Novel plasma biomarkers for AD are a promising tool for diagnosing and classifying patients in hospital and primary care settings. Among them, p-tau231 rises in plasma very early and allows the detection of subjects at risk for AD [5, 9]. Previous studies in cognitively unimpaired individuals modelling the trajectory of p-tau231 showed that it increased significantly with a range of only 26.4 centiloids on Aβ PET [5]. In the same study, p-tau217 levels also raised very early but required a higher threshold of amyloid pathology [5]. On the other hand, p-tau181 is a very specific marker of AD and predicts cognitive impairment and hippocampal atrophy within one year, but it only increases significantly in plasma with much higher amyloid loads [5, 22]. The results of our study support the hypothesis that plasma p-tau231 changes occur very early, in the preclinical phase of AD, and are detectable even in individuals that, based on CSF biomarker results, would be considered as not in the AD continuum.
In a cognitively healthy population of, on average, 64.8 years, we have seen that p-tau231 increases sequentially in samples obtained with time differences of approximately one year. This increase was significantly detectable even in the A-T-N- group. Although it could constitute an ultra-early sign of amyloid dysmetabolism, its significance is still unclear and does not correlate with any cognitive, functional, or structural trait. To clarify this aspect of our findings, longer-term studies determining p-tau231 in A-T-N- subjects are necessary. In further studies, it would be interesting to check the evolution of p-tau231 in subjects who convert from A- to A + during follow-up. However, we have not been able to assess this point because we do not count with serial CSF measurements in our cohort. A similar trend of increase of p-tau231 from baseline to the first follow-up visit in A + T-N- and A + T + N + was found, though this was only significant in A + T-N-, which could be explained by the low numbers of the A + T + N + group (N = 12). This is a limitation of our study as some of the strata has low numbers, therefore, we might be underpowered for some of the analysis.
The linear mixed model adjusting, by ATN and other relevant covariates, estimated that the increase from sample point to sample point was of 1.93 units of p-tau231, and we did not find an interaction with the ATN groups; therefore, the slopes of the increase that we observed in the three ATN groups were not significantly different. This would point toward a lineal increase in our population of subjects around 65 years of age on average independent of their ATN status; however, some of our subgroups (especially the A + T + N+) had very low numbers, and we might be underpowered to detect interactions. A relevant aspect of our cohort is that it encompasses the age spectrum in which AD is known to begin to increase in incidence [23]. Even though age was only borderline significantly associated with p-tau231, we speculate that our population might be well-powered to detect early p-tau231 levels increase, reflecting an early stage in the neurodegeneration process.
Longitudinal studies with post-mortem anatomopathological examination mention that p-tau231 levels also increase in the late stages of AD and are higher than those of subjects with mild amyloid pathology [24]. This gradual correlation with the main pathological signatures of AD in clinicopathological studies suggests that the p-tau231 increase might be related to early AD changes. In this sense, p-tau231 has shown to be able to discriminate between Braak 0 and Braak I–II stages [25]. However, recent evidence indicates that, although p-tau217 increases progressively along the AD continuum, p-tau231 reaches a plateau and may not be useful for monitoring disease progression or long-term treatments efficacy [24]. In the case of p-tau181, it appears to act similarly to p-tau217, as it increases progressively along the AD continuum, including the preclinical stages, and its levels correlate well with amyloid pathology [26, 27].
To better characterize the early preclinical phase of AD, we correlated p-tau231 levels with phenotype. We found that the increase from baseline to the first follow-up did not correlate with any phenotypic trait. However, baseline levels were associated with cognitive measurements. In contrast to what appears to happen with p-tau217 and p-tau181, which associates with cortical atrophy in CU subjects [28, 29], we did not detect any significant correlation with structural measures such as hippocampal volume or glucose metabolism of different regions of interest for AD. This hints that p-tau231 levels rise even before clinically significant signs of neurodegeneration occur in neuroimaging.
However, basal levels of p-tau231 correlated with cognitive decline, measured by sensitive neuropsychological memory tests such as the FNAME and FCSRT. Interestingly, when we stratified by ATN, this happened only from the A + T-N- group onwards and progressively increased along the AD continuum. Moreover, this correlation remained significant after adjusting for covariates. These findings are in line with another previous study that has shown a correlation between baseline p-tau231 levels and longitudinal changes in cognition, determined by the Preclinical Alzheimer’s Cognitive Composite (PACC)) at three years, only in Aβ + subjects [5]. Our interpretation of this finding is that only in individuals with substantial amyloid deposition (positive CSF Aβ42/40 ratio) do we observe an association between tau pathology (p-tau231 plasma levels) and cognitive impairment.
For its part, in more recent studies, basal levels of plasma p-tau217 have been shown to correlate with a worsening of memory (word list delayed recall) in a group of CU presenilin-1 E280A carriers [30] and increases in this biomarker also correlate with a worsening in modified PACC and MMSE over as long as six years in Aβ + CU subjects [27]. P-tau181 is not altered as early as p-tau217 and p-tau231 but has shown to be a good predictor of progression to AD and is longitudinally related to cognitive decline through parameters such as the MMSE, CDR and PACC [31].
Some limitations of our study should be pointed out.First, we only have CSF from the baseline visit, so we cannot confirm whether any of the subjects changed their ATN group during the follow-up time. On the other hand, even though our main findings are statistically sound, the small sample size is a limitation for some of the stratified analyses so our results should be taken with caution and replications, ideally in larger and more ethnically heterogeneous samples, would be needed to confirm our conclusions.