Background: Changing disease prevalence over time is an important factor in projecting for future health system requirements. Case studies and analysis of the impact of environmental and climate change on diseases affecting humans have been done in various parts of the world, providing a range of data points and interpretations. A unique subset of the published literature are statistical causality studies that infer the impact of certain environmental factors on incidence frequencies of some diseases that afflict humans. Occurrence of such frequencies in a periodic manner generate time series that could be utilised to develop future forecast predictions known as projections.
Methods: This study uses the Granger’s statistical causality method to assess the relationship between environmental variables and the prevalence of two diseases (Asthma and Melanoma) and presents projections using appropriate time series methodology to inform the health service planning requirements of the state of New South Wales (NSW).
Results: Causality between Air quality and Asthma incidence as well as Solar irradiance and Melanoma incidence are established through statistical significance measures as a contribution. Thereafter time series based forecast projections are provided for both the diseases as another contribution.
Conclusion: Statistical causality between environmental and health disease related linked variables have been established for Asthma and Melanoma, and subsequently disease incidence frequency projections in the form of point and interval estimates for the NSW state in Australia have been provided.