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Research Article
Yi Wang
North China Electric Power University School of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering
Corresponding Author
ORCiD: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7815-5254
License:
This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License. Read Full License
In hydrological research, flood events can be analyzed by flood hydrograph coincidence. Existing flood hydrograph coincidence research mostly focuses on the analysis of the coincidence risk probability of the annual maximum flood event using the 15-day maximum annual flood volume; the actual duration of the flood hydrograph is neglected. The duration of the flood hydrograph is a key variable in (1) determining whether flood hydrograph coincidence occurs, and (2) accurately calculating the flood hydrograph coincidence risk probability. This paper creatively proposes a novel method to analyze the flood hydrograph coincidence risk probability by establishing a five-dimensional joint distribution of flood volumes, durations and interval time for two hydrologic stations. More specifically, using the annual maximum flood of the upper Yangtze River and input from Dongting Lake as an example, the Pearson Type III and the mixed von Mises distributions were used to establish the marginal distribution of flood volumes, flood duration and interval time. Subsequently, the five-dimensional joint distribution based on vine copula was established to analyze the flood hydrograph coincidence risk probability. The results were verified by comparison with a historical flood sequence. The flood hydrograph coincidence volume-risk probability curve was also obtained, providing theoretical support for flood control safety and risk management in the middle and lower Yangtze River. This study also demonstrates the significant beneficial role of regulation by the Three Gorges Water Conservancy Project in mitigating flood risk of the Yangtze River.
Keywords
Flood hydrograph coincidence, Hydrological extremes, Joint distribution, Vine copula, Risk probability, Yangtze River Basin
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This preprint is under consideration at Natural Hazards. A preprint is a preliminary version of a manuscript that has not completed peer review at a journal. Research Square does not conduct peer review prior to posting preprints. The posting of a preprint on this server should not be interpreted as an endorsement of its validity or suitability for dissemination as established information or for guiding clinical practice.
Learn more about In Review
Research Article
Yi Wang
North China Electric Power University School of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering
Corresponding Author
ORCiD: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7815-5254
Badges
Prescreen
This manuscript passed our Prescreen assessment
Complete author information
Appropriate declaration statements
Potential risks to human health
Prescreen
Peer Review Timeline
CURRENT STATUS: Under Review
Version 1
Posted 05 Mar, 2021
No community comments so far
Review #? received
Received 01 Mar, 2021
Editor assigned
On 28 Feb, 2021
Reviewers invited
Invitations sent on 28 Feb, 2021
First submitted
On 25 Feb, 2021
License:
This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License. Read Full License
In hydrological research, flood events can be analyzed by flood hydrograph coincidence. Existing flood hydrograph coincidence research mostly focuses on the analysis of the coincidence risk probability of the annual maximum flood event using the 15-day maximum annual flood volume; the actual duration of the flood hydrograph is neglected. The duration of the flood hydrograph is a key variable in (1) determining whether flood hydrograph coincidence occurs, and (2) accurately calculating the flood hydrograph coincidence risk probability. This paper creatively proposes a novel method to analyze the flood hydrograph coincidence risk probability by establishing a five-dimensional joint distribution of flood volumes, durations and interval time for two hydrologic stations. More specifically, using the annual maximum flood of the upper Yangtze River and input from Dongting Lake as an example, the Pearson Type III and the mixed von Mises distributions were used to establish the marginal distribution of flood volumes, flood duration and interval time. Subsequently, the five-dimensional joint distribution based on vine copula was established to analyze the flood hydrograph coincidence risk probability. The results were verified by comparison with a historical flood sequence. The flood hydrograph coincidence volume-risk probability curve was also obtained, providing theoretical support for flood control safety and risk management in the middle and lower Yangtze River. This study also demonstrates the significant beneficial role of regulation by the Three Gorges Water Conservancy Project in mitigating flood risk of the Yangtze River.
Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3
Figure 4
Figure 5
Figure 6
Figure 7
Figure 8
Figure 9
Figure 10
Figure 11
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