This preprint is under consideration at Scientific Reports. A preprint is a preliminary version of a manuscript that has not completed peer review at a journal. Research Square does not conduct peer review prior to posting preprints. The posting of a preprint on this server should not be interpreted as an endorsement of its validity or suitability for dissemination as established information or for guiding clinical practice.
Learn more about In Review
Research Article
Muriel Ramirez-Santana
Catholic University of the North
Corresponding Author
License:
This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License. Read Full License
Many non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) have been implemented in several countries to prevent and mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic. In spite of the emergence of vaccines that mitigate illness and death, no effective measures exist to control the contagion. Testing, tracing, and isolation (TTI) in conjunction with disciplined social distancing were expected to achieve negligible-contagion levels and avoid, for example, superspreading events 1. However, the logic sustaining these strategieshas proven insufficient and a commitment to implementing them leads to controversial ethical challenges. This paper focuses on the effectiveness of contagion control policies that are independent of the ethical challenges that the chosen strategies pose, and of the complex realities of different countries, that are applicable both country-wide and at the local level. Even more relevant is that our performance measure indicators are given by variables that provide an early warning as to when the epidemic might expand, despite some temporal case decrements. We show that if case reduction is not sustained for more than 7-14 days, the risk growth is considerable, warranting immediate attention and action. To draw these conclusions, our research does not only follow the contagion change but its velocity, and applies these indicators to a sample of prototypical countries, finding strong evidence for our conclusions. The latter are independent of different applied NPI and country differences, suggesting that they can be used as "universal" indicators for epidemic control policies. Our main conclusion is that if the spread reduction is lost during one, or at most two weeks, immediate measures have to be implemented to avoid undesirable scenarios.
Keywords
COVID-19, control, Efficient strategy evaluation
Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3
Figure 4
Figure 5
This preprint is available for download as a PDF.
No competing interests reported.
This is a list of supplementary files associated with this preprint. Click to download.
Loading...
Badges
Prescreen
This manuscript passed our Prescreen assessment
Complete author information
Appropriate declaration statements
Potential risks to human health
Prescreen
Peer Review Timeline
CURRENT STATUS: Under Review
Version 1
Posted 17 Mar, 2021
No community comments so far
Review #3 received
Received 18 Mar, 2021
Review #1 received
Received 18 Mar, 2021
Review #2 received
Received 18 Mar, 2021
Reviewer #4 agreed
On 18 Mar, 2021
Reviewer #1 agreed
On 18 Mar, 2021
Reviewer #2 agreed
On 18 Mar, 2021
Reviewer #3 agreed
On 18 Mar, 2021
Reviewers invited
Invitations sent on 17 Mar, 2021
Editor assigned
On 17 Mar, 2021
Editor invited
On 16 Mar, 2021
Submission checks complete
On 16 Mar, 2021
First submitted
On 06 Mar, 2021
Metrics
Comments: 0
PDF Downloads: ...
HTML Views: ...
Learn more about our company.
This preprint is under consideration at Scientific Reports. A preprint is a preliminary version of a manuscript that has not completed peer review at a journal. Research Square does not conduct peer review prior to posting preprints. The posting of a preprint on this server should not be interpreted as an endorsement of its validity or suitability for dissemination as established information or for guiding clinical practice.
Learn more about In Review
Research Article
Muriel Ramirez-Santana
Catholic University of the North
Corresponding Author
Badges
Prescreen
This manuscript passed our Prescreen assessment
Complete author information
Appropriate declaration statements
Potential risks to human health
Prescreen
Peer Review Timeline
CURRENT STATUS: Under Review
Version 1
Posted 17 Mar, 2021
No community comments so far
Review #3 received
Received 18 Mar, 2021
Review #1 received
Received 18 Mar, 2021
Review #2 received
Received 18 Mar, 2021
Reviewer #4 agreed
On 18 Mar, 2021
Reviewer #1 agreed
On 18 Mar, 2021
Reviewer #2 agreed
On 18 Mar, 2021
Reviewer #3 agreed
On 18 Mar, 2021
Reviewers invited
Invitations sent on 17 Mar, 2021
Editor assigned
On 17 Mar, 2021
Editor invited
On 16 Mar, 2021
Submission checks complete
On 16 Mar, 2021
First submitted
On 06 Mar, 2021
Metrics
Comments: 0
PDF Downloads: ...
HTML Views: ...
License:
This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License. Read Full License
Many non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) have been implemented in several countries to prevent and mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic. In spite of the emergence of vaccines that mitigate illness and death, no effective measures exist to control the contagion. Testing, tracing, and isolation (TTI) in conjunction with disciplined social distancing were expected to achieve negligible-contagion levels and avoid, for example, superspreading events 1. However, the logic sustaining these strategieshas proven insufficient and a commitment to implementing them leads to controversial ethical challenges. This paper focuses on the effectiveness of contagion control policies that are independent of the ethical challenges that the chosen strategies pose, and of the complex realities of different countries, that are applicable both country-wide and at the local level. Even more relevant is that our performance measure indicators are given by variables that provide an early warning as to when the epidemic might expand, despite some temporal case decrements. We show that if case reduction is not sustained for more than 7-14 days, the risk growth is considerable, warranting immediate attention and action. To draw these conclusions, our research does not only follow the contagion change but its velocity, and applies these indicators to a sample of prototypical countries, finding strong evidence for our conclusions. The latter are independent of different applied NPI and country differences, suggesting that they can be used as "universal" indicators for epidemic control policies. Our main conclusion is that if the spread reduction is lost during one, or at most two weeks, immediate measures have to be implemented to avoid undesirable scenarios.
Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3
Figure 4
Figure 5
This preprint is available for download as a PDF.
Loading...