Baseline characteristics of study participants
After the exclusion of 133,747 individuals according to the exclusion criteria, 368,634 patients were included in the analysis (Fig. 1). We grouped the study participants according to CCR tertiles. The baseline characteristics of the study participants were shown in Table 1. Participants were also grouped according to whether they had MAFLD or not, and 139,002 participants had a diagnosis of MAFLD at baseline (Supplementary Table 1). The median patient age was 58 years, and the level of CCR gradually decreased with growth. Most participants were females. There were noticeable differences in clinical and anthropometric characteristics according to the grouping of CCR: participants with low CCR had higher levels of BMI, HbA1c, HDL, LDL, triglyceride, and cholesterol whereas the WC, aspartate aminotransferase (AST), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT), and albumin (ALB) levels were lower. Patients with a lower CCR had a worse metabolic status.
Table 1
Characteristics of study participants according to the CCR tertiles
// | Total n = 368634 | CCR tertile 1 n = 121649 | CCR tertile 2 n = 121652 | CCR tertile 3 n = 125333 | P |
Age | 58 (50, 63) | 60 (54, 65) | 58 (50, 63) | 54 (47, 61) | < 0.001 |
Sex | | | | | < 0.001 |
Female | 198310 (54) | 100323 (82) | 66023 (54) | 31964 (26) | |
Male | 170324 (46) | 21326 (18) | 55629 (46) | 93369 (74) | |
Race | | | | | < 0.001 |
White | 350986 (95) | 115955 (95) | 116696 (96) | 118335 (94) | |
Asian-British | 7857 (2) | 3386 (3) | 2369 (2) | 2102 (2) | |
Black-British | 4680 (1) | 632 (1) | 1040 (1) | 3008 (2) | |
Mixed | 2051 (1) | 569 (0) | 645 (1) | 837 (1) | |
Other | 3060 (1) | 1107 (1) | 902 (1) | 1051 (1) | |
BMI (Kg/m2) | 26.74 (24.19, 29.8) | 27.33 (24.34, 31.15) | 26.54 (23.99, 29.58) | 26.49 (24.25, 29) | < 0.001 |
WC (cm) | 90 (81, 99) | 88 (79, 98) | 89 (79, 99) | 91 (83, 99) | < 0.001 |
Creatinine (umol/L) | 70.4 (61.5, 80.5) | 60.8 (55.1, 67.4) | 69.9 (63.2, 77.3) | 81.3 (73.6, 89.3) | < 0.001 |
Cystatin C (mg/L) | 0.88 (0.8, 0.98) | 0.93 (0.85, 1.03) | 0.88 (0.8, 0.97) | 0.85 (0.78, 0.93) | < 0.001 |
CCR | 79.45 (70.37, 89.32) | 66.67 (61.88, 70.27) | 79.27 (76.35, 82.26) | 93.6 (89.08, 100.24) | < 0.001 |
AST (U/L) | 24.3 (21, 28.7) | 23.8 (20.6, 28) | 24.1 (20.9, 28.4) | 25.1 (21.6, 29.5) | < 0.001 |
ALT (U/L) | 20.11 (15.44, 27.19) | 19.2 (14.95, 25.78) | 19.7 (15.13, 26.76) | 21.44 (16.36, 28.82) | < 0.001 |
GGT (U/L) | 26.3 (18.6, 40.5) | 25.1 (18.1, 39.2) | 25.6 (18.1, 39.7) | 28.1 (19.9, 42.3) | < 0.001 |
ALB (g/L) | 45.23 (43.54, 46.94) | 44.79 (43.12, 46.48) | 45.24 (43.58, 46.92) | 45.64 (43.97, 47.33) | < 0.001 |
T2DM | | | | | < 0.001 |
0 | 360043 (98) | 117935 (97) | 118998 (98) | 123110 (98) | |
1 | 8591 (2) | 3714 (3) | 2654 (2) | 2223 (2) | |
HbA1C (mmol/mol) | 35.2 (32.8, 37.8) | 35.9 (33.4, 38.5) | 35.1 (32.7, 37.6) | 34.6 (32.3, 37.1) | < 0.001 |
HDL (mmol/L) | 1.4 (1.18, 1.67) | 1.44 (1.21, 1.71) | 1.41 (1.18, 1.69) | 1.35 (1.15, 1.61) | < 0.001 |
LDL (mmol/L) | 3.55 (2.99, 4.13) | 3.64 (3.06, 4.24) | 3.52 (2.97, 4.1) | 3.48 (2.94, 4.05) | < 0.001 |
TG (mg/dL) | 131.49 (93.5, 188.69) | 137.69 (99.26, 193.47) | 127.59 (90.94, 184.09) | 129.01 (90.67, 188.16) | < 0.001 |
CHOL (mmol/L) | 5.68 (4.95, 6.43) | 5.84 (5.09, 6.61) | 5.66 (4.94, 6.39) | 5.54 (4.86, 6.27) | < 0.001 |
Continuous variables were presented as median (Q1, Q3). Categorical variables were presented as n (%). BMI, body mass index; WC, waist circumference; CCR, creatinine-to-cystatin C ratio; AST, aspartate aminotransferase; ALT, alanine aminotransferase; GGT, gamma-glutamyl transferase; ALB, albumin; HbA1c, hemoglobin A1c; HDL, high-density lipoprotein; LDL, low-density lipoprotein; TG, triacylglycerol; CHOL, cholesterol. |
