In this study, we assessed the effect of variables at diagnosis on the risk of CVD during follow-up in AAV patients and found several interesting findings. Firstly, the prevalence of MetS based on the 2005 NCEP-ATP-III criteria was 50.9% in all AAV patients, which was significantly higher than 37.8% in age- and gender-matched controls. The 2013 annual report regarding the prevalence of MetS in approximately 10 million Korean individuals with an average age of 50.8 years and BMI of 23.9 kg/m2 analysed the overall prevalence of MetS as 30.5% [24]. The next version of the report, Metabolic Syndrome Fact Sheet in Korea 2018, reported the increased prevalence of Mets of Korean people of an average age of 50 s up to 37.9% [25], which supports that controls in this study were representative of the general Korean population of an average age of 50 s. Moreover, the prevalence of MetS in AAV patients in Korea was slightly higher than that in the UK [12]. Despite insufficient studies investigating the prevalence of MetS in AAV patients, this discordance might be considered to appear due to the different ethnic or geographical backgrounds [26].
Secondly, the prevalence of MetS was significantly higher in nonobese AAV patients than that in nonobese controls (46.5% vs. 28.2%). This result may suggest the contribution of the inflammatory burden of AAV to the presence of MetS in AAV patients beyond obesity and its related complications. Interestingly, in the UK study, no difference in BMI between AAV patients and controls was observed [12]. Whereas, in our study, BMI of AAV patients was significantly lower than that of controls, which exhibited an opposite tendency of the prevalence of MetS. Although BMI is not one of the components of the 2005 NCEP-ATP-III criteria, BMI is another independent index for determining obesity and considered one of the risks for MetS [6, 27]. This inverse tendency suggests that another unique risk factor exists in AAV patients other than the conventional risk factors for MetS in normal people and it was assumed as the inflammatory burden of AAV. To prove this assumption, we tried to compare the cross-sectional BVAS or FFS between the two studies but unfortunately, we could not due to no information on BVAS in the UK study.
Thirdly, unlike the comparison analysis between AAV patients and controls, BMI was strongly associated with the cross-sectional MetS as shown in the comparison analysis between AAV patients with MetS and those without MetS. Based on this result, it might be assumed that the general association between obesity and MetS became apparent when compared only in AAV patients, resulting from minimizing the influence of the inflammatory burden of AAV. However, the burden of inflammation was not thoroughly removed, because BVAS was assessed significantly elevated in AAV patients with MetS, compared to those without MetS. Thus, this result may suggest the cooperative contribution of AAV activity to the presence of MetS in AAV patients along with obesity and its related complications.
Supposed that variables directly related to the 2005 NCEP-ATP-III criteria were excluded, two categories of the risk factors at diagnosis for the cross-section MetS could be organized: one is the conventional risk factors such as age, BMI, diabetes mellitus, hypertension and dyslipidaemia; and the other is the AAV-specific inflammatory variables such as BVAS, FFS, haemoglobin, platelet count, creatinine, serum albumin, ESR and CRP at diagnosis. Using these variables, we conducted the multivariable logistic regression analysis and found that BMI, diabetes mellitus, hypertension and dyslipidaemia were independently and significantly associated with the cross-sectional MetS at diagnosis. By contrast, none of the AAV-specific inflammatory variables were significantly associated with the cross-sectional MetS. This analysis gave two conclusions: one is that BVAS itself might not be independently associated with the cross-sectional MetS in AAV patients, and the other is that BMI might independently contribute to the cross-sectional MetS in AAV patients and AAV activity might consolidate the association between BMI and MetS at diagnosis.
Since BMI was an independent variable that could predict the cross-sectional MetS in AAV patients, we calculated the optimal cut-off of BMI at diagnosis for the cross-sectional Mets using the ROC curve analysis. We determined the BMI of 22.9 kg/m2 as the cut-off for a strong predictor of the cross-sectional MetS (area 0.686, 95% CI 0.606, 0.766, P < 0.001, sensitivity 62.5%, specificity 75.3%) (Supplementary Fig. 1A). When we classified AAV patients into the two groups based on the cut-off of BMI and assessed its relative risk for the occurrence of the cross-sectional MetS using the chi-square test, 76 AAV patients were partitioned into the group of BMI ≥ 22.9 kg/m2. The cross-sectional MetS was identified more frequently in AAV patients with BMI ≥ 22.9 kg/m2 than those without (72.4% vs. 34.0%, P < 0.001). Furthermore, patients with BMI ≥ 22.9 kg/m2 had the significantly higher relative risk of having the cross-sectional MetS than those without (RR 5.079, 95% CI 2.638, 9.780) (Supplementary Fig. 1B).
Prior to the investigation, it should be noted that except for relapse of AAV, Mets could increase the risks of all-cause mortality [28], chronic kidney disease or ESRD [29], CVA [30] and CVD [28, 31, 32] in both AAV patients and the general population with MetS. In addition, AAV itself without MetS also could increase the risk for CVD compared to healthy people [14, 33]. Therefore, it should not be ignored that both AAV entity and the cross-sectional MetS at diagnosis may be simultaneously engaged in CVD occurrence in AAV patients: MetS might significantly initiate CVD occurrence and AAV might accelerate it. On the other hand, unlike, the UK study [12], we could not find any link between MetS at diagnosis and relapse during follow-up in this study.
Fourthly, Mets at diagnosis significantly reduced the cumulative CVD-free survival rate and both BVAS and Mets at diagnosis significantly associated with CVD in nonobese AAV patients. In the survival analysis, MetS at diagnosis significantly reduced the cumulative CVD-free survival rate only in nonobese AAV patients. Whereas, obese AAV patients showed no association between MetS at diagnosis and CVD occurrence during follow-up. This result may suggest that the independent contribution of MetS to the development of CVD would have been offset because MetS is closely related to obesity itself and obesity-related complications in obese AAV patients. For this reason, the effect of MetS on the risk of CVD might be clearer in nonobese AAV patients. In addition, to discover the independent predictors of and contributors to CVD occurrence during follow-up in nonobese AAV patients, we conducted the multivariable Cox hazards model analysis using variables with P value less than 0.05 in the univariable analysis. In the multivariable analysis excluding variables related to the 2005 NCEP-ATP-III criteria, BVAS and MetS at diagnosis had influence on CVD in nonobese AAV patients. This result might support our assumption that both AAV entity and metabolic abnormalities could enhance the risk of CVD in nonobese AAV patients.
Our study has several limitations. Controls, who visited Severance Executive Healthcare Clinic in Severance Hospital, and the two-thirds of AAV patients, who belong to the prospective cohort of AAV in our hospital, had information on smoking history, alcohol consumption, and family history of MetS and CVD. However, we could not gather them from all AAV patients and controls due to the nature of a retrospective study. In addition, the number of AAV patients of this study, particularly patients with CVD occurrence, was not large enough to represent all Korean patients with AAV, due to a limitation of a monocentric study. Nevertheless, we believe that this study has significant clinical implications as a pilot study in that we clarified the effect of BVAS and MetS at diagnosis on the risk of CVD in all or nonobese AAV patients, for the first time. In the near future, a prospective and multicentre study with a larger number of AAV patients will compensate for the limitations of this study.