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Research Article
ALBA DE LA VARA
Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha Facultad de Ciencias Ambientales y Bioquimica
Corresponding Author
ORCiD: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8877-6361
License:
This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License. Read Full License
In this work we use a regional ocean-atmosphere coupled model (RAOCM) and its stand-alone atmospheric component to gain insight into the impact of atmosphere-ocean coupling on the climate change signal over the Iberian Peninsula (IP). The IP is a well suited location for this study as high-resolution models are required to realistically reproduce its current and future climate. We find that under the RCP8.5 scenario, the generalized 2-m air temperature (T2M) increase by the end of the 21st century (2070-2099) in the atmospheric-only simulation is tempered by the coupling. The impact of coupling is specially seen in summer, when the warming is stronger. Precipitation shows regionally-dependent changes in winter, whilst a drier climate is found in summer. The coupling generally reduces the magnitude of the changes. Differences in T2M and precipitation between coupled and uncoupled simulations are caused by changes in the Atlantic large-scale circulation and in the Mediterranean Sea. Additionally, the differences in projected changes of T2M and precipitation with the RAOCM under the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios are tackled. Results show that in winter and summer T2M increases less and precipitation changes are of a smaller magnitude with the RCP4.5. Whilst in summer changes present a similar regional distribution in both runs, in winter there are some differences in the NW of the IP due to differences in the North Atlantic circulation. The differences in the climate change signal from the RAOCM and the driving Global Coupled Model shows the added value of regionalization in terms of higher resolution over the land and ocean.
Keywords
regional ocean-atmosphere coupled model (RAOCM), Iberian Peninsula (IP), drier climate, summer
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- FIG1S.png
Figure 1S. This has been taken from Cabos et al. (2020). Panel A: ROM atmospheric and oceanic grids. The red line shows the limits of the atmospheric domain, while the black lines represent the oceanic mesh (each 12th line is shown). Panel B: Topography of the Iberian Peninsula adopted in this study. Panel C: Illustration of the main ocean currents in the North Atlantic. WBC Western Boundary Current, NAC North Atlantic Current, AC Azores Current, CC Canary Current, PC Portugal Current, NWC Northwestern Corner.
- FIG2S.png
Figure 2S. Annual time series of 2-m air temperature (ºC; panel A) and precipitation (mm/d; panel B) averaged over the IP for MPI-ESM RCP4.5 (brown lines), MPI-ESM RCP8.5 (black lines), ROM RCP4.5 (green lines), ROM RCP8.5 (blue lines) and REMO RCP8.5 (red lines) for the 2006-2099 time period.
- FIG3S.png
Figure 3S. Winter differences in simulated 850 hPa winds (m/s) and 2-m air temperature (ºC) by ROM and REMO for the 2070-2099 time period.
- FIG4S.png
Figure 4S. Winter averages of future latent heat flux in W/m2 (A, D), precipitation in mm/d (B, E) and horizontal transport of cloud water in kg*m/s (C, F) in ROM (first row) and REMO (second row) in the RCP8.5 scenario. Positive values in panels A and D indicate that the atmosphere gains heat.
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This preprint is under consideration at Climate Dynamics. A preprint is a preliminary version of a manuscript that has not completed peer review at a journal. Research Square does not conduct peer review prior to posting preprints. The posting of a preprint on this server should not be interpreted as an endorsement of its validity or suitability for dissemination as established information or for guiding clinical practice.
Learn more about In Review
Research Article
ALBA DE LA VARA
Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha Facultad de Ciencias Ambientales y Bioquimica
Corresponding Author
ORCiD: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8877-6361
Badges
Prescreen
This manuscript passed our Prescreen assessment
Complete author information
Appropriate declaration statements
Potential risks to human health
Prescreen
Peer Review Timeline
CURRENT STATUS: Under Review
Version 1
Posted 16 Mar, 2021
No community comments so far
Review #? received
Received 08 Mar, 2021
Reviewers invited
Invitations sent on 03 Mar, 2021
Editor assigned
On 01 Mar, 2021
First submitted
On 01 Mar, 2021
License:
This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License. Read Full License
In this work we use a regional ocean-atmosphere coupled model (RAOCM) and its stand-alone atmospheric component to gain insight into the impact of atmosphere-ocean coupling on the climate change signal over the Iberian Peninsula (IP). The IP is a well suited location for this study as high-resolution models are required to realistically reproduce its current and future climate. We find that under the RCP8.5 scenario, the generalized 2-m air temperature (T2M) increase by the end of the 21st century (2070-2099) in the atmospheric-only simulation is tempered by the coupling. The impact of coupling is specially seen in summer, when the warming is stronger. Precipitation shows regionally-dependent changes in winter, whilst a drier climate is found in summer. The coupling generally reduces the magnitude of the changes. Differences in T2M and precipitation between coupled and uncoupled simulations are caused by changes in the Atlantic large-scale circulation and in the Mediterranean Sea. Additionally, the differences in projected changes of T2M and precipitation with the RAOCM under the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios are tackled. Results show that in winter and summer T2M increases less and precipitation changes are of a smaller magnitude with the RCP4.5. Whilst in summer changes present a similar regional distribution in both runs, in winter there are some differences in the NW of the IP due to differences in the North Atlantic circulation. The differences in the climate change signal from the RAOCM and the driving Global Coupled Model shows the added value of regionalization in terms of higher resolution over the land and ocean.
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