Incidence and death among adolescents and young adults aged 10–24 years in 2019. The number of incident cases of TB among adolescents and young adults aged 10–24 years worldwide in 2019 was 1,816,495 (ASIR, 97 per 100,000 person-years), and the number of deaths was 58,340 (ASDR, 3 per 100,000 person-years) ( Table 1). The ASIR per 100,000 person-years in 2019 was highest in Mongolia [74 (95% UI, 51 to 105)], followed by China [37 (95% UI, 27 to 49)], the Republic of Korea [19 (95% UI, 13 to 27)], and Singapore [16 (95% UI, 10 to 22)], and lowest in Japan [4 (95% UI, 2 to 6)] (Table 1). The ASDR per 100,000 person-years was also highest in Mongolia [2 (95% UI, 1 to 3)] (Table 1). There were 564 deaths in China (95% UI, 477 to 667), which accounted for 1% of the global deaths. Among adolescents and young adults aged 10–24 years worldwide and in Mongolia, the ASIRs were higher among females than males. The ASDRs were lower among females than males among adolescents and young adults worldwide and in Mongolia.
Table 1
Incidence and deaths with percentage changes of tuberculosis for both sexes among adolescents and young adults aged 10–24 years between 1990 and 2019.
Location | 1990 | 2019 | Between 1990 and 2019 |
Incident cases ASIR (95% UI) | Death cases ASDR (95% UI) | Incident cases ASIR (95% UI) | Death cases ASDR (95% UI) | Percentage change, ASIR (95% UI) | Percentage change, ASDR (95% UI) |
Global | 2232379(3025089to1582383) 144(195to102) | 111785(124536to99950) 7(8to6) | 1816495(2440144to1298492) 97(131to69) | 58340(65581to51857) 3(3to2) | -1.3 (-1.4to-1.2) | -3.1 (-3.2to-2.9) |
China | 289202(380685to209122) 79(105to57) | 7806(8963to6738) 2(2to1) | 85120(111864to62646) 37(49to27) | 564(667to477) 0(0to0) | -2.3 (-2.5to-2.1) | -7.5 (-7.7to-7.3) |
Singapore | 289(409to190) 35(49to23) | 2(2to1) 0(0to0) | 120(171to81) 16(22to10) | 0(0to0) 0(0to0) | -1.9 (-2.3to-1.4) | -7.6 (-7.9to-7.3) |
Japan | 2870(4189to1809) 10(14to6) | 10(10to9) 0(0to0) | 731(1064to474) 4(6to2) | 1(1to1) 0(0to0) | -3.2 (-3.5to-2.8) | -5.2 (-5.4to-5) |
Republic of Korea | 10445(13109to8017) 79(99to60) | 325(360to291) 2(2to2) | 1661(2338to1140) 19(27to13) | 7(9to6) 0(0to0) | -4.2 (-4.6to-3.7) | -10.9 (-11.6to-10.3) |
Mongolia | 846(1094to613) 119(154to86) | 39(51to29) 5(7to4) | 547(768to378) 74(105to51) | 20(29to14) 2(3to1) | -1.5 (-1.7to-1.4) | -2.8 (-3.3to-2.4) |
ASDR, age-standardized death rate per 100,000 person-years, ASIR, age-standardized death rate per 100,000 person-years, UI, uncertainty interval.
