Difference in abundances of infiltrating immune cells in GBM between PD-1 inhibitor responders and non-responders
To explore the relationship between abundances of infiltrating immune cells in GBM and response to PD-1 inhibitors, the component fractions of 22 types of immune cells in the TME of each patient before and after anti-PD-1 treatment were calculated by deconvoluting the bulk RNA-seq taking the transcriptome map of 22 types of human immune cells (Newman et al., 2019) as reference.
The comparison of abundances of infiltrating immune cells between PD-1 inhibitor responders (n = 9) and non-responders (n = 7) before PD-1 inhibitor treatment showed that the abundance of M0 macrophages of responders was lower while the abundance of activated DCs was higher (Fig. 1A; Wilcoxon test; M0 macrophages, p = 0.047; activated DCs, p = 0.029), which suggest that low abundance of M0 macrophages and high abundance of activated DCs in the TME of GBM might be predictive factors for response to PD-1 inhibitors.
The comparison of abundances of infiltrating immune cells between PD-1 inhibitor responders (n = 7) and non-responders (n = 2) after PD-1 inhibitor treatment showed that the abundances of plasma cells and M0 macrophages of responders was lower (Fig. 1B; Wilcoxon test; plasma cells, p = 0.024; M0 macrophages, p = 0.037), which suggest that macrophages and antibodies might play a certain role in the treatment of GBM with PD-1 inhibitors.
Genes expression and pathway regulations related to response to PD-1 inhibitors
Differentially expressed genes analysis was considered to further excavate genes that are predictive for response to PD-1 inhibitors. Taking into consideration of the high heterogeneity of the micro-environment of GBM, we first constructed the TME transcriptome map of 9 types of cells by analyzing a scRNA-seq data from 4 GBM patients (Darmanis et al., 2017) (Fig. 2).
Combing that and the transcriptome map of 22 types of human immune cells as reference, the expression profiles of neoplastic cells, lymphocytes, and myeloid cells within the bulk RNA-seq of GBM treated with PD-1 inhibitors was calculated by deconvolution to reduce the interference caused by the heterogeneity between cell subpopulations. With that, the differentially expressed genes analysis was performed and 384 differentially expressed genes of neoplastic cells (Fig. 3A), 81 differentially expressed genes of lymphocytes (Fig. 2B) and 205 differentially expressed genes of myeloid cells (Fig. 3C) was identified.
Gene set enrichment analysis (GSEA) was performed to explore changes of pathways in the micro-environment of responders compared to non-responders before PD-1 blockade treatment based on the differential gene expression analysis. GSEA of neoplastic cells showed that the up-regulation pathways of responders mainly included the regulation of T-helper 1 type immune response, the positive regulation of natural killer cell mediated cytotoxicity and p53 signaling pathway; the down-regulation pathways mainly included the activation of microglia and myeloid leukocytes and Ras signaling pathway (Fig. 4A). GSEA of lymphocytes showed that the up-regulation pathways in responders mainly included the positive regulation of cell population proliferation and the regulation of cellular amide metabolic process (Fig. 4B). GSEA of myeloid cells showed that the up-regulation pathways in responders mainly included cell-substrate junction, integrin mediated signaling pathway, homotypic cell-cell adhesion and leukocyte mediated cytotoxicity (Fig. 4C).
Identification of predictive genes of response to PD-1 inhibitors in GBM
With the expression profiles of immune cells of 27 pre-treatment samples from 17 patients (all pre-samples of the same patient were included to expand the sample size) based on deconvoluting the GBM bulk RNA-seq and the differentially expressed genes of the immune cells, 15 predictive genes of response to PD-1 inhibitors with nonzero coefficients, ASS1, NR1H3, ITGAX, CPEB1, LRRFIP1, FKBP5, DNAJC5B, PI4K2A, TESK2, USB1, HIAT1, NCOA7, FMN1, GALC and SPNS3, were screened by least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression (Fig. 5).
Preclinical and clinical evidences suggested a strong expression correlation between PD-L1 and the response to PD-1 inhibitors in multiple malignant tumors (Davis and Patel, 2019; Lantuejoul et al., 2020), according to which four predictive genes highly correlated to PD-L1 at transcription level were further screened by expression correlation analysis (Table 1). The four predictive genes were ITGAX, LRRFIP1, PI4K2A and FMN1, PI4K2A of which was next removed in order to select genes as independent factors of response to PD-1 inhibitors due to the multi-collinearity between PI4K2A and LRRFIP1 that was found by calculating the variance inflation factor (ITGAX, VIF = 1.482; LRRFIP1, VIF = 5.879 > 5; FMN1, VIF = 2.147; PI4K2A, VIF = 8.122 > 5) of each gene in the linear regression and analyzing the expression correlation between them (Fig. 6).
