This is a study evaluating the short- and long-term mortality and risk factors affecting elderly patients with different glomerular filtration rate after hip fracture in China. It was revealed that after correcting the main clinical covariates, renal function was a risk factor associated with long-term mortality after hip fracture not short-term. Our analysis also confirmed that the mortality of hip fracture increased with age, decreased renal function, cognitive function and, at the same time, protective factors such as albumin level, female gender, and operation reduce the mortality odds.
With the kidney function declines, the mortality of elderly patients with different after hip fracture keep rising with years. The one-year mortality rate was 9.3%, 19.81%, 22.53%, five-year mortality rate was 21.87%, 55.86%, 78.87%, and ten-year mortality rate was 40.61%, 74.32%, 94.37% for each group with diffferent eGFR. Some studies confirmed that after adjusting for age, weight, low BMD, and a history of osteoporosis, renal function remained an important predictor of hip fracture prevalence[10].Hip fracture-related mortality is 2 times higher in elderly patients with grade III CKD[11]. Furthermore, a study proved that 44.7% of hip-fracture-related deaths among older people with eGFR < 45ml/min/1.73m2 appeared to be attributable to the kidney dysfunction itself[12]. Similarly, this result was compatible with ours that with the decline of kidney function. Another study included the patients of CKD stages 3–5, part of whom were on renal replacement therapy, and follow up the risk of hip fracture and mortality in 5.5 years. Interestingly, the results showed that the risk of mortality after hip fracture increased only in CKD 4[13]. However, this was not completely consistent with our research, which may due to the fact that the average age of the study was 63.3 years old, while the population included in our study were over 65 years old, with an average age of 82.64 years old and age was a risk a factor in our study. In CKD patients, the prevalence of fracture in older adults (> 65 years) is about 23.4%-35.8%. Patients with normal eGFR aged 70–79 year-old and 80–89 year-old had a 1.2 times and 1.9 times higher risk of 30-day mortality than patient aged 60–69 year-old[14].Moreover, elderly patients had a higher risk of falling because of increased frailty, comorbidity and intense medication regimens[12]. CKD and aging exacerbated losses of cortical and trabecular micro-architecture and each resulted in thinner, more porous cortices and fewer and thinner trabeculae[15]. Thus, it can be predicted that the combination of aging and renal insufficiency may be linked to increase the mortality.
Interestingly, our study found that decreased renal function had little effect on one-year mortality in elderly patients with hip fracture, but increased 5-year and 10-year mortality. According to our study, the one-year mortality was 9.3% in the patients with eGFR > 90 ml/min/1.73m2, lower than 19.81% in patients with eGFR60-89mL/min/1.73m2 and 22.53% in patients with eGFR < 60 mL/min/1.73m2. But there was no statistical difference. This was consistent with other studies that reported mortality rates between 8% and 36% during the first year[16]. However, another prospective study indentified the risk factors for one-year mortality in patients with hip fracture and found that impaired renal function had strong association with increased mortality at 1 year after hip fracture [17]. Compared with non-CKD patients, Patients with CKD had higher mortality at both 90 days and 1 year (hazard ratio 1.69 and 1.84, respectively).There was also a study confirmed that patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) were more likely to develop AKI (30.8%) that those without it (17.2%, p = 0.018) after hip fracture[18]. But the mortality seemed to have little difference and eGFR was not the risk factor that affect one-year mortality in our study. Firstly, we didn’t exclude AKI from our inclusion and exclusion criteria, so there may be data bias. At the same time, the patients included in our study had not yet reached the diagnostic standards of CKD.While decreased kidney function was an important risk factor for the five to ten years’ mortality after hip fracture. Maybe high risk of mortality after hip fracture are attributable to both the old age and comorbidity.People with decreased eGFR were more likely to have complications after surgery, were prone to have renal osteodystrophy and easy to have systemic immune compromise[19]. A population-based study in Singapore found that patients with hip fracture, and pre-fracture CCI (Charlson Comorbidity Index) ≥ 4 had a higher risk of mortality (RR 3.29,95%CI (3.01–3.59)) [20]. In elderly patient with hip fracture, cardiac function was an independent factor of mortality. A study assessed the early and late mortality after hip fracture between heart failure (HF) and non-HF showed that the short- and long-term mortality were higher in patients diagnosed with HF and in the subgroup analysis, moderate-to-severe HF was 4 times higher than mild HF[20]. Our study also illustrated that people with decreased renal function often had worse cardiac function. From our study, patients with lower eGFR had worse cardiac function. The cardiac function of 68% and 24% patients with eGFR between 60 and 89mL/min/1.73m2 and eGFR < 60 mL/min/1.73m2 were NYHA II-III. Another comorbidity was pulmonary disease. Study shown pulmonary disease account for approximately 35% of the poor prognoses of CKD patients and the incidence of septic shock among elderly CKD patients has been rising, especially in patient after hip fracture[21, 22]. Another possible mechanism put forward for the association between renal impairment and the increasing long-term mortality after hip fracture was as follows: as time goes by and the progression of CKD, abnormalities of mineral metabolism occurred. Abnormal calcium-phosphate metabolism, decreased levels of circulating calcitriol and increased levels of parathyroid hormone (PTH), together result in renal osteodystrophy[23]. Compared with baseline, bone changes annually in patients with CKD 2-5D. With the extension of follow-up, the cortical area (-2.9%,95% CI (-3.7, -2.2)), density (-1.3%,95%CI (-1.6, -0.6)) and thickness (-2.8%,95%CI (-3.6,-1.9)) were significantly declined[24, 25]. Thus, it can be suspected that in both macro and micro perspectives, CKD could reduce bone quality to exacerbate the incidence of fracture and death.
In our study, receiving surgical treatment was a major protective factor that affects the short-term and long-term mortality of patients with hip fracture. The location of the fracture determines different treatment methods and surgical methods. Although recently studies demonstrated that for most individuals with hip fracture, the most common surgical method was internal fixation (55.8%), whereas 29.2%-31.6% of individuals underwent partial hip replacement, and 2.4% of individuals received a total hip replacement. Only a small percentage of patients were treated conservatively or died within 3 days of the hip fracture. While over the 14 years of study, due to the improvements in anesthesia, surgical techniques and early rehabilitation, the outcomes after hip fracture were greatly improved[26]. Those people who didn’t get surgical treatment usually have high risk of death, suggesting that surgery is an effective way to reduce mortality. Excessive blood loss, pneumonia, cardiovascular disease, pressure sores may contribute to the death of patients receiving conservative treatment[27]. These results were compatible with ours that early and effective surgical treatment can greatly improve survival after hip fracture.
Some limitations of our study needed to be mentioned. First of all, we were unable to dynamically follow up the changes in patients’ renal function during the follow-up process. And we didn’t record the causes of renal dysfunction, such as nephrotic syndrome, diabetic nephropathy, etc. Secondly, Due to the limitation of experimental conditions, not everyone included in our study had been tested for bone metabolism markers like parathyroid hormone, 25-hydroxyvitamin D with hip fracture. Thirdly, we didn’t record the bone mineral density and geriatric composite assessments, which have great effect on the patients after hip fracture, and we were unable to compare their interaction with decreased renal function. Finally, we didn’t take the effects of anti-osteoporosis drugs after fractures into consideration.