, long-distance landslides and can be severe safety concerns. Physical models are used to study the evolution of retaining-wall locked segment landslides in the paper. HCA726S tilt sensors, micro earth pressure sensor, pore water pressure sensor and strain gauges were used to monitor the tilting deformation, slope stress, and failure characteristics of locked-segment type landslide. According to the landslide tilting deformation curve, strain, and earth pressure of the locked segment, the locked segment plays a crucial role in controlling the stability of a landslide. Here, the failure criterion of the locked segment is put forward. A landslide prediction model is proposed based on the angle-time curve of the tertiary creep stage. Using the improved angle tangent method, the landslide enters the creep stage of initial acceleration, medium acceleration, and high acceleration when the tilting angles are 0.34°, 1.89°, and 4.38°, respectively. The failure time of landslide with the locked segment predicted by the reciprocal velocity method is 5809 s, which is consistent with the actual time of the test (5800s).