Prediction of curve flattening time for COVID-19 infected countries using trends from recovered countries

DOI: https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-30358/v1

Abstract

The outbreak of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has resulted in a serious pandemic situation which the world is going through since the beginning of the year 2020. Given this, the infected countries are constantly increasing their lockdown period and therefore, experiencing an adverse impact on their socio-economic structure. With these motivations, this paper is an attempt to estimate the time that a country would take more to recover from COVID-19 situation. In this work, for curve fitting, the polynomial model has been used deliberately for easier interpretation of the technique. The methodology captures the characteristic trends of the already flattened curves from recovered countries and utilizes them to estimate the curve flattening time for the infected countries. The approach requires only the minimum set of data, i.e., the number of infected persons per day for a given country.

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Tables


Table 2 The RMSE values obtained from the proposed method and the SIR model for various countries to fit the COVID-19 pandemic curve

Countries

Polynomial order

RMSE (proposed model)

RMSE (existing SIR model)

Argentina

24

22

234

Australia

26

39

116

Austria

26

53

344

Belgium

26

166

719

Brazil

25

286

1384

Canada

22

108

1131

China

26

1032

1540

Croatia

27

7

37

Czech Rep.

26

33

257

Denmark

25

37

280

Estonia

25

15

42

Finland

26

25

160

France

26

542

1485

Germany

24

548

2361

Greece

23

17

48

Hungary

26

17

51

Iceland

28

8

17

India

22

77

865

Indonesia

24

26

371

Iran

26

290

2483

Italy

26

330

10455

Japan

24

101

575

Latvia

25

5

54

Lithuania

27

13

63

Netherlands

29

98

1246

New Zealand

27

6

15

Norway

26

37

191

Poland

28

33

699

Portugal

22

113

509

Romania

25

37

723

Russia

22

193

2138

Serbia

27

31

129

Singapore

24

85

289

Slovakia

26

13

44

Slovenia

29

9

28

South Korea

27

63

420

Spain

30

647

3354

Sweden

26

71

744

Switzerland

26

94

364

Turkey

28

235

4076

Ukraine

22

86

231

UK

21

435

3205

USA

22

2213

22488



Table 4: Estimated date of COVID-19 curve flattening for various countries reported based on data obtained till 8 May 2020

Corona infected countries (CIC)

Criteria used for selection of reference CRC

Reference

CRC

Proposed CFD

CFD as per existing SIR model

Average cases/day reported in last 1 week

Correlation

Infected people

Argentina

0.5698

(5358)

Australia

148

27-05-2020

15-09-2020

140

Austria

(0.9941)

15673

Australia

170

18-06-2020

10-05-2020

36

Belgium

0.5373

(51420)

South Korea

260

16-09-2020

15-06-2020

398

Brazil

(0.9311)

135106

China

326

21-11-2020

01-09-2020

7253

Canada

(0.7942)

64922

China

162

10-06-2020

15-07-2020

1644

Croatia

0.9441

(2125)

Iceland

132

11-05-2020

01-06-2020

7

Czech Rep.

0.9061

(8031)

Australia

123

02-05-2020

01-06-2020

49

Denmark

(0.9839)

10083

New Zealand

281

07-10-2020

10-07-2020

129

Estonia

0.8947

(1720)

Iceland

128

07-05-2020

01-06-2020

4

Finland

-0.4129

(5673)

Iceland

233

20-08-2020

01-08-2020

104

France

(0.9853)

137779

China

177

25-06-2020

01-06-2020

1266

Germany

0.9787

(167300)

China

198

16-07-2020

01-06-2020

933

Greece

(0.8280)

2678

New Zealand

141

20-05-2020

01-06-2020

15

Hungary

0.8967

(3178)

Iceland

158

06-06-2020

01-07-2020

39

India

(0.9557)

56342

China

194

12-07-2020

01-08-2020

3168

Indonesia

0.5866

(12776)

South Korea

174

21-06-2020

01-08-2020

371

Iran

0.9297

(103135)

China

151

30-05-2020

01-07-2020

1248

Italy

(0.9910)

215858

China

197

15-07-2020

01-07-2020

1405

Japan

0.9634

(15547)

South Korea

175

23-06-2020

07-06-2020

167

Latvia

0.9429

(909)

New Zealand

107

16-04-2020

10-06-2020

7

Lithuania

0.9971

1433)

Iceland

124

03-05-2020

01-06-2020

6

Netherlands

0.5464

(41774)

South Korea

229

16-08-2020

20-06-2020

331

Norway

0.8749

(7995)

Australia

120

29-04-2020

01-06-2020

39

Poland

-0.6631

(15047)

South Korea

169

17-06-2020

01-08-2020

324

Portugal

0.8775

(26715)

South Korea

182

30-06-2020

15-06-2020

227

Romania

-0.2949

(14499)

South Korea

170

18-06-2020

01-08-2020

322

Russia

(0.9508)

177160

China

342

07-12-2020

10-07-2020

10455

Serbia

0.8662

(9848)

South Korea

152

31-05-2020

15-06-2020

107

Singapore

(0.9981)

20939

Australia

223

10-08-2020

15-06-2020

640

Slovakia

0.8969

(1445)

New Zealand

144

23-05-2020

01-07-2020

7

Slovenia

0.7113

(1449)

New Zealand

119

28-04-2020

01-06-2020

3

Spain

(0.9860)

221447

China

250

06-09-2020

01-06-2020

811

Sweden

-0.0638

(24623)

South Korea

216

03-08-2020

15-08-2020

517

Switzerland

0.9254

(30043)

South Korea

209

27-07-2020

20-05-2020

70

Turkey

(0.9808)

133721

China

193

11-07-2020

15-06-2020

1888

Ukraine

0.4206

(13691)

South Korea

195

13-07-2020

01-07-2020

380

UK

-0.2070

(206715)

China

254

10-09-2020

01-07-2020

4877

USA*

(0.9874)

1256972

China

712

11-12-2021

01-07-2020

25532