Development of nomogram to predict the probability of blastocyst formation on day 5: a retrospective study

doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-2721055/v1

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Development of nomogram to predict the probability of blastocyst formation on day 5: a retrospective study

https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-2721055/v1

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Background

Blastocyst transfer may cause cycle cancellation due to no blastocyst has developed. Could we develop a model for predicting probability of blastocyst formation on Day 5?

Methods

The model was developed base on 4327 fresh in vitro fertilization (IVF) or intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) cycles. Univariate logistic regression analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis were conduct to investigate the relationship between patient and cycle characteristics and the formation of usable blastocysts on Day 5. And the nomogram was developed based on variables selected from multivariate logistic regression analysis. Discrimination and calibration of the model was evaluated by area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and calibration curve.

Results

Female age, type of fertilization, fertilization rate, cleavage rate, number of Day 3 embryo extended culture to blastocyst stage, high-quality rate of Day 3 embryos extended culture to blastocyst stage, were predictors of usable blastocysts formation on Day 5. Results showed AUC in the training cohort was 0.874 (95% CI 0.862–0.887) and AUC in validation cohort was 0.886 (95% CI 0.867–0.905), indicating the good discrimination ability of the model. And the calibration curves in training and validation cohorts were both close to the ideal diagonal line, reflecting good accuracy of the model.

Conclusion

This model provides an intuitive and simple tool for predicting the probability of usable blastocysts formation on Day 5, and it may be helpful to reduce the cancellation rate of blastocyst transfer.

blastocyst

prediction model

nomogram

extended embryo culture

blastocyst formation

The improvements in embryo in vitro culture techniques, especially the advances in embryo culture media during the last decade, has led to a widespread usage of extending embryo culture to blastocyst stage (Glujovsky et al., 2022). Compared to cleavage stage embryo transfer on Day 3, blastocyst transfer on Day 5 or Day 6 has some advantages. It was well known, embryo transfer on the blastocyst stage had more opportunity to select embryo with the most implantation potential for transfer since embryo self-selection occurs following the embryonic genome activation on day 3 (Martins et al., 2017). Moreover, embryo transfer on the blastocyst stage was proposed to improve embryonic and uterine synchrony since embryo implantation commonly occurred between day 7 and 10 post-ovulation (Ojosnegros et al., 2021). Some studies have demonstrated that blastocyst transfer could achieve a higher implantation rate, clinical pregnancy, and live birth rate than cleavage stage embryos transfer with equal number of embryos (Clua et al., 2022; Li et al., 2021; Yang L, 2018). Another study reported that single blastocyst transfer could achieve comparable clinical pregnancy rate and reduce multiple pregnancy rates compared to two cleavage embryos transfers (Zander-Fox et al., 2011).

However, blastocyst transfer may cause cycle cancellation due to no blastocyst formation (Neuhausser et al., 2020). In recent years, various methods have been used to predict the formation of blastocysts, such as time-lapse monitoring, gene expression profiling, and proteomics (Braga et al., 2016; Liao et al., 2021; Wong et al., 2010); however, these methods are time-consuming, laborious, and expensive, and thus not suitable for every patient.

Nomograms, as statistical tools, are widely used to predict the diagnosis, occurrence, and development (Chen et al., 2021; Liu et al., 2022; Mu et al., 2020). This could calculate the probability of a specific outcome for each patient. In recent years, nomogram has been applied in the field of reproductive medicine. A previous study has developed a nomogram for predicting the cancellation of blastocyst transfer based on training cohort of 562 cycles; however, the calibration curve of validation cohort showed poor performance (P < 0.01) (Dessolle et al., 2009). A recent study established three nomograms for predicting blastocyst formation rates according to different types of female infertility; however, these models are only suitable for IVF cycles (Jin et al., 2021).

In the present study, we sought to develop a nomogram for predicting the probability of usable blastocysts formation on day 5 based on a large retrospective dataset, and hoped that it could reduce the cancellation rate of blastocyst transfer.

Patients

A total of 4327 fresh IVF or ICSI cycles between August 2019 and December 2021 were analyzed in this retrospective study. All the cycles were performed at The Reproductive Medicine Center of The First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang, China. The inclusion criteria were as follows: (1) patients undergoing IVF or ICSI in fresh cycles; (2) at least one zygote extended culture to day 5. The exclusion criteria were as follows: (1) cycles with donor sperm, surgically retrieved sperm, or retrograde ejaculation; (2) sperm concentration ≤ 1 × 10⁶/mL; (3) cycles during half ICSI or oocyte in vitro maturation (IVM) treatment.

