Since the beginning of the new millennium, Australia has suffered climate extremes of increasing severity, withstanding catastrophic droughts, floods, and bushfires (Colvin et al., 2020). Recent climate extremes in Australia include ‘The Millennial Drought’ and the 2017–2020 drought, the historic ‘East Australian Floods’ across Queensland and NSW, and the ‘Black Summer’ bushfires, the most destructive series of bushfires in Australian history. The effects of these climate extremes compound the severity of successive disasters (Hoffmann et al., 2019; Kemter et al., 2021), and the impacts across environmental, economic, and social sectors have caused great concern for Australia’s future.
The hot and dry conditions across Australia’s landscape between 2017 and 2020 resulted in abundant fuel in bush and grasslands. As a result, from the beginning of July 2019, bushfires raged across all parts of the country, with New South Wales (NSW) and the Australian Capital Territory (ACT) the worst affected. In NSW alone, the Black Summer bushfires resulted in 5.4 million hectares being burned, an estimated 800 million animals killed, 2,439 homes destroyed, and 25 deaths (Hughes et al., 2020). The economic, social, and environmental effects of the Black Summer bushfires will be felt for many years. Additionally, the effects of the bushfires caused adverse conditions that were exposed following the heavy rains that extinguished the fires in February 2020, then peaked in March 2021.
Drought is also associated with high temperatures, particularly in the summer months. The effects of drought within NSW have been catastrophic, with average record temperatures continually being broken in recent years. For example, 2019 was the hottest year recorded in Australian history, with mean temperatures 1.52°C above average (Hughes et al., 2020; Losso et al., 2022). In addition to record temperatures, rainfall levels were measured at all-time lows throughout 2018–2019, which were southeast Australia’s driest years on record (Bureau of Meteorology, 2021). According to new studies from the NSW/ACT Regional Climate Modelling (NARClim) project, the trend for drought and its related effects is expected to intensify continually. The NARClim model forecasts regional climate scenarios, making its outcomes relevant to this research conducted in regional NSW. NARClim simulations project, depending on location and season, that between 2060–2079 day time maximum temperatures may increase by 3.5°C, areas may see a threefold increase in heatwave days, and an Australian wide increase on average of more than a week of days over 30°C (Herold et al., 2018). Figure 1 displays the NARClim predicted monthly future temperature change projections.
The most recent climate extreme has been extensive flooding across NSW and Queensland following the drought and bushfires. In March 2021, the East Australian floods broke many records; this month included the wettest week for coastal NSW since records began (Han et al., 2021; Kelly & Kuleshov, 2022). Aside from the benefits of replenishing catchments and providing long-needed recharge to rivers and reservoirs, the floods caused damage to infrastructure and eroded soil left vulnerable by the drought and bushfires. A flood following a drought or bushfire significantly affects water quality as it provides a mode of eroded material and pollutant transport and yields higher runoff rates due to increased precipitation rates (Alexandra & Finlayson, 2020; Dahm et al., 2015; Delpla et al., 2009).
The extent of the drought and subsequent conditions of a water body can impact the severity of the effects on water quality (Mishra et al., 2021; Mosley, 2015). Reduced rainfall can affect a body of water as both water volume and flow decrease. Reduced volume or flow may cause the inability of a system to flush via outflow, raising levels of nutrients, turbidity, and algal blooms (Mosley, 2015). Drought causes water bodies to turn from lotic to lentic as a system customarily associated with flow becomes stagnant, altering how an ecosystem operates. This provides a mode for increasing microorganism production and changing physical and chemical characteristics (Vazquez et al., 2011). This change can be attributed to the reduced dilution of properties within the water, creating higher concentrations. Thermal stratification is also a common result of increased ambient temperature and often leads to lowered dissolved oxygen, causing eutrophication (Mosley, 2015). The smaller the water volume, the greater the change in water temperature can occur due to higher ambient temperatures. The correlation between the effects of volume, flow, and high ambient temperatures within drought and the rising likelihood of adverse effects are directly associated (Greenough et al., 2001).
Extreme climate events provide challenges for LGAs to meet the Australian drinking water quality guidelines (ADWG). As the ADWG provide a holistic management approach for water quality management, NSW Health’s public health regulator has endorsed the requirements for use by water utilities, private suppliers, and water carters (Byleveld et al., 2016). Each of the LGAs nominated in this research has faced different challenges during droughts, bushfires, and floods. Following an intense drought between 2017–2020, which included record-breaking dry spells (Bureau of Meteorology, 2021) and all-time high yearly average temperatures (Hughes et al., 2020), regional areas in NSW faced difficult water supply and management conditions. The unprecedented drought highlighted the challenges for water security in larger settlements within central NSW.
As extreme weather events are expected to continue and, in many cases, increase in severity, the changing context requires research into how regional NSW centres can adapt and accommodate a water quality and supply system already facing significant challenges. This research examines the effects of climate extremes on water quality and supply management for NSW regional centres through several case studies. It provides water management and future planning recommendations for the specified LGAs, documenting the different scenarios that will assist in targeted responses for future inevitable climate extremes and LGAs facing similar challenges.