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Research Article
Transmission Dynamics of COVID-19 in Bangladesh- A Compartmental Modeling Approach
Abul Mukid Md. Mukaddes
Shahjalal University of Science and Technology
Corresponding Author
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The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was first identified in Bangldesh, on March 8, 2020. As of May 15, there are 20065 confirmed COVID-19 cases, including 3882 patients who have recovered and 298 related deaths. The objective of this study is to examine the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 and predict the growth of the infection in Bangladesh using the publicly available data though a mathematical model. The suscected-exposed-infectious-recoverd-dead (SEIRD) model is employed to describe the dynamics based on the kinematic parameters fitted on the data for the outbreak in Bangladesh up to May 15. The expression of basic reproduction number using the next generating matrix is derived and estimated. The kinematic parameters that describe transmission rate (0.045), recovery rate (0.03) and death rate (0.01) seems to be lower, respective of other countries. Based on the official counts for confirmed cases, the simulations suggest that the cumulative number of active infected follows an exponential trend. The mean reproduction number 2.25 (95% CI: 1.90-2.40) and transmission trends clearly indicates the outbreak of COVID-19 in Bangladesh. There is now breakneck concern regarding the capacity to respond to needs of infected patients effectively and to prevent this pandemic from further spreading in Bangladesh, one of the densest countries in the world.
Keywords
coronavirus, SEIRD, kinematic parameters, reproduction number, simulation
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This is a preprint. It has not completed peer review.
Research Article
Transmission Dynamics of COVID-19 in Bangladesh- A Compartmental Modeling Approach
Abul Mukid Md. Mukaddes
Shahjalal University of Science and Technology
Corresponding Author
Badges
Prescreen
This manuscript passed our Prescreen assessment
Complete author information
Appropriate declaration statements
Potential risks to human health
Prescreen
History
CURRENT STATUS: Posted
Version 1
Posted 26 May, 2020
No community comments so far
Metrics
Comments: 0
PDF Downloads: ...
HTML Views: ...
Subject Areas
Biotechnology and Bioengineering
License:
This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License. Read Full License
The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was first identified in Bangldesh, on March 8, 2020. As of May 15, there are 20065 confirmed COVID-19 cases, including 3882 patients who have recovered and 298 related deaths. The objective of this study is to examine the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 and predict the growth of the infection in Bangladesh using the publicly available data though a mathematical model. The suscected-exposed-infectious-recoverd-dead (SEIRD) model is employed to describe the dynamics based on the kinematic parameters fitted on the data for the outbreak in Bangladesh up to May 15. The expression of basic reproduction number using the next generating matrix is derived and estimated. The kinematic parameters that describe transmission rate (0.045), recovery rate (0.03) and death rate (0.01) seems to be lower, respective of other countries. Based on the official counts for confirmed cases, the simulations suggest that the cumulative number of active infected follows an exponential trend. The mean reproduction number 2.25 (95% CI: 1.90-2.40) and transmission trends clearly indicates the outbreak of COVID-19 in Bangladesh. There is now breakneck concern regarding the capacity to respond to needs of infected patients effectively and to prevent this pandemic from further spreading in Bangladesh, one of the densest countries in the world.
Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3
Figure 4
Figure 5
Figure 6
Figure 7
Figure 8
Figure 9
Figure 10
Figure 11
Due to technical limitations, full-text HTML conversion of this manuscript could not be completed. However, the manuscript can be downloaded and accessed as a PDF.