The study was approved by the Ethics Committee of The First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University (Program NO: KY2022-R205) and was carried out in compliance with the Declaration of Helsinki. As a retrospective study, the Ethics Committee of the First Afliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University approved the exemption of informed consent, and the datasets were anonymized before their use.

Assisted Reproductive Technology procedures

In our center, antagonist protocol, long agonist protocol, and other protocols of controlled ovarian hyperstimulation (COH) were applied as described previously (Jin et al., 2015; Yu et al., 2018). Human chorionic gonadotropin (HCG; Livzon, China) was used to trigger ovulation when at least one follicle reached 18 mm in diameter. After 36 h, oocytes were retrieved under transvaginal ultrasound and incubated in a humidified incubator for 2–4 h with 6% CO₂ and 5% O₂ at 37°C.

Sperm samples were collected by the method of masturbation on the day of oocyte retrieval. After sperm samples liquefaction, sperm was evaluated for volume, concentration, and motility based on the fifth edition of the World Health Organization laboratory manual (WHO., 2010). Then, the samples were washed to remove the seminal fluid by density gradient centrifugation (DGC). For IVF cycles, sperm samples were washed twice by fertilization medium (G-IVF PLUS, Vitrolife) and then allowed to swim up before IVF. For ICSI cycles, sperm samples were washed once by fertilization medium (G-IVF PLUS, Vitrolife) before ICSI. In addition, the sperm DNA fragmentation (SDF) was assessed by sperm chromatin dispersion assay 1–2 months prior to IVF or ICSI cycles, as described by Zhang et al. (Zhang et al., 2022).

IVF or ICSI procedures were conducted depending on the clinical indications. For IVF cycle, micro-drop insemination technique was utilized, and oocytes were cultured at a concentration of 400,000 progressive motile sperm cells/ml. For ICSI cycle, cumulus cells were denuded from oocytes by hyaluronidase treatment, and then sperm was injected in oocytes. Fertilization was assessed 16–18 h after insemination, and only the zygotes consisting of two pronuclei and two polar bodies were considered normal fertilization. On Day 3, the cleavage stage embryos were graded based on their morphology. Embryos with 7–9 blastomeres and < 20% anucleate fragments were defined as high-quality embryos in our center. According to the clinical requirements, usually the two top-quality embryos were transferred or vitrified. The surplus embryos were transferred from the cleavage embryo culture medium (G1-Plus, Vitrolife) into the blastocyst culture medium (G2-Plus, Vitrolife). On day 5 or 6, the morphology of blastocysts was evaluated based on the criteria of Gardner and Schoolcraft (Alpha Scientists in Reproductive and Embryology, 2011). The blastocysts with Gardner score ≥ 2BC were defined as usable blastocysts and vitrified.

Development and evaluation of the nomogram model

The endpoint of the present study was the formation of usable blastocysts on Day 5. The nomogram model was constructed as follows. First, univariate logistic regression analysis was performed to screen the predictive factors. Variables including female age, infertility duration, body mass index (BMI), type of fertilization, COH protocols, primary or secondary infertility, presence or absence of polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS), sperm concentration, sperm motility, oocytes retrieved, fertilization rate, cleavage rate, number of Day 3 embryos extended culture to blastocyst stage, high-quality rate of Day 3 embryos extended culture to blastocyst stage, and SDF were analyzed in univariate logistic regression analysis. Second, significant variables in univariate logistic regression analysis (P < 0.05) were further analyzed in multivariate logistic regression analysis. A backward stepwise variable selection was conducted to determine the variables that could be removed to improve the overall quality of the model (as measured by Akaike’s information criterion). Finally, the nomogram was developed based on variables selected from multivariate logistic regression analysis.

The AUC of ROC curve and calibration curve were used to assessment the discrimination and calibration, respectively. The value of AUC ranged from 0–1, and the value of AUC 0.5–0.7, 0.7–0.8, or 0.8–0.9 was considered as poor, fair, or good performance, respectively (Dessolle et al., 2009).

