Impact of landscapes dynamics and intensity on ecological land in major Ethiopia cities

20 Background: Understanding the dependence of ecological land to dynamics of human-nature- 21 coupled landscape is crucial for urban ecosystem resilience. The aim of present study is, explored 22 and compared the spaciotemporal responses of ecological land to urban landscape dynamics in 23 Bahir Dar, Addis Ababa, Adama and Hawassa cities for the last three decades (1990–2020). Three 24 sets of Landsat satellite images from 1990 to 2020 and four urban land indexes were used to 25 produce landscape maps and geospatial data analysis. 26 Result: The result analysis showed the substantial expansion in built up ecosystem which was 27 manifested at the cost of ecological land. The built-up ecosystem totaled 17,491.2ha in 1990, which 28 augmented to 42,298ha (141.8%) in 2020 with an average annual growth rate of 33.73%. A total 29 of 40.97% of the prolonged built-up area was obtained from urban agricultural land alone. 30 Moreover, urban sprawl is likely to continue, which will be outweighed by the loss of open space 31 ecosystem. Besides, land use intensity (LUI) of each city in the years 1990 - 2020 were Addis 32 Ababa (3.31), Hawassa (4.82), Adama (5.04), and Bahir Dar (3.56). Moreover, Integrated land 33 use dynamics degree (ILUDD) was for Addis Ababa (1.7%), Bahir Dar (4.17%), Adama (2.25%) 34 and Hawassa (4.83%). This confirmed that the spatial distribution LUI was significant consistency 35 with ILUDD in all cities. 36 Conclusions: LUI dynamics pattern was followed “urban ecological land to multi-complex 37 human-dominance ecosystem, with a signiﬁcant influence on urban greenery and ecosystem 38 services provides. Thus, in all cities, the implementation of effective ecological land management 39 and urban planning policies are required for ensure economic development and ecosystem 40 resilience. 41


47
Urbanization and associated massive landscape change has led a substantial change on the quantity   In contrast, ecological lands (urban forest and greenery water bodies) are being converted to 71 impervious surface and residential, industrial, and commercial systems. Generally, rapid sprawl 72 has created social, economic, and political instabilities that can be attributed to governance and   Table 1). Additionally, the cities were chosen for the study in order to maximize the probability 93 of detecting changes in ecological landscapes due to urban sprawl. The size of four cities 94 comprising the study total area was 102761.3ha. 96 In this study, three decades' time-series LULC change maps for each city were prepared by utilized 97 multispectral Landsat imagery (Landsat TM, ETM+, and land OLI), which were retrieved on four 98 distinct dates: 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020 (Table 2). The images were taken in the dry season to 99 reduce the impact of the cloud on the result. The radiometric correction, geometrical correction, 100 and atmospheric correction of the images were done using the ERDAS 14 software. Later, a 101 supervised (maximum likelihood algorithms) image classification technique was used for LULC 102 classification. More than 50 spectral signatures have been taken as a typical signature for each 103 LULC type, which has been acquired using a GPS device; Google Earth was applied for validation 104 of the LULC type. The number of GCPs for each class was assigned by area proportion of the land 105 uses. The LULC map of each city were categorized into five classes: urban forest and greenery, 106 urban agriculture, urban built, bare, and water (Table 3). The LULC change detection was carried 107 out using spatial automatic overlay analysis and the Zonal Tabulate Area function in ArcGIS 108 version 10.4 to generate the Markov chain transition matrix of the study area. Then, the post-classification process was executed by recoding, majority filtering, clumping, elimination, and 110 mosaicking of the classified maps to reduce errors in the produced maps.

111
The overall producer's accuracy of LULC maps over the study period of each city (AA, AD, BD,  To evidently reveal the spatial relations between LULC change and response for anthropogenic -119 sustainability in urban ecosystem nexus, we first compute LULC dynamics rate for a specific and (4) 141 Where LA(i,t1) and LA(i,t2) characterize the area of land use type i at time t1 and t2, respectively.

142
ΔLAi-j is the area of land use type i transformed to land use type j (j=1, 2, n, i ≠ j) during the study 143 period, n is the number of land use types in the study area, T is the study period, and Di is the The spatio-temporal land use dynamics degree of each city with the corresponding proportion is 157 illustrated in Table 3 Figure 3).

225
In Addis Ababa city, bare land experienced the least persistent, whereas urban built up were the 226 most persistent ecosystem type (Table 4). The net change in persistence ratio was large for bare 227 land (negative), urban agriculture land (negative), urban forest, and greenery (negative), and built-228 up land (positive). Overall, 22841.5 ha of the total ecosystem remains unaffected (Table 4).  (Table 4).   Conversely, from 1990 to 2020, the ILUDD in Addis Ababa, Bahir Dar, Adama and Hawassa 276 cities were 1.7%, 4.17%, 2.25% and, 4.83% respectively (Table 3). Moreover, the ILUDD was and southeastern parts of the city (Figure 8).

292
The high-value ecosystem of ILUDD were found in urban center and then augmented to the north 293 and southwest parts of Addis Ababa city. The northern part was dominated by urban forest and 294 greenery, and the economic development was slower than that of other parts. Adama city that 295 experienced higher ILUDD between the periods 1990 -2020 was mainly distributed on the 296 northeast and southeast parts also saw rapid land use change, mainly caused by rapid urbanization 297 and expansion of industrial zones. Moreover, Bahir Dar city also saw rapid land use change with 298 higher ILUDD were mainly located in central with the bi-fractured direction of the city (Figure 7).

299
The overall dynamics LUIs of each city in the years 1990 -2020 were 3.31, 4.82, 5.04, and 3.56,

300
for Addis Ababa, Hawassa, Adama, and Bahir dar cities respectively. In all cities, LUIs growing 301 tendency was found from 1990 to 2000 at a growth rate of 4%. However, the magnitude of the 302 growth rate of LUI was slightly increased with the rate of 15% in the period of 2000 to 2010 and 303 23% in the period of 2010 to 2020, and 42%, and overall augmented by 42% from 1990 to 2020 304 ( Table 5). The results also show that both the land-use intensity and the growth rate continued to 305 increase from 1990 to 2020. The spatial distribution of LUI change during these study periods 306 demonstrated significant consistency with ILUDD in Ethiopia cities (Figure 7). Moreover, cities 307 with rapid economic development in Ethiopia commonly have high input and high output on land, 308 cities with higher LUI increases were mainly located in rapidly developing economic cities.  The result of this study exhibited that significant slice of the landscapes in the in each city exposed   (Table 3). Moreover, during the first phase of the study the ILUDD

388
The present study analyzed the dynamics between land and urbanization of four rapidly developing 389 cities of Ethiopia from economical value and spatial point of view. There were substantial 390 dynamics in the urban to built-up ecosystem of each city over the study period, and the overall 391 spatial pattern was followed "urban agriculture → urban forest and greenery → open space → 392 built up" from urban agricultural to multi-complex human-dominance ecosystem, with a 393 significant influence on ecological land and ecosystem services provides. Moreover, the direction,