This is a preprint, a preliminary version of a manuscript that has not completed peer review at a journal. Research Square does not conduct peer review prior to posting preprints. The posting of a preprint on this server should not be interpreted as an endorsement of its validity or suitability for dissemination as established information or for guiding clinical practice.
A new preprint design is coming!
We have improved readability, clarity, accessibility, and opportunities for engagement.
Research Article
Dan Xiao
China National Clinical Research Center for Neurological Diseases, Beijing Tiantan Hospital
Corresponding Author
License:
This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License. Read Full License
We developed a stochastic model to simulate the process of the epidemic of novel coronavirus pneumonia in China. The study provides valuable reference to understand the transmission mechanism of the novel coronavirus and evaluate the influence of intervention meaures. We established a stochastic individual-based model, and simulated the whole process of occurrence, development, and control of the epidemic, and the infectors and patients leaving Hubei Province before the traffic was closed. Additionally, the R0 and the number of infectors and patients who left Hubei were estimated using the coordinate descent algorithm. The median R0 at the initial stage of the epidemic predicted by the model was 4.97 (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.82- 5.17). Before the traffic lockdown in Hubei , an estimated 2000 (95% CI, 1982–2030) infectors and patients left Hubei and traveled throughout the country. The model estimated that as of March 15, the cumulative number of laboratory-confirmed patients in Hubei and other provinces would reach 42,739 (95% CI, 32734-55472) and 12,870 (95% CI, 11520-14572), respectively. If the government had taken prevention and control measures 1 day later, the cumulative number of laboratory- confirmed patients in the whole country would increase by 32.1%. If the lockdown of Hubei was taken 1 day in advance, it is estimated that the cumulative number of laboratory-confirmed patients in other provinces would decrease by 7.7%. The stochastic model could fit the officially issued data well and simulate the evolution process of the epidemic. Intervention measurements nationwide have effectively curbed human-to-human transmission of the virus.
Keywords
COVID-19, China, basic reproductive number, randomization, model
Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3
Figure 4
Figure 5
Figure 6
This is a list of supplementary files associated with this preprint. Click to download.
Loading...
Badges
Prescreen
This manuscript passed our Prescreen assessment
Complete author information
Appropriate declaration statements
Potential risks to human health
Prescreen
History
CURRENT STATUS: Published
View the published article at Scientific Reports.
Version 1
Posted 28 Apr, 2020
Metrics
Comments: 0
PDF Downloads: ...
HTML Views: ...
Subject Areas
Statistical Epidemiology
Learn more about our company.
A new preprint design is coming!
We have improved readability, clarity, accessibility, and opportunities for engagement.
This is a preprint, a preliminary version of a manuscript that has not completed peer review at a journal. Research Square does not conduct peer review prior to posting preprints. The posting of a preprint on this server should not be interpreted as an endorsement of its validity or suitability for dissemination as established information or for guiding clinical practice.
Research Article
Dan Xiao
China National Clinical Research Center for Neurological Diseases, Beijing Tiantan Hospital
Corresponding Author
Badges
Prescreen
This manuscript passed our Prescreen assessment
Complete author information
Appropriate declaration statements
Potential risks to human health
Prescreen
History
CURRENT STATUS: Published
View the published article at Scientific Reports.
Version 1
Posted 28 Apr, 2020
Metrics
Comments: 0
PDF Downloads: ...
HTML Views: ...
Subject Areas
Statistical Epidemiology
License:
This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License. Read Full License
View the published article at Scientific Reports.
We developed a stochastic model to simulate the process of the epidemic of novel coronavirus pneumonia in China. The study provides valuable reference to understand the transmission mechanism of the novel coronavirus and evaluate the influence of intervention meaures. We established a stochastic individual-based model, and simulated the whole process of occurrence, development, and control of the epidemic, and the infectors and patients leaving Hubei Province before the traffic was closed. Additionally, the R0 and the number of infectors and patients who left Hubei were estimated using the coordinate descent algorithm. The median R0 at the initial stage of the epidemic predicted by the model was 4.97 (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.82- 5.17). Before the traffic lockdown in Hubei , an estimated 2000 (95% CI, 1982–2030) infectors and patients left Hubei and traveled throughout the country. The model estimated that as of March 15, the cumulative number of laboratory-confirmed patients in Hubei and other provinces would reach 42,739 (95% CI, 32734-55472) and 12,870 (95% CI, 11520-14572), respectively. If the government had taken prevention and control measures 1 day later, the cumulative number of laboratory- confirmed patients in the whole country would increase by 32.1%. If the lockdown of Hubei was taken 1 day in advance, it is estimated that the cumulative number of laboratory-confirmed patients in other provinces would decrease by 7.7%. The stochastic model could fit the officially issued data well and simulate the evolution process of the epidemic. Intervention measurements nationwide have effectively curbed human-to-human transmission of the virus.
Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3
Figure 4
Figure 5
Figure 6
This is a list of supplementary files associated with this preprint. Click to download.
Loading...