Currently, no recognized standard exists in lumbar fusion surgery for reconstruction and restoration of LL. In the past, LL reconstruction success was mainly based on the personal experience of the surgeon. In recent years, some authors have put forward prediction models for LL reconstruction, proposing methods to determine the degree of LL correction [10, 11, 14, 15, 17]. It is well known that maintaining global sagittal position is essential for a high quality of life and improving the postoperative outcomes of spinal surgery [9]. Lumbar lordosis is critical to maintaining the sagittal balance of the spine. The first step in reconstructing the sagittal balance of the spine is the restoration of a reasonable lumbar lordosis [18, 19]. Bernhardt and Bridwell [8] studied the alignment of the normal segments of the thoracic and lumbar spine to provide guidance for reorientation of the procedure. These researchers found significant differences in the lumbar lordosis between individuals. However, they recognized a progressive increase in lumbar lordosis from the upper to the lower lumbar segments, with two-thirds of the lumbar lordosis occurring from L4 to S1 segments. The notion that the lower two segments of the lumbar region are important areas for observation in lumbar reconstruction supports the strategy of adjusting the lower lumbar spine to restore the segmental lordosis to two-thirds of the total lordotic target. Therefore, the reconstruction of the lower lumbar vertebrae or segmental reduction of the lower lumbar spine is particularly important during the reconstruction of lumbar lordosis. Senteler et al. [20] found that recovery of sufficient lumbar lordosis during low lumbar fusion surgery (L4-S1) is beneficial to slow down the degeneration of the adjacent segments. Therefore, to restore sufficient lumbar lordosis during lumbar degenerative lesions and spinal deformity surgery, especially in the recovery of L4-S1 segmental lumbar lordosis, the avoidance of the occurrence of degeneration of adjacent segments after lumbar reconstruction is an important consideration.
Many studies have presented predictive models for LL and given input values of certain pelvic parameters; PI has been a primary focus in such investigations [10, 12, 14, 17, 21–23, 26]. Barrett et al. [23] reported the use of PI to predict lumbar lordosis, but their findings do not apply to adults because the average age of their participants was 13 ± 2 years. On the other hand, previous studies have shown that PI in children and adolescents changes with age. This change not only affects the accuracy of any linear regression prediction model for LL based on PI, but also the validity of the use of adolescent prediction algorithms in adult patients. In this respect, Xu et al. [17] attempted to analyze the correlation between LL and PI, age, gender, and body mass index (BMI) in 296 asymptomatic Chinese adults and finally deduced an LL prediction model by the inclusion of PI and age: LL = 0.508 × PI − 0.088 × age + 28.6. Although their formula seems to be more accurate in predicting LL in Chinese, it cannot be used for patients with various diseases with sagittal deformities, and age has an important influence on the natural history of sagittal changes in adult spine. Boulay et al. [12] attempted to establish an equation for predicting LL by TK, SS, PI, and T9 tilt angles. This equation was more accurate in predicting lumbar lordosis in normal adults, but not in various diseases with sagittal contour abnormalities, because the tilt angles of TK, SS, and T9 change in degenerative lumbar disease. Nevertheless, incorporating more parameter variables into an LL prediction would increase its accuracy and improve the prediction ability of its equation. In addition, the inclusion of multiple variables would not only lead to difficulties in clinical application; the interaction between variables cause large deviations between predicted and actual values, which may affect surgical strategies and even the postoperative outcome. Therefore, Schwab et al. [14] revisited the multi-parameter prediction models for LL and suggested that these models could be simplified by relying only on PI and effectively predicting LL. They put forward the following formula: LL = PI + 9° (± 9°). However, the Oswestry Dysfunction Index (ODI) of LL patients with PI higher than 9° was significantly higher than that of LL patients with PI greater than or less than 9°. Finally, the formula was simplified as follows: LL = PI + 9° [10].
Although a significant correlation between PI and LL has been reported in several publications, including this study, PI may be affected by other parameters, such as PT, SS, and TK. In addition, LL may also be influenced by TK as a reciprocal mechanism [24]. In this study, we found that PI was significantly correlated with LL (r = 0.765, P < 0.001), SS (r = 0.610, P < 0.001), PT (r = 0.490, P < 0.001), and TK (r = 0.509, P < 0.001). There was a close correlation between LL and SS (r = 0.669, P < 0.001) and TK (r = 0.676, P < 0.001). Earlier studies showed that with aging, thoracic kyphosis and SS increase or decrease, but asymptomatic individuals can maintain the balance of sagittal alignment of the spine [11, 19]. Schwab et al. [14] revealed that the sacral slope may be affected by pelvic retroversion and knee flexion typical of patients with significant loss of lumbar lordosis. This is the reason why both TK and SS have a high correlation with LL and are not included as variables in the predicted equation. However, we also consider that the correlation between these data may have clinical implications for specific surgical plans aimed at the reconstruction of reasonable lumbar curvature. Therefore, this shortage might be a limitation of this study.
Here, we established that the tests in the validation queue showed a good correlation between the predicted and the actual LL (r = 0.522), with an average absolute error (MAE) of 5.6° (Table 6). We found that, compared with the other six aforementioned formulas, the current formula had the lowest MAE value. In addition to the current formula, the MAE of all other prediction models of LL based on PI was greater than 11° (Table 6). Overall, these results indicated that our predictive equation was stable and reliable in terms of clinical application.
This study has several other limitations in addition to the ones mentioned above. First, the sample size of this study was relatively small, which to some extent weakened the statistical power of the study and its ability to detect correlations. Second, other radiological measurements (e.g. sacral slope and thoracic kyphosis) that could affect HRQOL were not included. Third, we did not analyze the potential association between the lower extremity and lordosis shape. Finally, it could be considered that HRQOL was evaluated by only ODI, and thus our results may be biased. In particular, evaluation using multiple tools can lead to more detailed disability information in HRQOL determination. However, the reason for using ODI in this investigation is that non-pathological cut-off values of radiographic parameters (i.e., SS, SVA, and PT.) were assessed based on the ODI reported in a previous study [25]. Despite the limited sample size, we were able to find the relationship between pelvic anatomy and lumbar spine shape. The findings of thins study provide a new perspective in the surgical strategies for the reconstruction of a reasonable lumbar lordosis.