Characteristics of the subjects included
To investigate characteristics of coagulation status in women with a history of missed abortion, a total of 11182 patients aged 22 to 48 years were enrolled from outpatients and inpatients of Peking University Third Hospital, from January 2013 to June 2021. Their average age was 33.20±7.43 years. While, 5298 controls aged 20 to 45 years were also recruited in our study, and the mean age was 33.00±4.38 years. Serum indices of glucose, liver and kidney function were normal in all participants described in Table 1. There was no significant difference between patients and controls (P>0.05).
Coagulation function screening tests
Our results showed that there were no differences in aPTT, PT, TT and fibrinogen between patients with a history of missed abortion and the healthy controls. aPTT were 30.76±2.86 s and 30.99±3.63 s, PT were 10.92±0.64 s and 10.75±0.36 s, TT were 14.04±0.70 s and14.24±1.49 s, fibrinogen were 2.99±0.39 g/L and 3.08±0.64 g/L in the patients and healthy women (P>0.05), respectively (Figure 2A and 2B). Obviously, D-Dimer showed an increasing trend in patients with a history of missed abortion, and the difference was statistically significant (P=0.021) (Figure 2C).
Anticoagulation function tests
The results of AT-III, fPS and PC in patients with a history of missed abortion were compared with controls, which are nature crucial physiological anticoagulants in vivo. We found that there were no significant differences of fPS between the two groups. In the patients and controls, the acitivity of fPS was 75.65±23.45% in patients with missed abortion and 74.50±24.29% in healthy pregnant women. AT-III was 99.32±13.08% in the patients, and it was 109.15±6.18% in the controls. Obviously, AT-III in the patient group was lower than that in the control group, while PC was higher in the group of patients (111.71±21.19%), and the difference was significant (P<0.05) (Figure 3A).
Lupus anticoagulant measurements in patients with a history of missed abortion
In this study, screening for lupus anticoagulant (LAC) was performed using the dilute Russell’sviper venom time (dRVVT), LA1 screening regent/LA2 confirmation regent(dRVVT-R), which normal ratio being 0.92-1.11, > 1.11 was considered as positive. Among 11182 patients with a history of missed abortion, 1466 were positive for dRVVT tests. However, only one case in the control group was positive for dRVVT, and the difference was statistically significant (P<0.001).
Changes in platelet aggregation and platelet counts
In this study, we found that the PAgT values showed an increasing trend in patients with a history of missed abortion and there were significant differences compared with healthy women. As shown in Figure 3B, in the patients and controls, the PAgT values were 87.70±12.48% and 78.31±8.66%, respectively (P=0.001). In addition, the results showed that the level of platelet counts in the patients with a history of missed abortion was significantly higher than that in the control group, platelet counts were (240±59) ×109/L and (212±48)×109/L, respectively (P=0.009) (Figure 3C).
The proportion outside the normal reference intervals of various coagulation related parameters
We calculated the reference intervals of various coagulation function and platelet related parameters for healthy reproductive-age women. The 2.5th-97.5th percentiles of aPTT, PT, TT, fibrinogen, D-Dimer, AT-III, PC, fPS, dRVVT, PAgT and platelet count were listed in Table 2. According to the reference intervals we established for healthy reproductive-age women, up to 47.4% patients with a history of missed abortion had PAgT above the normal reference range. While dRVVT-R, platelet count, D-Dimer exceeded their reference intervals by 13.1%, 10.7% and 8.2%, respectively (Figure 4).
Multivariate logistic regression of variables predicting missed abortion
In multivariate logistic regression analysis, PAgT, D-Dimer, dRVVT, AT-III and PC were identified as independent predictors for missed abortion (Table 3). Among all the indicators, PAgT showed the highest odds ratio, indicating a strong association between high PAgT and missed abortion.
A model based on coagulation function tests for predicting missed abortion using machine learning methods
In this model, aPTT, PT, TT, fibrinogen, D-Dimer, AT-III, PC, fPS, dRVVT, PAgT and platelet count were selected as characteristic variables. To solve the imbalance problem, SMOTE was utilized to oversample healthy controls. As a result, 346 controls and 352 positives were used to train our model. After data normalization and principal component analysis, a simple linear SVM classifier was trained to discriminate missed abortion from healthy controls. To evaluate the overall performance of this model area under curve (AUC) were calculated for both training set and test set (Figure 5). As a result, all healthy controls (153 samples) and 97% abortions (141 in 147 samples) were correctly recognized in test set, achieving a very high AUC score (0.999876).