4.1 Descriptive analysis
According to the statistical description and analysis of the survey data of sample enterprises in case provinces (cities), the current situation of emission reduction presents the following characteristics in both horizontal and vertical aspects.
(1) From a horizontal perspective, there are great differences in industrial CO2 emissions in different regions. The average carbon emissions of enterprises in Beijing are significantly higher than those in the other three provinces and cities; additionally, the average CO2 emissions of each enterprise in the thermal power industry, steel industry, and chemical industry rank first in Beijing. The average emissions of thermal power enterprises in Beijing are 2.21 times that of Shanghai, 1.56 times that of Guangdong Province, and 2.08 times that of Hubei Province. See Table 3 for details.
Table 3
Comparison of three-year average emissions of enterprises in three industries in four provinces and cities (100 million tons).
| Thermal power industry | Steel industry | Chemical industry |
Shanghai | 328.98 | 1,253.82 | 71.12 |
Beijing | 725.49 | 2,125.39 | 132.99 |
Guangdong | 466.43 | 507.18 | 125.17 |
Hubei | 348.10 | 1,486.40 | 35.17 |
Data source: Questionnaire survey.
(2) From the vertical point of view, the CO2 emissions from three carbon-intensive industries in the sample area are increasing yearly. So, it shows the rapid development of China's industrial sector; yet, it also shows China's emission reduction is imminent, and enterprises will face great pressure to achieve emission reduction targets. Notably, Shanghai has the highest growth rate, and the growth rates of the thermal power industry and steel industry have exceeded 10%. The growth rates of the other three provinces and cities are similar, but there is no obvious difference. The chemical industry has the lowest growth rate, especially in Beijing and Guangdong Province. The growth rate of Beijing in the third year is only 0.07%. See Table 4 for details.
Table 4
Carbon dioxide emission growth rate of enterprises in three industries in four provinces and cities (%).
Provinces and cities | Year 2 | | Year 3 | |
Thermal power industry | Steel industry | Chemical industry | | Thermal power industry | Steel industry | Chemical industry |
Shanghai | 10.61 | 11.14 | 5.47 | | 10.49 | 10.48 | 6.51 |
Beijing | 4.84 | 4.28 | 4.83 | | 5.25 | 4.55 | 0.07 |
Guangdong | 5.60 | 4.50 | 2.90 | | 5.45 | 3.56 | 1.73 |
Hubei | 10.20 | 4.62 | 3.46 | | 6.42 | 3.30 | 3.28 |
Generally speaking, from the change range of the average CO2 emissions of sample enterprises in each sample area, the CO2 emissions of the chemical industry are smaller than those of other industries, and the emissions of Hubei Province are the least, which is 0.47 times of the average. CO2 emissions from the steel industry are the highest, and Beijing has the highest emissions, with an average of 212,539,330,000 tons in three years, while Shanghai has the highest growth rate, increasing from 112,644,922,400 tons to 138,309,411,600 tons in three years, with an average annual growth rate of 10.81%, which is rapid. CO2 emissions from the thermal power industry is the highest in Beijing, with an average of 72,549.36 million tons in three years, while the average of other provinces and cities is only 38,117.404 million tons. The average emissions of enterprises in all three industries in Beijing rank first; the average emissions of enterprises in the thermal power industry and chemical industry in Shanghai are the lowest; and the average emissions of enterprises in the iron and steel industry in Guangdong Province are the lowest. See Table 5 for the average CO2 emissions of the three major industries in the four provinces in the sample area in three years.
Table 5
Average CO2 emissions of industrial enterprises (10,000 tons).
Industry | Year | Shanghai | Beijing | Guangdong | Hubei | Average |
Thermal power industry enterprises | Year 1 | 2,965,478 | 6,905,722 | 4,414,714 | 3,189,054 | 3,997,277 |
Year 2 | 3,279,990 | 7,239,669 | 4,662,079 | 3,514,314 | 4,308,750 |
Year 3 | 3,624,051 | 7,619,418 | 4,916,221 | 3,739,762 | 4,638,699 |
Mean | 3,289,839 | 7,254,936 | 4,664,338 | 3,481,044 | 4,314,909 |
Steel industry enterprises | Year 1 | 11,264,492 | 20,351,809 | 4,865,452 | 14,261,192 | 11,063,103 |
Year 2 | 12,519,083 | 21,222,599 | 5,084,585 | 14,919,489 | 11,934,547 |
Year 3 | 13,830,941 | 22,187,389 | 5,265,466 | 15,411,204 | 12,800,994 |
Mean | 12,538,172 | 21,253,933 | 5,071,834 | 14,863,962 | 11,932,881 |
Chemical industry enterprises | Year 1 | 671,327 | 1,288,176 | 1,220,852 | 339,993 | 710,653 |
Year 2 | 708,045 | 1,350,334 | 1,256,229 | 351,770 | 743,961 |
Year 3 | 754,132 | 1,351,293 | 1,277,983 | 363,309 | 775,041 |
Mean | 711,168 | 1,329,934 | 1,251,688 | 351,690 | 743,219 |
Data source: Questionnaire survey.
