tables
Table 2 The RMSE values obtained from the proposed method and the SIR model for various countries to fit the COVID-19 pandemic curve
|
Countries |
Polynomial order |
RMSE (proposed model) |
RMSE (existing SIR model) |
|
Argentina |
24 |
22 |
234 |
|
Australia |
26 |
39 |
116 |
|
Austria |
26 |
53 |
344 |
|
Belgium |
26 |
166 |
719 |
|
Brazil |
25 |
286 |
1384 |
|
Canada |
22 |
108 |
1131 |
|
China |
26 |
1032 |
1540 |
|
Croatia |
27 |
7 |
37 |
|
Czech Rep. |
26 |
33 |
257 |
|
Denmark |
25 |
37 |
280 |
|
Estonia |
25 |
15 |
42 |
|
Finland |
26 |
25 |
160 |
|
France |
26 |
542 |
1485 |
|
Germany |
24 |
548 |
2361 |
|
Greece |
23 |
17 |
48 |
|
Hungary |
26 |
17 |
51 |
|
Iceland |
28 |
8 |
17 |
|
India |
22 |
77 |
865 |
|
Indonesia |
24 |
26 |
371 |
|
Iran |
26 |
290 |
2483 |
|
Italy |
26 |
330 |
10455 |
|
Japan |
24 |
101 |
575 |
|
Latvia |
25 |
5 |
54 |
|
Lithuania |
27 |
13 |
63 |
|
Netherlands |
29 |
98 |
1246 |
|
New Zealand |
27 |
6 |
15 |
|
Norway |
26 |
37 |
191 |
|
Poland |
28 |
33 |
699 |
|
Portugal |
22 |
113 |
509 |
|
Romania |
25 |
37 |
723 |
|
Russia |
22 |
193 |
2138 |
|
Serbia |
27 |
31 |
129 |
|
Singapore |
24 |
85 |
289 |
|
Slovakia |
26 |
13 |
44 |
|
Slovenia |
29 |
9 |
28 |
|
South Korea |
27 |
63 |
420 |
|
Spain |
30 |
647 |
3354 |
|
Sweden |
26 |
71 |
744 |
|
Switzerland |
26 |
94 |
364 |
|
Turkey |
28 |
235 |
4076 |
|
Ukraine |
22 |
86 |
231 |
|
UK |
21 |
435 |
3205 |
|
USA |
22 |
2213 |
22488 |
Table 4: Estimated date of COVID-19 curve flattening for various countries reported based on data obtained till 8 May 2020
|
Corona infected countries (CIC) |
Criteria used for selection of reference CRC |
Reference CRC |
Proposed CFD |
CFD as per existing SIR model |
Average cases/day reported in last 1 week |
||
|
Correlation |
Infected people |
||||||
|
Argentina |
0.5698 |
(5358) |
Australia |
148 |
27-05-2020 |
15-09-2020 |
140 |
|
Austria |
(0.9941) |
15673 |
Australia |
170 |
18-06-2020 |
10-05-2020 |
36 |
|
Belgium |
0.5373 |
(51420) |
South Korea |
260 |
16-09-2020 |
15-06-2020 |
398 |
|
Brazil |
(0.9311) |
135106 |
China |
326 |
21-11-2020 |
01-09-2020 |
7253 |
|
Canada |
(0.7942) |
64922 |
China |
162 |
10-06-2020 |
15-07-2020 |
1644 |
|
Croatia |
0.9441 |
(2125) |
Iceland |
132 |
11-05-2020 |
01-06-2020 |
7 |
|
Czech Rep. |
0.9061 |
(8031) |
Australia |
123 |
02-05-2020 |
01-06-2020 |
49 |
|
Denmark |
(0.9839) |
10083 |
New Zealand |
281 |
07-10-2020 |
10-07-2020 |
129 |
|
Estonia |
0.8947 |
(1720) |
Iceland |
128 |
07-05-2020 |
01-06-2020 |
4 |
|
Finland |
-0.4129 |
(5673) |
Iceland |
233 |
20-08-2020 |
01-08-2020 |
104 |
|
France |
(0.9853) |
137779 |
China |
177 |
25-06-2020 |
01-06-2020 |
1266 |
|
Germany |
0.9787 |
(167300) |
China |
198 |
16-07-2020 |
01-06-2020 |
933 |
|
Greece |
(0.8280) |
2678 |
New Zealand |
141 |
20-05-2020 |
01-06-2020 |
15 |
|
Hungary |
0.8967 |
(3178) |
Iceland |
158 |
06-06-2020 |
01-07-2020 |
39 |
|
India |
(0.9557) |
56342 |
China |
194 |
12-07-2020 |
01-08-2020 |
3168 |
|
Indonesia |
0.5866 |
(12776) |
South Korea |
174 |
21-06-2020 |
01-08-2020 |
371 |
|
Iran |
0.9297 |
(103135) |
China |
151 |
30-05-2020 |
01-07-2020 |
1248 |
|
Italy |
(0.9910) |
215858 |
China |
197 |
15-07-2020 |
01-07-2020 |
1405 |
|
Japan |
0.9634 |
(15547) |
South Korea |
175 |
23-06-2020 |
07-06-2020 |
167 |
|
Latvia |
0.9429 |
(909) |
New Zealand |
107 |
16-04-2020 |
10-06-2020 |
7 |
|
Lithuania |
0.9971 |
1433) |
Iceland |
124 |
03-05-2020 |
01-06-2020 |
6 |
|
Netherlands |
0.5464 |
(41774) |
South Korea |
229 |
16-08-2020 |
20-06-2020 |
331 |
|
Norway |
0.8749 |
(7995) |
Australia |
120 |
29-04-2020 |
01-06-2020 |
39 |
|
Poland |
-0.6631 |
(15047) |
South Korea |
169 |
17-06-2020 |
01-08-2020 |
324 |
|
Portugal |
0.8775 |
(26715) |
South Korea |
182 |
30-06-2020 |
15-06-2020 |
227 |
|
Romania |
-0.2949 |
(14499) |
South Korea |
170 |
18-06-2020 |
01-08-2020 |
322 |
|
Russia |
(0.9508) |
177160 |
China |
342 |
07-12-2020 |
10-07-2020 |
10455 |
|
Serbia |
0.8662 |
(9848) |
South Korea |
152 |
31-05-2020 |
15-06-2020 |
107 |
|
Singapore |
(0.9981) |
20939 |
Australia |
223 |
10-08-2020 |
15-06-2020 |
640 |
|
Slovakia |
0.8969 |
(1445) |
New Zealand |
144 |
23-05-2020 |
01-07-2020 |
7 |
|
Slovenia |
0.7113 |
(1449) |
New Zealand |
119 |
28-04-2020 |
01-06-2020 |
3 |
|
Spain |
(0.9860) |
221447 |
China |
250 |
06-09-2020 |
01-06-2020 |
811 |
|
Sweden |
-0.0638 |
(24623) |
South Korea |
216 |
03-08-2020 |
15-08-2020 |
517 |
|
Switzerland |
0.9254 |
(30043) |
South Korea |
209 |
27-07-2020 |
20-05-2020 |
70 |
|
Turkey |
(0.9808) |
133721 |
China |
193 |
11-07-2020 |
15-06-2020 |
1888 |
|
Ukraine |
0.4206 |
(13691) |
South Korea |
195 |
13-07-2020 |
01-07-2020 |
380 |
|
UK |
-0.2070 |
(206715) |
China |
254 |
10-09-2020 |
01-07-2020 |
4877 |
|
USA* |
(0.9874) |
1256972 |
China |
712 |
11-12-2021 |
01-07-2020 |
25532 |