Statistical analysis

Data were performed using SPSS software (Statistical Package for the Social Sciences, version 16.0, SPSS Inc., IL, USA) and R software (version 4.1.2; http://www.r-project.org/). For continuous variables, the normal distribution was expressed as mean ± standard deviation and analyzed using t-test, while the skewed distribution was presented as median (P25, P75) and analyzed by Mann-Whitney U test. Categorical variables were reported as frequencies (percentages) and analyzed using chi-square test. All statistical tests were two-sided, and P-value < 0.05 was considered significant. In the present study, imputation for missing variables was considered if missing values were < 20%. We used a series mean to replace the missing values for infertility duration, BMI and SDF.

General characteristics

A total of 4327 cycles were randomly separated into training (3031) and validation cohorts (1296) at the ratio of 7:3. The patient and cycle characteristics of the two cohorts are summarized in Table 1. No significant differences were observed between the two cohorts, except that the type of fertilization of the validation cohort was preferred for ICSI.

Table 1 Patients and cycles characteristics in the training and validation cohorts

	Training cohort	Validation cohort	P-value
Number of cycles	3031	1296
Female age (years)	32.0 (29.0–35.7)	31.9 (28.8–35.9)	0.755
Male age (years)	33.8 (30.6–37.6)	33.7 (30.3–37.9)	0.805
Duration of infertility (years)	3.0 (2.0–4.0)	3.0 (2.0–4.0)	0.373
Female BMI (kg/m²)	22.0 (20.0–24.0)	22.2 (19.9–24.0)	0.296
Primary or secondary infertility Primary (%) Secondary (%)	34.9 65.1	34.0 66.0	0.564
Type of fertilization ICSI (%) IVF (%)	21.3 78.7	24.1 75.9	0.043
COH protocols Antagonist (%) Long agonist (%) Other (%)	56.5 24.2 19.3	55.2 24.5 20.2	0.699
Sperm concentration (milllion/mL)	46.0 (35.0–64.0)	46.0 (33.3–63.8)	0.362
Sperm motility (%)	47.0 (41.0–53.0)	47.0 (40.0–53.0)	0.746
SDF SDF ≤ 30 (%) SDF > 30 (%)	92.9 7.1	91.8 8.2	0.198
PCOS PCOS (%) No-PCOS (%)	14.3 85.7	14.0 86.0	0.804
Gonadotrophin duration (days)	10.0 (9.0–11.0)	10.0 (9.0,11.0)	0.916
Gonadotrophin dosage (IU)	1725 (1350–2250)	1726 (1375–2200)	0.774
Oocytes retrieved	13.0 (8.0–18.0)	13.0 (9.0–18.0)	0.295
Fertilization rate (%)	69.4 (56.3–82.1)	70.0 (57.1–81.8)	0.767
Cleavage rate (%)	100 (100–100)	100 (100–100)	0.755
Number of day3 embryos extended culture to blastocyst stage	5 (3.0–9.0)	5 (3.0–9.0)	0.776
High quality rate of day3 embryos extended culture to blastocyst	25.0 (0–50)	25.0 (0–50)	0.600
Usable blastulation rate on day 5	30.0 (0–30)	30.0 (0–30)	0.563
Usable blastulation rate	41.7(8.3–63.6)	40.0(1.8–66.7)	0.945

Screening for predictive factors

Univariate logistic regression analysis demonstrated that female age, infertility duration, type of fertilization, COH protocols, presence or absence of PCOS, oocytes retrieved, fertilization rate, cleavage rate, number of Day 3 embryos extended culture to blastocyst stage, and high-quality rate of Day 3 embryos extended culture to blastocyst stage are associated with the formation of usable blastocysts on Day 5 (P < 0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that the formation of usable blastocysts on Day 5 was associated with female age [P < 0.01, odds ratio (OR) 0.970, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.950–0.991), type of fertilization (ICSI vs. IVF) (P < 0.01, OR 0.612, 95% CI: 0.474–0.789), cleavage rate (P < 0.01, OR 1.040, 95% CI: 1.019–1.062), number of Day 3 embryos extended culture to the blastocyst stage (P < 0.01, OR 1.465, 95% CI: 1.404–1.530), and high-quality rate of Day 3 embryos extended culture to the blastocyst stage (P < 0.01, OR 1.028, 95% CI: 1.024–1.032). Although fertilization rate (P = 0.06, OR 1.005, 95% CI: 1.000–1.011) was not statistically related to stable blastocyst formation on Day 5, its inclusion could improve the overall quality of the model.