The directional distance function is used to calculate the CO2 shadow price of sample enterprises for three years (Chen and Liu, 2018). The shadow price is the marginal CO2 emission reduction cost of enterprises; namely, the theoretical equilibrium price of carbon trading, which can provide a reference for carbon market pricing. The calculation of the shadow price is used to explain and analyze the marginal emission reduction cost of each enterprise.
The marginal carbon emission reduction costs of sample enterprises are quite different and increasing. See Table 6 for details. By comparing the marginal carbon emission reduction costs of sample enterprises in three industries in four regions, it can be found that the lowest value of the marginal carbon emission reduction costs of the three industries in Shanghai are the smallest among the four pilot cities. As a pilot city with a developed economy, Shanghai has continuously introduced and implemented relevant carbon emission reduction policies, and local enterprises have taken measures such as equipment transformation, technological innovation, and the use of environmentally friendly materials in industrial emission reduction to reduce the marginal carbon emission reduction costs. The marginal carbon emission reduction costs of enterprises in the Guangdong and Hubei provinces are higher than those in the other two provinces and cities—especially in the steel industry and chemical industry. On the one hand, there are differences in industrial development between regions; on the other hand, it also shows the enterprises in these two regions are slow to update their CO2 emission reduction equipment and technology—or the government's emission reduction efforts are insufficient. Therefore, the region must make significant progress in industrial emission reduction. From the industry point of view, enterprises in the iron and steel industry and chemical industry are higher than those in the thermal power industry, which is related to the fact that the thermal power industry, as the first batch of emission reduction enterprises, has officially started the national carbon emission trading market. Therefore, given this, other industries should also be included in the emission reduction target enterprises as soon as possible.
The marginal cost of carbon emission reduction for each enterprise is different and shows an upward trend, which indicates industrial emission reduction has no advantage, and the future development trend is to purchase forest carbon sinks to offset carbon emissions. The marginal cost of carbon emission reduction in various industries is high and there are great differences. As the demand increases, enterprises will want to consider purchasing forest carbon sinks, and the carbon sink market transactions will be carried out, which is also the significance of this study.
Table 6
Comparison of average marginal emission reduction costs of sample enterprises in different regions and industries (yuan/ton).
Industry | Year | Shanghai | Beijing | Guangdong | Hubei |
Minimum | Highest | Minimum | Highest | Minimum | Highest | Minimum | Highest |
Thermal power industry | Year 1 | 303.03 | 729.83 | 303.03 | 1,471.57 | 726.94 | 1,229.92 | 852.12 | 1,178.26 |
Year 2 | 303.03 | 779.18 | 538.96 | 1,020.68 | 649.02 | 823.68 | 887.66 | 4,627.56 |
Year 3 | 303.03 | 1,133.13 | 303.03 | 1,456.74 | 1,017.88 | 1,248.95 | 1,409.09 | 1,545.02 |
Steel industry | Year 1 | 303.03 | 816.30 | 410.28 | 579.16 | 303.04 | 1,011.54 | 359.65 | 517.71 |
Year 2 | 303.04 | 1,120.83 | 573.02 | 1,576.43 | 426.82 | 1,361.52 | 727.94 | 1,600.94 |
Year 3 | 303.03 | 1,975.53 | 770.22 | 1,289.81 | 1,200.41 | 2,744.07 | 996.56 | 1,243.00 |
Chemical industry | Year 1 | 303.03 | 446.49 | 474.76 | 534.75 | 476.11 | 608.71 | 303.03 | 671.49 |
Year 2 | 303.03 | 764.16 | 440.28 | 601.87 | 595.68 | 708.51 | 303.04 | 917.03 |
Year 3 | 303.02 | 27,660.20 | 303.02 | 1,686.43 | 2,491.72 | 3,660.70 | 593.63 | 6,139.93 |
4.2 Estimated results
Based on the calculation of marginal carbon emission reduction cost of enterprises, we calculated the demand price of enterprises for forest carbon sinks by the Rubinstein game model. To further understand the possible value, possible interval, and stability of the demand price of enterprises for forest carbon sinks, the cloud model was introduced. Based on the existing policy scenario, the demand price of enterprises for forest carbon sinks was analyzed by cloud model simulation method. Based on different emission reduction policy scenarios (carbon tax collection rate, carbon sink subsidy amount, carbon deduction ratio), the change of forest carbon sink demand price was studied, and relevant policy suggestions were put forward to better enhance the future demand potential of high emission industries in various regions for forest carbon sinks.
