2.1. Study population
The current prospective study, which included a Chinese cohort from the suburb of Changping, Beijing, was conducted between March 2014 and July 2021, during a mean follow-up of 5.97±1.16 years. The research protocol and consent procedures were approved by the Ethics Committee of the Peking Union Medical College Hospital. All the participants provided written informed consent. Of a total of 599 participants aged between 18 and 81 years recruited into the study in 2014, 198 (148, 25, 1, and 24 lacked baseline LTL results, albuminuria results, serum creatinine results, and had a baseline urine albumin-creatinine ratio [ACR] ≥300 mg/g Cr or eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m2, respectively) were excluded. Finally, 401 participants were included in this study.
Demographic data collected at baseline included age; sex; history of use of anti-glycemic, antihypertensive, and anti-lipid drugs; and history of diabetes, hypertension, and hyperlipidemia. Anthropometric data, including height, weight, waist circumference (WC), hip circumference, systolic blood pressure (SBP), and diastolic blood pressure (DBP), were collected. The formula for calculating the body mass index (BMI) was height (in meter)/weight (in kilogram) squared. Overweight and obesity were defined as 24 kg/m2 ≤BMI <28 kg/m2 and BMI ≥ 28 kg/m2, respectively.
Urine and blood samples were collected from participants during follow-up to assess albuminuria status and renal function progression. According to the World Health Organization criteria, normal glucose tolerance (NGT) was identified using the 75-g oral glucose tolerance test: fasting plasma glucose (FPG) <6.1 mmol/L and 2-hour post-load plasma glucose (2h-PG) <7.8 mmol/L. Pre-diabetes was indicated by impaired fasting glucose measured as 6.1 mmol/L ≤ FPG <7.0 mmol/L and 2h-PG <7.8 mmol/L, impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) measured as 7.8 ≤2h-PG <11.1 mmol/L and FPG <6.1 mmol/L, or both impaired fasting glucose and IGT. Diabetes was indicated by FPG ≥7.0 mmol/L or 2h-PG ≥11.1 mmol/L.
2.2. Calculations of eGFR and ACR
eGFR was calculated using the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration equation, based on the measurement of serum creatinine and anthropometric data, such as age and sex. ACR was calculated based on urine microalbumin and urine creatinine levels. The equations are as follows:
eGFR=142 × min (standardized Scr/K,1) α × max (standardized Scr/K,1)-1.200 × 0.9938Age × 1.012 [if female] mL/min/1.73 m2,
where K=0.7 (female) or 0.9 (male), α= –0.241 (female) or –0.302 (male), and ACR=urinary albumin/urinary creatinine (mg/g Cr).
2.3. Measurement of LTL
LTL assays were performed using the blood samples collected at baseline. The details of the LTL measurements are described in our previous publication[19]. LTL was determined, as the ratio of the telomere repeat copy number to the single copy number (T/S ratio), using a monochrome multiplex quantitative polymerase chain reaction protocol.
2.4. Assessment of oxidative stress and inflammatory markers
Oxidative stress and inflammatory marker levels were measured using the blood samples collected at baseline. TNF-α concentrations was determined using an ELISA kit (Cloud-Clone Corp, Houston, USA) by the Beijing Institute of Biotechnology.
2.5. Definition of hypertension
Hypertension was defined either as having been diagnosed with hypertension, taking antihypertensive drugs, or SBP ≥140 mmHg and DBP ≥90 mmHg at rest.
2.6. Definition of the outcomes
Kidney dysfunction was defined according to the following: (1) Decline in eGFR ≤60 mL/min/1.73 m2 or a rapid decline in eGFR. A total of 261 participants with at least two eGFR measurements during follow-up were included in the calculation of the eGFR slope. Linear mixed-effects regression was used to calculate the eGFR slope for each individual, which was then re-expressed as the percentage change per year of eGFR. A rapid decline in eGFR was defined as a decline of ≥3.3% in eGFR per year[20, 21]. (2) Albuminuria progression was defined as the development of either microalbuminuria or macroalbuminuria from normal albuminuria at baseline, or macroalbuminuria from microalbuminuria at baseline. (3) Decline in eGFR and albuminuria progression (the composite endpoint, defined as the presence of albuminuria progression or a rapid decline in eGFR of ≥3.3% per year).
2.7. Statistical analysis
Participants were divided into quartiles (Q) based on their LTL levels. Continuous variables with normal distribution are expressed as mean ± standard deviations (SDs), whereas non-normally distributed variables are presented as median and interquartile range. Categorical variables are expressed as numbers with corresponding percentages. Comparisons between groups were performed using a one-way analysis of variance for continuous variables and the c2 test for categorical variables. Bonferroni correction was used for post-hoc comparisons.
The associations between LTL and the outcomes were analyzed using logistic regression analysis, with odds ratios (OR) and associated 95% confidence intervals (CIs) computed for quartiles of baseline LTL and one SD change in baseline LTL. For the computation of ORs for one SD decrease in baseline LTL, a minus z-score for LTL was calculated for each participant. Four models were generated: Model 1 was adjusted for age and sex; Model 2 for Model 1 plus BMI and WC; Model 3 for Model 2 plus diabetes status, history of hypertension, and hyperlipidemia; and Model 4 for Model 3 plus SBP, DBP, and biochemical indicators (total cholesterol [TC], triglycerides [TG], high-density lipoprotein cholesterol [HDL-C], and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol [LDL-C]).
To explore whether oxidative stress and inflammatory markers mediated the effect of LTL on kidney dysfunction, PROCESS macro version 3.4.1 (www.afhayes.com)was used to generate simple mediation models with ordinary least squares.
A two-sided P<0.05 was considered statistically significant. Statistical analysis was performed using IBM SPSS Statistics for Windows, version 26.0 (IBM Corporation, Armonk, NY, USA).