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Research Article
Jun Li
School of International Relations, Sun Yat-sen University, China; Faculty of Engineering, School of Management, Curtin University of Technology, Perth, Australia
Corresponding Author
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As global public health is under threat by the 2019-nCoV, an urgent question to ask is what the optimal strategy of epidemic prevention and control (P&C) measures would be, especially in terms of the timing of enforcing aggressive policy response so as to maximise health efficacy and to contain pandemic spread. Here, we developed a logistic probability function configured SEIR model to analyse the COVID-19 outbreak and estimate its transmission pattern under different “anticipate- or delay-to-activate” policy response scenarios in containing the pandemic. We wound that the potential positive effects of stringent P&C measures would be cancelled out in case of significantly delayed action, whereas a partially procastinatory wait-and-see control policy may still be able to contribute to containing the degree of epidemic spread although its effectiveness may be significantly compromised compared to a scenario of early intervention coupled with stringent P&C measures. A laissez faire policy adopted by the government and health authority to tackling the uncertainly of COVID19-type pandemic development during the early stage of the outbreak turns out to be a very bad strategy from optimal control perspective, as significant damages would be produced in that case.
Authors Jun Li and Yimin Zhou contributed equally to this work.
Keywords
COVID-19 pandemic, Prevention and Control, Timing, Optimal control, Irreversible damage
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A new preprint design is coming!
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This is a preprint, a preliminary version of a manuscript that has not completed peer review at a journal. Research Square does not conduct peer review prior to posting preprints. The posting of a preprint on this server should not be interpreted as an endorsement of its validity or suitability for dissemination as established information or for guiding clinical practice.
Research Article
Jun Li
School of International Relations, Sun Yat-sen University, China; Faculty of Engineering, School of Management, Curtin University of Technology, Perth, Australia
Corresponding Author
Badges
Prescreen
This manuscript passed our Prescreen assessment
Complete author information
Appropriate declaration statements
Potential risks to human health
Prescreen
History
CURRENT STATUS: Posted
Version 1
Posted 09 May, 2020
No community comments so far
Metrics
Comments: 0
PDF Downloads: ...
HTML Views: ...
Subject Areas
Epidemiology
License:
This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License. Read Full License
As global public health is under threat by the 2019-nCoV, an urgent question to ask is what the optimal strategy of epidemic prevention and control (P&C) measures would be, especially in terms of the timing of enforcing aggressive policy response so as to maximise health efficacy and to contain pandemic spread. Here, we developed a logistic probability function configured SEIR model to analyse the COVID-19 outbreak and estimate its transmission pattern under different “anticipate- or delay-to-activate” policy response scenarios in containing the pandemic. We wound that the potential positive effects of stringent P&C measures would be cancelled out in case of significantly delayed action, whereas a partially procastinatory wait-and-see control policy may still be able to contribute to containing the degree of epidemic spread although its effectiveness may be significantly compromised compared to a scenario of early intervention coupled with stringent P&C measures. A laissez faire policy adopted by the government and health authority to tackling the uncertainly of COVID19-type pandemic development during the early stage of the outbreak turns out to be a very bad strategy from optimal control perspective, as significant damages would be produced in that case.
Authors Jun Li and Yimin Zhou contributed equally to this work.
Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3
Figure 4
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