The highest and lowest emission reduction values of sample enterprises in three major industries in four regions are shown in Table 7.
Table 7
Comparison of the highest and lowest marginal emission reduction costs of sample enterprises in various regions and industries (yuan/ton).
| Thermal power industry | Steel industry | Chemical industry |
| Lowest | Highest | Lowest | Highest | Lowest | Highest |
Shanghai | 348.54 | 796.45 | 303.04 | 1,306.44 | 376.20 | 9,422.16 |
Beijing | 587.47 | 1,139.45 | 584.51 | 1,148.47 | 421.82 | 941.02 |
Guangdong | 856.17 | 1,049.82 | 932.29 | 1,705.71 | 1,225.45 | 1,605.65 |
Hubei | 1,099.67 | 2,404.97 | 756.93 | 1,067.86 | 403.30 | 2,379.25 |
The measured cost of enterprise emission reduction and the collected variables of policy factors are calculated by using the modified Rubinstein game model. According to the literature, based on the relevant policy data of Shanghai, ω s is the deduction ratio of 5%; ω d is the carbon tax collection rate, which is not expressly stipulated, but replaced by Shanghai's sewage charge rate of 1%; and m is the carbon sink subsidy amount of 20 yuan/ton. The results are shown in Table 8.
Table 8
Calculation of carbon sink demand price of various industries (yuan/ton).
Industry | Year | Shanghai | Beijing | Guangdong | Hubei |
Thermal power industry | Year 1 | 303.25 | 303.63 | 727.20 | 852.29 |
Year 2 | 303.31 | 520.64 | 649.11 | 889.61 |
Year 3 | 303.46 | 303.62 | 1,018.00 | 1,409.12 |
Steel industry | Year 1 | 303.30 | 410.37 | 303.40 | 359.74 |
Year 2 | 303.46 | 573.54 | 427.34 | 728.42 |
Year 3 | 303.90 | 770.49 | 1,201.21 | 996.69 |
Chemical industry | Year 1 | 303.11 | 474.79 | 476.17 | 303.22 |
Year 2 | 303.27 | 440.36 | 595.74 | 303.35 |
Year 3 | 317.25 | 303.74 | 2,492.33 | 596.52 |
According to Table 8, when industries choose industrial emission reduction instead of forest carbon sink emission reduction, the highest demand price of forest carbon sink is 2492.33 yuan/ton for the chemical industry in Guangdong Province, while the lowest price is 303.25 yuan/ton for the thermal power industry in Shanghai. The demand price of forest carbon sinks in different regions and industries varies greatly.
Overall, through regional comparison, the demand price of forest carbon sinks of enterprises in Shanghai and Beijing is obviously lower than that of enterprises in Guangdong and Hubei, which is affected by the policy requirements and equipment technology renewal in Shanghai and Beijing. These enterprises in the two places have reduced the marginal carbon emission reduction cost through equipment renovation, technological innovation and the use of environmental protection materials, thus reducing the demand price of forest carbon sinks. However, it also shows the technical level of the two places is already relatively high, and it is less likely to further improve the technology.
Compared with the demand price of forest carbon sinks predicted by the thermal power, steel, and chemical industries, the price of the chemical industry is relatively lower than the steel and thermal power industries. From this aspect, the thermal power and steel industry currently have higher cost of adopting technology to reduce emissions, and they will choose to purchase forest carbon sinks to reduce emissions when they can choose. Simultaneously, it also shows the cost of industrial emission reduction in the chemical industry is relatively low.
The data of the sample enterprises shows this method measures the forest carbon demand price of sample industries in sample areas but cannot completely reflect the true carbon demand price of the three industries in four regions after the policy’s implementation. Therefore, the cloud model is used to simulate the demand price of forest carbon sinks, and the demand price range and average value of different industries in different regions are further obtained.