The equation calculating the probability of usable blastocysts formation on Day 5 was: P = 1 / [1 + exp(-X)] where X = -4.812365 − 0.030108 × X1 − 0.491476 × X2 + 0.005328 × X3 + 0.039225 × X4 + 0.381565 × X5 + 0.027819 × X6; Where X1 was female age, X2 was the type of fertilization (0 if IVF and 1 if ICSI), X3 was fertilization rate, X4 was cleavage rate, X5 was number of Day 3 embryos extended culture to blastocyst stage, and X6 was high-quality rate of Day 3 embryos extended culture to blastocyst stage.

Nomogram development and evaluation

The nomogram developed based on this equation is shown in Fig. 1. For each cycle, high total points indicated a higher probability of blastocyst formation on Day 5. Additionally, The Hosmer − Lemeshow test suggested that the model was a good fit (P = 0.368).

Results showed that the AUC of ROC in the training cohort was 0.874 (95% CI: 0.862–0.887) (Fig. 2) and that in the validation cohort was 0.886 (95% CI: 0.867–0.905) (Fig. 3), indicating a good discrimination ability of the model. The calibration curves in both cohorts (Figs. 4 and 5) was close to the ideal diagonal line, reflecting the good accuracy of the model.

In the present study, we developed a model for predicting the individual probability of usable blastocyst formation on Day 5 based on training cohorts and then the model was validated by validation cohort. The model indicated that female age, type of fertilization, fertilization rate, cleavage rate, number of Day 3 embryos extended culture to blastocyst stage, and high-quality rate of Day 3 embryos extended culture to blastocyst stage were predictors of usable blastocysts formation on Day 5.

Two previously study have developed models to predict blastocyst formation on Day 5(Dessolle et al., 2009; Jin et al., 2021), however our prediction model has some advantages compared to the two studies. First, the discrimination of our predict model was better than these previously predicted models. In the present the AUC value of training cohort and validation cohorts were 0.874 (95% CI: 0.862–0.886) and 0.886 (95% CI: 0.867–0.905) respectively, showing good discrimination ability of the model; while the AUC values of training cohorts of these previously predicted models were fair performance. Second, the accuracy of our model was better than the model developed by Dessolle L et al., as the calibration curves of training cohort and validation were close to the ideal diagonal line in the present study while the calibration curve of validation cohort was poor performance (P < 0.01) in Dessolle L et al. 's study. Third, our prediction model could be used for predicting blastocyst formation in both IVF and ICSI cycles while models of Jin H et al. 's study are only suitable for IVF cycles.

Previous studies have shown that female age is strongly associated with the clinical outcomes of reproductive medicine (van Loendersloot et al., 2010; von Wolff et al., 2019). Some studies have shown that increased female age has a negative effect on blastocyst formation (Dessolle et al., 2009; Jin et al., 2021; La Marca et al., 2022; Thomas et al., 2010). In our nomogram model, a lower female age corresponding to higher points indicated a higher probability of blastocyst formation on Day 5; these results were consistent with the published data. It was well known, abnormalities in the oocyte ooplasm, including organelle dysfunction, altered metabolism, and aberrant gene regulation, would be accumulative with increased female age and progressively undermined oocyte quality (Bebbere et al., 2022). Oocytes derived from older woman would reduce the ability to repair sperm DNA fragmentation which was negatively correlated with blastocyst formation(Sedó et al., 2017; Setti et al., 2021). Moreover, mitochondrial function at morula stage was decreased with maternal ageing, and thus impar morula-to-blastocyst transition(Hashimoto and Morimoto, 2022). A recent study has indicated that advanced maternal age significantly effect on pronuclear, chromatin dynamics, regulation of cell polarity and blastocyst formation rate (Ezoe et al., 2023).

Type of fertilization was also an independent predictor in our model. In the present study, multivariate regression analysis showed that type of fertilization was associated with the formation of usable blastocysts on Day 5 (ICSI vs. IVF) (P < 0.01, OR 0.612, 95% CI: 0.474–0.789). This result was in accordance with some earlier published studies (Dessolle et al., 2009; Thomas et al., 2010; Yin et al., 2014). Thomas et al. indicated that ICSI has a negative effect on blastocyst formation rate (Thomas et al., 2010). Yin et al. found that either the blastocyst formation rate where blastocyst derived from good morphology embryos or the total blastocyst formation rate in IVF cycles was significantly higher compared to ICSI cycles (Yin et al., 2014). This phenomenon could be explained that ICSI technology can bypass the selective biological barrier of zona pellucida and may bring abnormal sperm into the oocyte, subsequently affecting embryonic development and blastocyst formation. One study has determined that the ICSI zygotes have many more vacuoles than IVF zygotes, and the presence of vacuoles was related to a lower blastocyst formation rate (Ebner et al., 2005).