Table 1
Expression correlation between 15 candidate response prediction genes and PD-L1 in GBM
Gene | Spearman correlation coefficient (ρ) | Spearman correlation P value |
LRRFIP1 | 0.47 | \(\text{2×}{\text{10}}^{\text{-10}}\) |
ITGAX | 0.36 | \(\text{3.3×}{\text{10}}^{\text{-6}}\) |
FMN1 | 0.35 | \(\text{4.2×}{\text{10}}^{\text{-6}}\) |
PI4K2A | 0.32 | \(\text{3.7×}{\text{10}}^{\text{-5}}\) |
GALC | 0.3 | \(\text{8.2×}{\text{10}}^{\text{-5}}\) |
HIAT1 | 0.3 | \(\text{1×}{\text{10}}^{\text{-4}}\) |
FKBP5 | 0.29 | 0.00018 |
USB1 | 0.28 | 0.00029 |
NR1H3 | 0.24 | 0.0018 |
NCOA7 | 0.23 | 0.0037 |
CPEB1 | 0.22 | 0.0047 |
SPNS3 | 0.21 | 0.0082 |
DNAJC5B | 0.051 | 0.52 |
ASS1 | -0.0073 | 0.93 |
TESK2 | -0.0066 | 0.93 |
Establishment and validation of response prediction model for PD-1 inhibitors in GBM
Three genes, ITGAX, LRRFIP1 and FMN1, was finally determined as the key genes predictive of response to PD-1 inhibitors in GBM and the response prediction model was constructed then by binary multiple logistic regression (Table 2, Fig. 7).
The probability for GBM patients to respond to PD-1 inhibitors can be calculated by the following formula according to the model:
$$P=\frac{1}{1+{e}^{-(-114.867+18.560\times (ITGAX)+473.179\times (LRRFIP1)-36.500\times (FMN1))}}$$
Transcriptome expression quality of ITGAX, LRRFIP1 and FMN1 in the formula can be obtained from the expression profiles of immune cells calculated by deconvoluting the bulk RNA-seq of GBM tumor tissue or directly from the bulk RNA-seq of immune cells sorted from GBM tumor tissue, following the max-min normalization as below according to the minimum value \({\text{m}\text{i}\text{n}\{x}_{i}\}\) and the maximum value \({\text{m}\text{a}\text{x}\{x}_{i}\}\) of \({x}_{i}\)--the expression value of ITGAX, LRRFIP1 and FMN1:
$${x}_{i}^{*}=\frac{{x}_{i}-{\text{m}\text{i}\text{n}\{x}_{i}\}}{{\text{m}\text{a}\text{x}\{x}_{i}\}-{\text{m}\text{i}\text{n}\{x}_{i}\}}$$
Table 2
Results of the multivariate logistic regression
Variable | Estimated regression coefficient | Z value of Wald’s test for regression coefficient | P value of Wald’s test for regression coefficient | Odds ratio (OR) |
ITGAX | 18.560 | 2.182 | 0.029 | 1.047 (1.005–1.091) |
LRRFIP1 | 473.179 | 2.382 | 0.017 | 3.215 (1.23–8.406) |
FMN1 | -36.500 | -1.793 | 0.073 | 0.914 (0.828–1.008) |
Then we performed leave-one-out cross validation (LOOCV) to test the model. The area under the curve (AUC) of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) was 0.922 (95% CI 0.791-1), suggesting a good discriminative ability (Fig. 8A). The P-value of the Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L) test was 0.574 and the calibration curves demonstrated a high consistency between prediction and actual observation, indicating a high prediction accuracy (Fig. 8B).
Clinical utility of the response prediction model
The clinical utility of the model was evaluated by the decision curve analysis (DCA) and the clinical impact curve (CIC).
The DCA curve showed that carrying out PD-1 blockade immunotherapy according to the model when the threshold probability was lower than 82% provided greater net benefit than the “treat all” or “treat none” strategies, indicating the high clinical value of the model (Fig. 9A).
The CIC showed that the population responsive to PD-1 inhibitors identified by the model was highly consistent with the actual population responded to PD-1 inhibitors when the threshold probability was higher than 70%, confirming the high clinical efficiency of the model (Fig. 9B).
Survival differences between patients with PD-1 blockade treatment classified by the model
The ultimate significance of drug response prediction models lies in whether patients can benefit from their application in survival time and survival outcomes. Therefore, we performed survival analysis to evaluate the survival significance of the model. The probabilities of response to PD-1 inhibitors of each patient in the internal cohort and the external cohort were calculated according to the bulk RNA-seq of tumor tissue sampled before (internal cohort) or on the early stage (external cohort) of the treatment by the model. The cohorts were next respectively divided into low predictive response group and high predictive response group by the median response probability to plot survival curves using Kaplan-Meier method and compare differences of the survival distributions using Log-rank test. The survival analysis of the internal cohort (n = 16) showed that the survival rate of the high predictive response group was higher than that of the low predictive response group (Log rank test, p = 0.033) (Fig. 10A). The survival analysis of the external cohort (n = 26) showed that the survival rate of the high predictive response group was markedly higher than that of the low predictive response group (Log rank test, p = 0.005) with a median survival time two time over that of the low predictive response group (Fig. 10B).
The difference of the distribution of survival time between the two groups was consistent with the prediction from the model both in the survival analyses of the internal cohort and the external cohort which indicated a certain predictive value for survival in GBM patients with PD-1 inhibitor treatment.