Changes in tuberculosis incidence and death rates among adolescents and young adults aged 10–24 years between 1990 and 2019. The global change in the ASIR between 1990 and 2019 was − 1.3, and the change in the ASDR was − 3.1 (Fig. 1a, b; Table 1). There were obvious decreases in the ASIR and ASDR between 1990 and 2019 in all five Asian countries (Fig. 1; Table 1). The greatest decrease in the ASIR was in the Republic of Korea [− 4.2 (95% UI, − 4.6 to − 3.7)], followed by Japan [− 3.2 (95% UI, − 3.5 to − 2.8)], China [− 2.3 (95% UI, − 2.5 to − 2.1)], Singapore [− 1.9 (95% UI, − 2.3 to − 1.4)], and Mongolia [− 1.5 (95% UI, − 1.7 to -1.4)] (Fig. 1a, Table 1). The greatest decrease in the ASDR was in the Republic of Korea [− 10.9 (95% UI, − 11.6 to − 10.3)], followed by Singapore [− 7.6 (95% UI, − 7.9 to − 7.3)], China [− 7.5 (95% UI, − 7.7 to − 7.3)], Japan [− 5.2 (95% UI, − 5.4 to − 5)] and Mongolia [− 2.8 (95% UI, − 3.3 to − 2.4)] (Fig. 1b, Table 1). Decreases in the ASIR were higher among females than males in all countries except Singapore. Decreases in the ASDR were higher among males than females in two countries: Japan and Singapore.
The greatest decrease in the ASIR per 100,000 person-years was observed in the Republic of Korea, from 79 (95% UI, 60 to 99) in 1990 to 19 (95% UI, 13 to 27) in 2019 (Fig. 2a, Table 1). Mongolia initially showed an increasing trend in the ASIR from 1990 to 1995, but this then decreased continuously down to 74 (95% UI, 51 to 105) per 100,000 person-years in 2019. The ASIR in the Republic of Korea initially decreased from 1990 to 2000, then increased and peaked in 2005, and subsequently decreased continuously to 19 (95% UI, 13 to 27) per 100,000 person-years in 2019. In China, the ASIR showed a relatively gentle decline from 79 (95% UI, 57 to 105) to 37 (95% UI, 27 to 49) per 100,000 person-years from 1990 to 2019 (Fig. 2a, Table 1). The ASIR in Japan showed a slight downwards trend from 1990 to 2019. The greatest decrease in the ASDR per 100,000 person-years was observed in the Republic of Korea, from 2 (95% UI, 0 to 2) in 1990 to 0 (95% UI, 0 to 0) in 2019 (Fig. 2b, Table 1). The ASDR in Mongolia initially showed an increasing trend from 1990 to 1995 and then decreased to 2 (95% UI, 1 to 3) per 100,000 person-years in 2019. In China, the ASDR also showed a decline from 2 (95% UI, 1 to 2) to 0 (95% UI, 0 to 0) per 100,000 person-years from 1990 to 2019 (Fig. 2b, Table 1). In Japan and Singapore, the ASDR per 100,000 person-years declined prominently from 0 (95% UI, 0 to 0) in 1990 to 0 (95% UI, 0 to 0) in 2019 (Fig. 2b, Table 1).
Time trends in the incidence of and death due to tuberculosis among adolescents and young adults aged 10–24 years from 1990 to 2019. The greatest decreasing trend in the ASIR worldwide (APC, − 2.46) occurred from 1990 to 1994 (Fig. 3a), and the greatest decreasing trend in the ASDR worldwide (APC, − 3.71) occurred from 2000 to 2019 (Fig. 3b). For the ASIR, the greatest increasing trends were found in the Republic of Korea from 2000 to 2004 (APC, 5.65), Mongolia from 1990 to 1993 (APC, 2.88), and Singapore from 2008 to 2014 (APC, 2.64) (Fig. 3a). The greatest decreasing trends of the ASIR were found in the Republic of Korea from 1990 to 2000 (APC, − 8.16), Mongolia from 2017 to 2019 (APC, − 7.75), and Japan from 1990 to 1994 (APC, − 7.53) (Fig. 3a).
For the ASDR, the greatest increasing trends were found in Mongolia from 1990 to 1993 (APC, 12.44) (Fig. 3b). The greatest decreasing trends of the ASDR were found in the Republic of Korea from 1990 to 2002 (APC, − 14.22), 2002 to 2015 (APC, − 9.68), China from 1999 to 2006 (APC, − 9.08), and Singapore from 1998 to 2011 (APC, − 8.94) (Fig. 3b).