Association between CCR and MAFLD
In the univariate logistic regression analysis, older age; male sex; Black; T2DM; and higher BMI, WC, HbA1c, LDL, TG and cholesterol were significantly associated with MAFLD. Asian population and higher HDL levels were protective factors against MAFLD (Supplementary Table 2). The risks of CCR tertile 2 and CCR tertile1 were 0.925 (95%CI 0.91–0.94, P < 0.001) and 1.075 (95%CI 1.058–1.093, P < 0.001) compared with CCR-tertile 3. After adjusting with covariates, the risk of MAFLD in CCR tertile 1 (OR 1.333, 95%CI 1.273–1.396, P < 0.001) was significantly higher than that in people with higher CCR (OR 1.075, 95%CI 1.035–1.117, P < 0.001) (Table 2). Subgroup analysis stratified by sex, showed that people in CCR tertile1 still had the highest risk of MAFLD, and that the risk in females was higher than that in males (OR 1.395, 95% CI 1.290–1.510, P < 0.001 vs OR 1.355, 95% CI 1.265–1.452, P < 0.001) (Table 2).
Table 2
Logistic regression analysis for the association between CCR and MAFLD
| Unadjusted | | Model 1 | | Model 2 | | Model 3 | | Model 4 |
| OR | 95%CI | P | | OR | 95%CI | P | | OR | 95%CI | P | | OR | 95%CI | P | | OR | 95%CI | P |
Total 1 | | | | | | | | | |
CCR tertile 3 | Reference | | Reference | | Reference | | Reference | | Reference |
CCR tertile 2 | 0.925 | 0.91–0.94 | < 0.001 | | 1.459 | 1.432–1.485 | < 0.001 | | 1.420 | 1.394–1.447 | < 0.001 | | 1.309 | 1.281–1.337 | < 0.001 | | 1.075 | 1.035–1.117 | < 0.001 |
CCR tertile 1 | 1.075 | 1.058–1.093 | < 0.001 | | 2.878 | 2.817–2.94 | < 0.001 | | 2.650 | 2.593–2.709 | < 0.001 | | 2.001 | 1.952–2.052 | < 0.001 | | 1.333 | 1.273–1.396 | < 0.001 |
Male | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
CCR tertile 3 | | Reference | | | | Reference | | | | Reference | | | | Reference | | | | Reference | |
CCR tertile 2 | 1.489 | 1.458–1.521 | < 0.001 | | 1.481 | 1.449–1.513 | < 0.001 | | 1.438 | 1.407–1.470 | < 0.001 | | 1.284 | 1.252–1.317 | < 0.001 | | 1.085 | 1.037–1.134 | < 0.001 |
CCR tertile 1 | 2.039 | 1.977–2.102 | < 0.001 | | 2.030 | 1.967–2.095 | < 0.001 | | 1.868 | 1.809–1.928 | < 0.001 | | 1.530 | 1.474–1.589 | < 0.001 | | 1.355 | 1.265–1.452 | < 0.001 |
Female | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
CCR tertile 3 | | Reference | | | | Reference | | | | Reference | | | | Reference | | | | Reference | |
CCR tertile 2 | 1.710 | 1.644–1.778 | < 0.001 | | 1.735 | 1.667–1.806 | < 0.001 | | 1.716 | 1.647–1.787 | < 0.001 | | 1.562 | 1.493–1.633 | < 0.001 | | 1.188 | 1.095–1.289 | < 0.001 |
CCR tertile 1 | 3.907 | 3.767–4.052 | < 0.001 | | 3.903 | 3.758–4.055 | < 0.001 | | 3.645 | 3.506–3.789 | < 0.001 | | 2.702 | 2.588–2.820 | < 0.001 | | 1.395 | 1.290–1.510 | < 0.001 |
Model 1 adjusted for age, sex1 and race. |
Model 2 adjusted for age, sex1, race, DMT2 and HbA1C. |
Model 3 adjusted for age, sex1, race, DMT2, HbA1C, HDL, LDL, TG and cholesterol. |
Model 4 adjusted for age, sex1, race, DMT2, HbA1C, HDL, LDL, TG, cholesterol, BMI and WC. |
Association between CCR and the incidence of MAFLD in the prospective cohort
This prospective cohort included 8724 participants. The cohort was followed for a median 4.5 years (interquartile range, 3.7 to 5.0 years), and 1,077 participants (12.3%) developed MAFLD during this period. The risk of subsequent MAFLD was significantly higher in participants with a lower CCR than in those with a higher CCR (OR 1.212, 95%CI 1.015–1.447, P = 0.034; OR 1.340, 95%CI 1.077–1.669, P = 0.009). The association was more significant in males (OR 1.308, 95%CI 1.060–1.615, P = 0.012); vs (OR 1.642, 95%CI 1.158–2.329, P = 0.005) (Fig. 2A, Supplementary Table 3).