Based on literature (Lei and Sun, 2021; Lin and Bao, 2021; Tang et al., 2020) and a field investigation, we found the three variables of carbon tax collection rate, carbon sink subsidy amount, and government allowed carbon offset ratio greatly influence the demand price of enterprises purchasing forest carbon sinks. Thus, these variables were introduced into the model as emission reduction policy factors.
Shanghai is an economically advanced province; its rapid economic and social development has increasingly obvious requirements and pressures on emission reduction. Subsequently, the Shanghai Municipal Party Committee and Municipal Government have emphasized emission reduction. According to the current emission reduction policy and the specificities of each pilot, Shanghai's emission reduction policy is the benchmark. The offset ratio is 5%, the carbon tax collection rate is 1% instead of the sewage charge rate, and the carbon sink subsidy amount 20 yuan/ton. So, the policy variables are adjusted to explore the influence of the change of policy factors on the demand price of enterprise forest carbon sinks.
The biggest policy factor affecting the demand price of forest carbon sinks is the government allowed offset ratio, which is taken as the key variable. When it is 5%, 10%, and 20%, the demand price of enterprises in different industries and regions will change. From Table 9, we see the increase of the proportion of carbon offset allowed by the government, the demand price for enterprises to purchase forest carbon sinks rises, and the increase in the chemical industry and Hubei Province is the most obvious, indicating it may have a positive impact on the demand price of forest carbon sinks. The area is mainly for industrial emission reduction, and few enterprises choose forest carbon sink emission reduction. However, as time goes by, the difficulty of technology emission reduction increases, resulting in an increase in emission reduction costs. Forest carbon sink emission reduction is the future development direction of the area. Therefore, the government can appropriately increase the allowable offset ratio to promote the purchase of carbon sinks by enterprises. The demand price of forest carbon sinks under different offset ratios is shown in Table 9.
Table 9
Demand price (yuan/ton) of enterprises purchasing forest carbon sinks under different offset ratios.
| Offset ratio = 5% | Offset ratio = 10% | Offset ratio = 20% |
Thermal power industry | 631.94 | 633.19 | 638.22 |
Steel industry | 556.82 | 558.02 | 562.83 |
Chemical industry | 575.82 | 580.70 | 600.24 |
Shanghai | 304.92 | 310.60 | 333.36 |
Beijing | 455.69 | 456.75 | 461.00 |
Guangdong | 876.72 | 877.69 | 881.57 |
Hubei | 715.44 | 717.51 | 725.80 |
By analogy, the change of demand price of enterprise forest carbon sinks under the carbon tax collection rate (1%, 5%, 10%) and carbon sink subsidies (20 yuan/ton, 50 yuan/ton, 80 yuan/ton) is calculated.
Table 10
Demand price of enterprises purchasing forest carbon sinks under different carbon tax rates (yuan/ton).
| Carbon tax rate = 1%. | Carbon tax rate = 5%. | Carbon tax rate = 10%. |
Thermal power industry | 631.94 | 631.92 | 631.90 |
Steel industry | 556.82 | 556.81 | 556.79 |
Chemical industry | 575.82 | 575.76 | 575.68 |
Shanghai | 304.92 | 304.85 | 304.76 |
Beijing | 455.69 | 455.68 | 455.66 |
Guangdong | 876.72 | 876.71 | 876.70 |
Hubei | 715.44 | 715.41 | 715.38 |
Table 11
Demand price of enterprises purchasing forest carbon sinks under different carbon sink subsidies (yuan/ton).
| Carbon subsidy = 20 yuan/ton. | Carbon subsidy = 50 yuan/ton. | Carbon subsidy = 80 yuan/ton. | |
Thermal power industry | 631.94 | 632.53 | 633.13 |
Steel industry | 556.82 | 557.39 | 557.97 |
Chemical industry | 575.82 | 578.14 | 580.47 |
Shanghai | 304.92 | 307.63 | 310.33 |
Beijing | 455.69 | 456.19 | 456.70 |
Guangdong | 876.72 | 877.18 | 877.64 |
Hubei | 715.44 | 716.42 | 717.41 |
With the carbon tax collection rate increase, the demand price of forest carbon sinks shows a downward trend. As such, there is no obvious change, which indicates while the carbon tax collection rate is a policy factor that affects enterprises' emission reduction, it is not a key factor. With the increase of carbon sink subsidies, the demand price of forest carbon sinks in various industries and regions is increasing. Subsequently, the demand for forest carbon sinks will increase, especially in the chemical industry and in Shanghai, but not in Beijing and Guangdong Province. This indicates a positive impact on the demand price of forest carbon sinks, which may be from the fact that the chemical industry mainly focuses on industrial emission reduction at present, but there is no much room for improvement of emission reduction technology, so the chemical industry needs the government to increase its support to promote the transformation of emission reduction methods and the development of forest carbon sinks. Shanghai has always been at the forefront of carbon sink emission reduction, and its technological innovation has reached a certain standard. The cost of further industrial emission reduction will continue to increase. If the government increases subsidies for forest carbon sink emission reduction, it will become a choice for regional enterprises.
