Coronaviruses are group of viruses that infect mammals and birds. In humans these viruses produce disease through the respiratory tract and ranges from mild to lethal. In mild cases, there is common cold while in lethal cases there is SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome), MERS (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome) and Covid-19 (Coronavirus Disease 2019). During the 2002–2003 outbreaks, SARS infection was reported in 29 countries in North America, South America, Europe and Asia. Overall 8098 infected individuals were identified, with 774 SARS-related fatalities . MERS is a respiratory disease caused by a newly familiar coronavirus, MERS-CoV. It was first reported in 2012 in Saudi Arabia and is thus far linked to countries in or near the Arabian Peninsula. Laboratory-confirmed MERS has now been recognized in Bahrain, Iran, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Yemen. A large MERS outbreak occurred in the Republic of South Korea associated to a traveller from the Arabian Peninsula in 2015. Travel-accompanying cases have been identified in Algeria, Austria, China, Egypt, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Malaysia, Netherlands, Philippines, Republic of Korea, Thailand, Tunisia, Turkey, United Kingdom (UK), and United States (US). MERS-CoV infected 2494 individuals and caused 858 deaths worldwide to date . Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is well-defined as infection triggered by a novel coronavirus now called severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2; formerly called 2019-nCoV), which was first recognized amongst an outbreak of respiratory illness cases in Wuhan City, the capital of Hubei Province, China. The numbers of the accumulative confirmed infected patients were predicted very accurately in different regions of China . The emergence of COVID-19 coincided with the largest annual human migration in the world, i.e., the Spring Festival travel season, which resulted in a rapid national and global spread of the virus . It was primarily informed to the WHO on December 31, 2019. On January 30, 2020, the WHO acknowledged the COVID-19 outbreak a global health emergency. On March 11, 2020, the WHO declared COVID-19 a global pandemic. Illness caused by SARS-CoV-2 was recently termed COVID-19 by the WHO, the new acronym derived from “coronavirus disease 2019”.
Covid-19 outbreak is a global disaster. There is a prodigious loss of lives, furthermore it destroy the economy of the countries worldwide as many of them have gone to the lockdown. If this pandemic has to be handled, then there is requirement of unification of the whole world to fight this disease by taking safety measures. Otherwise there is probability of great loss of human lives in this decade due to this infection as the death rate is increasing rapidly. Preparedness plans and mitigation interventions should be readied for quick deployment globally .
Globally, the government, doctors, paramedics, nurses, medical technicians and the community is affianced to fight with Covid-19. If we will be strong-minded and keep on struggling with this infection then there is the opportunity to triumph this conflict. In this study, we figure out the prediction of total cases of Covid-19 with each new day in those countries which have large number of cases as compared to others including US, Spain, Germany, France, Italy and China along with their death record. Ultimately, we attempt to give awareness how hazardous this pandemic could be with each new growing day and what will be the life cycle of the pandemic in terms of number of confirmed patients as well as number of reported death cases.
In this scenario, the data is available from Humanitarian Data Exchange (HDE) of Covid-19 in each country (About 186 countries) of the world. There is the record of number of CP cases and RD cases around the world starting from January 22, 2020. Data is available for all the countries which are under the impact of this epidemic. In this study analysis for modelling is applied on US, Italy, Spain and Pakistan to evaluate and simulate for the CP and RD cases. We choose here the data up to April 28, 2020, but data is routinely updated from the HDE or other sources available online. A three parametric nonlinear logistic model is applied on the data of four most interesting countries to assess how the disease has its dynamic spread in these countries and how it will influence in near future.