Association between CCR and MAFLD-related outcomes
To explore the effect of CCR on MAFLD severity, we analyzed the association between CCR and severe liver fibrosis. CCR was significantly associated with the risk of severe liver fibrosis in males, but not in females. Compared to males with low CCR levels, the risks of severe liver fibrosis in males with high CCR level were 1.139 (95%CI 1.030–1.260, P = 0.011) and 1.657 (95%CI 1.476–1.859, P < 0.001), respectively (Fig. 2B, Supplementary Table 4).
1083 of 139,002 MAFLD patients developed SLD during follow-up, with a median follow-up time of 9.19 years, interquartile range of 6.29 years and 10.83 years. Cox analysis showed that participants in CCR tertile 1 had the highest risk of MAFLD-related SLD (HR 4.23, 95%CI 3.54–4.05, P < 0.001) (Table 3), and the SLD cumulative incidence during follow-up was obviously higher than others (Fig. 3).
Table 3
Prospective Cox regression analysis of the relationship between CCR and SLD
| Unadjusted | | Model 1 | | Model 2 | | Model 3 | | Model 4 |
| HR | 95%CI | P | | HR | 95%CI | P | | HR | 95%CI | P | | HR | 95%CI | P | | HR | 95%CI | P |
Total 1 | | | | | | | | | |
CCR tertile 3 | Reference | | Reference | | Reference | | Reference | | Reference |
CCR tertile 2 | 1.91 | 1.61–2.26 | < 0.001 | | 1.92 | 1.62–2.28 | < 0.001 | | 1.86 | 1.57–2.21 | < 0.001 | | 1.90 | 1.60–2.25 | < 0.001 | | 1.75 | 1.47–2.09 | < 0.001 |
CCR tertile 1 | 4.08 | 3.49–4.76 | < 0.001 | | 5.41 | 4.55–6.43 | < 0.001 | | 4.84 | 4.07–5.76 | < 0.001 | | 4.90 | 4.11–5.83 | < 0.001 | | 4.23 | 3.54–5.05 | < 0.001 |
Male | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
CCR tertile 3 | Reference | | Reference | | Reference | | Reference | | Reference |
CCR tertile 2 | 2.20 | 1.84–2.63 | < 0.001 | | 1.97 | 1.65–2.36 | < 0.001 | | 1.93 | 1.61–2.30 | < 0.001 | | 1.99 | 1.66–2.39 | < 0.001 | | 1.85 | 1.54–2.22 | < 0.001 |
CCR tertile 1 | 6.78 | 5.67–8.10 | < 0.001 | | 5.73 | 4.78–6.87 | < 0.001 | | 5.18 | 4.31–6.22 | < 0.001 | | 5.31 | 4.42–6.38 | < 0.001 | | 4.56 | 3.77–5.50 | < 0.001 |
Female | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
CCR tertile 3 | Reference | | Reference | | Reference | | Reference | | Reference |
CCR tertile 2 | 1.26 | 0.64–2.45 | 0.504 | | 1.10 | 0.56–2.14 | 0.789 | | 1.08 | 0.55–2.11 | 0.818 | | 1.12 | 0.57–2.19 | 0.741 | | 1.11 | 0.57–2.17 | 0.766 |
CCR tertile 1 | 3.83 | 2.10-7.00 | < 0.001 | | 2.83 | 1.54–5.20 | 0.001 | | 2.56 | 1.39–4.70 | 0.002 | | 2.69 | 1.46–4.95 | 0.001 | | 2.53 | 1.37–4.66 | 0.003 |
Model 1 adjusted for age, sex 1 and race. |
Model 2 adjusted for age, sex 1, race, DMT2 and HbA1C. |
Model 3 adjusted for age, sex 1, race, DMT2, HbA1C, HDL, LDL, TG and cholesterol. |
Model 4 adjusted for age, sex 1, race, DMT2, HbA1C, HDL, LDL, TG, cholesterol, BMI and WC. |