In the present study, number of Day 3 embryos extended culture to blastocyst stage was significant associated with usable blastocyst formation on Day 5 and was included in the model. Surprisingly, the number of oocytes retrieved was not incorporated into the model. A systematic review and meta-analysis has indicated that the number of oocytes retrieved was positively correlated with the number of high-quality embryo (Vermey et al., 2019). Moreover, two studies that construct prediction models for predicting blastocyst formation have demonstrated that the number of oocytes retrieved was an important predictor of blastocyst formation (Dessolle et al., 2009; Jin et al., 2021). The causation of the number of Day 3 embryos extended culture to blastocyst stage rather than the number of oocytes retrieved entered in the model, may be attributed to the fact that not all Day 3 embryos cohort were cultured to blastocyst stage and usually the best one or two embryos were transferred or vitrified in the present study.

The fertilization rate, cleavage rate, high-quality rate of Day 3 embryos extended culture to blastocyst stage were residual predictors of usable blastocyst formation on Day 5. Higher fertilization rate or cleavage rate usually produce more zygotes and cleaved embryos in fresh cycles, earlier study has demonstrated that the number of zygotes and cleaved embryos have positive effect on clinical outcomes(Hariton et al., 2017). It was shown that high-quality Day 3 embryos have more potential to develop into blastocysts(Yin et al., 2014), in the present study high-quality rate of Day 3 embryos extended culture to blastocyst stage corresponded to a high point; these results were similar to the previously predicted models(Dessolle et al., 2009; Jin et al., 2021).

In the present study, we developed a prediction model with good discrimination and accuracy. Nevertheless, the study has two limitations. First, the present study was a retrospective study, and hence the probability of potential bias could not be excluded. Second, the data analyzed in the present study was from a single center; thus, a multicenter study should be conducted to test the applicability of the model future.

In conclusion, we developed a model to predict the probability of usable blastocysts formation on Day 5. Variables, including female age, type of fertilization, fertilization rate, cleavage rate, number of Day 3 embryos extended culture to blastocyst stage, and high-quality rate of Day 3 embryos extended culture to blastocyst stage were entered into this model. This prediction model performed satisfactorily, as confirmed by validation data. Thus, it provides an intuitive and simple tool for predicting the probability of usable blastocyst formation on Day 5, which might be helpful in decreasing the cancellation rate of blastocyst transfer.

IVF In Vitro Fertilization

ICSI Intracytoplasmic Sperm Injection )，

AUC Area Under the Curve

ROC Receiver Operating Characteristic

IVM In Vitro Maturation

COH Controlled Ovarian Hyperstimulation

DGC Density Gradient Centrifugation

HCG Human Chorionic Gonadotropin

SDF Sperm DNA Fragmentation

BMI Body Mass Index

PCOS Polycystic Ovary Syndrome

OR Odds Ratio

CI Confidence Interval

Ethics approval and consent to participate

This study followed the Declaration of Helsinki and was performed in accordance with the relevant local guidelines and regulations. The present study was approved by the Ethics Committee of The First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University (Program NO: KY2022-R205), Wenzhou, Zhejiang, China. As a retrospective study, the Ethics Committee of the First Afliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University approved the exemption of informed consent, and the datasets were anonymized before their use.

Consent for publication

Not applicable.

Availability of data and materials

The datasets used and analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing interests.

Funding

Not applicable.

Authors’ contributions

Z. conceived of study and drafted the manuscript. D.Y. designed the study. W.J. and J.S. contributed to data acquisition. H.Z. and Z.X. interpreted the data. All authors critically and substantially revised the manuscript and approved the submitted version.

Acknowledgements

Not applicable.

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No competing interests reported.

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Development of nomogram to predict the probability of blastocyst formation on day 5: a retrospective study

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Abstract

Figures

Introduction

Materials and Methods

Patients

Assisted Reproductive Technology procedures

Development and evaluation of the nomogram model

Statistical analysis

Results

General characteristics

Screening for predictive factors

Nomogram development and evaluation

Discussion

Abbreviations

Declarations

References

Additional Declarations

Status:

Version 1