MATLAB 8.4 software was used to simulate the price changes of forest carbon demand of enterprises under different policy scenarios. According to previous research, the change trend and degree of forest carbon sink demand price of enterprises in different industries and different regions were selected under scenarios that the government allowed offset ratio ranged from 0–20%, tax collection rate ranged from 0–20%, and carbon sink subsidy amount from 0 yuan to 150 yuan.
The sample enterprises were divided into three groups according to industries, and the government allowed carbon sink offset ratio, carbon tax collection rate, and carbon sink subsidy amounts were changed; moreover, the demand price changes of enterprises buying forest carbon sinks among industries were compared.
With other factors unchanged, we changed the range of government allowed forest carbon sequestration offset ratio and analyzed how the demand price of enterprises purchasing it changes dynamically with the increase of government allowed deduction ratio. From Fig. 3, with the government's increase of allowable carbon offset ratio, the demand price of enterprises in various industries for purchasing forest carbon sinks rises; so, the government can appropriately increase the allowable offset ratio to promote enterprises' purchase of forest carbon sinks. The growth trend of chemical enterprises is the most obvious, which shows the chemical industry has a higher cost of reducing emissions and has no advantage compared with other industries. This industry hopes to achieve indirect emission reduction by purchasing forest carbon sinks. If the government allows the deduction ratio to increase, it is the future development direction of the chemical industry to achieve emission reduction targets by purchasing forest carbon sinks.
With other factors unchanged, we changed the range of the tax collection rate from 0–20% and observed the dynamic changes of the demand price of forest carbon sinks of enterprises. Figure 4 shows the increase of the carbon tax collection rate and the demand price for enterprises in various industries to purchase forest carbon sinks shows a downward trend, but there is no obvious change. So, the carbon tax collection rate is a policy factor that affects whether enterprises will choose to purchase forest carbon sinks, but it is not a key factor; that is, the high carbon tax collection rate minimally affects the demand price of forest carbon sinks of enterprises. Therefore, the government can appropriately increase the carbon tax collection rate, give enterprises a certain pressure to reduce emissions, and promote enterprises to reduce their emissions.
With other factors unchanged, we changed the carbon sink subsidy amount and simulated the dynamic change trend of demand price for enterprises to purchase forest carbon sinks from 0 yuan to 150 yuan. Figure 5 shows with the increase of carbon sink subsidy, the demand price of enterprises in various industries for purchasing forest carbon sinks is rising; moreover, the chemical industry in the same three industries is most affected by the policy. The chemical industry needs the government's support to accelerate the development of forest carbon sinks and promote the transformation of its emission reduction methods. The government can appropriately increase the carbon sink subsidy amounts, which will promote the enthusiasm of enterprises for emission reduction and increase the purchase demand of enterprises for forest carbon sinks.
The sample enterprises were divided into four groups by region, and the government allowed carbon offset ratio, carbon tax collection rate and carbon subsidy amount were changed respectively, and the dynamic changes of forest carbon demand price of enterprises in different regions were compared.
Figure 6 shows with the increase of the proportion of carbon offset allowed by the government, the demand price of enterprises in the four regions to purchase forest carbon sinks rises; also, the growth trend of enterprises in Hubei Province is obvious. With the increase of time and technology, enterprises in Hubei Province have less advantages in industrial emission reduction and little development potential in this area. If the government increases subsidies, buying forest carbon sinks to reduce emissions will become a choice for local enterprises. Figure 7 shows with the increase of carbon tax collection rate, the demand price of forest carbon sinks of enterprises in different regions has no obvious change. Per Fig. 8, with the increase of carbon sink subsidies, the demand price of forest carbon sinks of enterprises in various regions is rising; moreover, Shanghai is the most affected by the policies among the four regions. So, the government can appropriately increase the proportion of carbon sink subsidies to promote the purchase of forest carbon sinks by enterprises.