3.1 Patient characteristics
This study excluded 649 out of the 1606 participants who had hip fractures between May 2018 and December 2022 for the following reasons: 20 patients did not meet the inclusion and exclusion criteria, 399 patients did not undergo postoperative lower extremity venous ultrasound, and 230 patients had DVT before surgery without postoperative progression. Finally, 957 patients met the inclusion criteria and were enrolled in the study.
Table 1 shows a comparison of population characteristics between the excluded population (629 cases) and the study population. No statistically significant differences were observed between the two groups regarding general characteristics, underlying diseases, complications, or anticoagulation therapy (p > 0.05), indicating an absence of distribution bias between the two groups.
The average age of the 957 patients in this study was 67.8 ± 19.1 years. Among them, 402 were men and 555 women. Overall, 284 patients developed postoperative thrombosis, resulting in an approximate incidence of DVT of 29.68%. Additionally, eight patients (0.84%) developed pulmonary embolism. Before surgery, there were 324 patients (33.9%) without anemia and 633 patients (60.1%) with preoperative anemia, including 61 patients (18.83%) with no anemia who developed DVT after surgery, and 223 patients (35.23%) with anemia and developed DVT after surgery. In the anemia group, the cases of thrombosis of mild anemia, 30%≤HCT<33%, 27≤HCT<30%, and HCT<27% were 65(29.15%), 50(22.42%), 50(22.42%) and 58(26.01%), respectively. Among the 399 patients excluded in the final study who did not undergo ultrasonography after surgery, 179 (44.9%) were not anemic before surgery, while 220 (55.1%) were anemic before surgery.
3.2 Univariate analysis
Univariate analysis results (Table 2) indicate that several factors showed statistically significant differences between the DVT group and the non-DVT group (p < 0.1). These factors include age, preoperative pulmonary infection, hypoalbuminemia, anemia degree, ASA grade, time from injury to surgery greater than 1 week, a total length of stay greater than 14 days, operation time greater than 2 h, open fracture, multiple fractures, comminuted fractures, multiple injuries, post-traumatic shock, preoperative use of iron sucrose, preoperative anticoagulation, postoperative anticoagulation start time greater than 24 h, percentage of lymphocytes, distribution width of red blood cells, preoperative C-reactive protein, preoperative fibrin degradation products, and preoperative D-dimer.
3.3 Multivariate analysis between preoperative anemia severity and postoperative DVT
The results of multivariate analysis (Table 3) revealed several independent risk factors for postoperative DVT. These factors included age older than 65 years (OR:2.761, 95%CI[1.673–4.557], p < 0.001), a total length of hospital stay longer than 14 days (OR:1.683, 95%CI[1.175–2.410], p = 0.005), preoperative anticoagulation (OR:1.608, 95%CI[1.099–2.352], p = 0.015), postoperative anticoagulation for more than 24 h (OR:1.865, 95%CI[1.221–2.848], p = 0.004), preoperative HCT ranging 33–30% and perioperative blood transfusion (OR:3.052, 95%CI[1.603-5.881], p = 0.001), and preoperative HCT <27% and blood transfusion (OR:2.979, 95%CI[1.574–5.639], p = 0.001).
In patients without transfusion (Figure 2), the OR increased as the HCT level decreased: mild anemia (OR 1.369, 95%CI [0.839-2.236], p = 0.209), 30%≤HCT<33% (OR 1.742, 95%CI [0.913–3.324], p = 0.092), 27≤HCT< 30% (OR 2.056, 95% CI [0.948–4.461], p = 0.068), and HCT< 27% (OR 3.373, 95% CI [0.951–11.964], p = 0.06). However, this trend was not observed in transfusion patients: no anemia (intraoperative and postoperative blood transfusion) (OR 2.090, 95% CI [0.811–5.386], p = 0.127), mild anemia (OR 1.520, 95% CI [0.760–3.038], p = 0.236), 30%≤ HCT < 33% (OR:3.052, 95% CI [1.603–5.881], p = 0.001), 27 ≤HCT< 30% (OR 1.847, 95% CI [0.990–3.447], p = 0.054), and HCT< 27% (OR:2.979, 95%CI [1.574–5.639], p = 0.001).
3.4 ROC curves and curve fitting
The ROC curves (Figures 3 and 4) show the sensitivity and specificity of preoperative HCT in predicting postoperative DVT occurrence and postoperative moderate-to-severe anemia in patients with bone trauma. Under the maximum Youden index, the optimal preoperative HCT cut-off values for predicting postoperative DVT were determined to be 35.15% for males and 33.45% for females. These values were associated with an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.670 (95%CI [0.611–0.7 28], p<0.001, sensitivity =64.6%, specificity =61.2%) and 0.637 (95%CI [0.586–0.687], p<0.001, sensitivity =63.7%, specificity =60.2%), respectively. Additionally, for predicting moderate and severe anemia 1 day after surgery, the preoperative anemia thresholds were determined to be 36.35% (AUC=0.875, 95%CI [0.836-0.914], p<0.001) in males and 35.85% (AUC=0.853, 95%CI [0.812-0.895], p<0.001) in female. The corresponding sensitivity and specificity were 72.4% and 93.1% in males and 77.0% and 82.3% in females, respectively. Furthermore, Figure 5 displays a curve fit demonstrating the association between preoperative and postoperative DVT occurrence. The smooth curve fitting plots indicate an overall increase in the occurrence of postoperative DVT with decreasing HCT.