Exploring mangrove adaptability in Laguna de Términos: implications for biological conservation through ecological measures and GIS-based protection zones (Campeche, Mexico)

doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-3145253/v1

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Exploring mangrove adaptability in Laguna de Términos: implications for biological conservation through ecological measures and GIS-based protection zones (Campeche, Mexico)

https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-3145253/v1

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To safeguard the ecosystems and species in megadiverse countries such as Mexico, ecological measures are imperative. This study examined the adaptability of mangroves to environmental and anthropogenic changes. As this area comprises a multitude of ecologically consequential abiotic gradients, it represents a valuable resource for understanding the ramifications of worldwide climate change. Nevertheless, gauging the coastal biodiversity in the Gulf of Mexico presents a formidable challenge. The primary aim of this research was to evaluate the factors that contribute to the ongoing chronic changes within and around mangroves. By analyzing satellite images from 1981 to 2020, we investigated the decadal variations in mangrove coverage across the Yucatán Peninsula in the western Caribbean Sea. The research area obtained a high ecological index score of 0.71, indicating its considerable natural value. Moreover, an anthropogenic index score of 0.46 was observed on the map, indicating the impact of human activities on the area. To connect and preserve biodiversity in the area, we proposed a GIS-based spatial biological corridor technique (protection zones). Urgent action is necessary to promote better forest management and restoration that can provide opportunities for climate change adaptation for mangrove and neighboring ecosystems.

biological corridors

mangrove forest

subtropical regions

spatial analysis

land protection

Urgent protection and restoration measures needed to preserve Mexico's megadiverse ecosystems, including mangroves with their adaptability to environmental changes and ecologically significant abiotic gradients. Proposed protection zones aim to connect and preserve biodiversity, emphasizing the importance of better forest management.

A number of terrestrial ecosystems, including mangrove forests, flourish in tropical and subtropical saline coastal environments, providing ecologically and socially valuable goods and services. Mangrove forests are found on sheltered coastlines in tropical, subtropical, and warmer temperate regions, as well as in the Mediterranean and Caribbean (Harishidayat et al. 2022). Deliberations on changes in the historical use of mangrove vegetation are prominent (Friess et al. 2012). These ecosystems provide valuable services that should be available to future generations. Mangrove forests are highly productive, providing habitat for fish and wildlife, improving water quality, serving as a source of seafood, reducing coastal erosion, and providing forest products. Additionally, they offer essential ecosystem services to the local population, sustaining coastal food webs, minimizing the effects of flooding, and supporting high levels of carbon and nutrient sequestration (Allgeier et al. 2010)

Mangrove forests are an excellent candidate for landscape modeling owing to their undeniable conservation value and easily distinguishable patch boundaries. Despite their global distribution, the degree of fragmentation and disappearance varies geographically. Certain regions, like Cambodia and the southern Caribbean, have experienced relatively minimal losses. However, the destruction of their natural habitats has resulted in extensive degradation of these vital ecosystems in other regions. The greatest specific richness is found in the extensive coastal lagoons of southern Veracruz, Tabasco and Campeche, areas with high rainfall and temperatures never less than 14 °C, which correspond to the study area (Chi-Espínola 2022). In Veracruz, the mangroves represent a coastal corridor belong to lagoon and estuarine systems. Priority sites with biological relevance and ecological rehabilitation need for the development of conservation programs according to the National Commission for Knowledge and Use of Biodiversity (Granados et al. 2019). Over the period 1986-2016, there has been a loss of 86% of mangroves, associated with the increase in human settlements in the lower basin of the Coatzacoalcos River, Veracruz (Cuevas 2020).

Human settlements, clearings and fills, livestock, and industrial sites were the actions that most affected the environmental components, with affectation percentages of 15.9%, 15.7%, 15.5%, and 13.5%, respectively. The most affected environmental components were the soil, flora, and water, with affectation percentages of 17%, 17%, and 16%, respectively. Human impact is the primary cause of mangrove loss in the lower Coatzacoalcos River basin, particularly due to irregular settlements in the region. Additionally, these actions have significantly impacted tourist activities (Adame et al. 2020).

Mexico is presently engaged in the "Mangrove Restoration as a Nature-based Solution in Biosphere Reserves in Latin America and the Caribbean" (MangRes Project), which is an initiative launched by UNESCO with the financial backing of the Government of Flanders of the Kingdom of Belgium and the Organization Autonomous National Parks of Spain. This project aims to evaluate the current condition of mangrove ecosystems and encourage the development of conservation and restoration strategies based on scientific evidence and local knowledge of the communities. To determine the relationship between habitat loss, fragmentation, and global estimates of the mangrove area change, a multiscale analysis was undertaken. These forests provide unique biodiversity and numerous benefits to coastal communities. Nevertheless, as a consequence of large-scale conversion to aquaculture, agriculture, and urbanization, mangroves are now considered a vulnerable ecosystem that is increasingly threatened by climate change. The existence of mangrove areas is of critical importance to Mexico, as they contribute significantly to the country's biodiversity. Spatial and temporal changes in the fragmentation patterns of mangrove were measured to identify bioclimatic corridor indices using climatic and spatial parameters, calculate ecological indices for mangrove sites based on remote sensing data, and assess the historical changes in mangrove cover under the influence of anthropogenic pressure. The measurement of biodiversity in the region is based on the coexistence of ecosystems and species with high levels of diversity. To understand the spatial and temporal changes in fragmentation patterns of mangroves, measurements were conducted. As a result, the following research objectives were established:

(a) To assess the historical changes in mangrove cover under the influence of anthropogenic pressure;

(b) To demonstrate the bioclimatic corridor index by utilizing spatial and climatic parameters;

(d) To indicate the urgent need for a conservation system to protect the mangrove patches in the study area.

These research objectives were identified based on the quantified changes in fragmentation patterns, which are pivotal for formulating effective conservation and restoration strategies in order to mitigate the detrimental impacts of habitat fragmentation on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning.

Study area

The study area's location is indicated on a map of mangrove habitats in Mexico (Fig. 1). The region is characterized by humid and semi-humid climates, with altitudes ranging from sea level to 199 meters above it.

The mangrove district in the state of Campeche was analyzed using land cover data downloaded from the Portal de Geoinformacion (Sistema Nacional de Informacion sobre Biodiversidad), as shown in Fig. 2. Vector format data was processed to delineate the vegetation boundaries, illustrated in Fig. 3.

The location of the mangroves and land cover was identified through aerial photography, utilizing panoramic photos obtained during helicopter flights as reference points. A total of 33,552 panoramic photos were used to produce the spatial distribution map.

The aerial photos were assigned geographic coordinates by overlaying them on a 1:1 scale. Geographic coordinates were obtained from the recorded aerial photos, which were then converted from image format to tabular format and subsequently to shapefile format. To determine the attributes of the selected points, data was collected from the Geoportal website and downloaded from the CONABIO database. The study area is characterized by humid and semi-humid climates, and the land features a variety of soil types, primarily dominated by gleysoil with poor drainage and significant peat development on the surface (refer to Fig. A1). The geological map primarily consists of Tertiary and Quaternary formations (refer to Fig. 2A).

Ecological and anthropogenic indices

To derive the ecological index for the municipalities, a modelling approach was employed (Fig. 4). The modelling process involved the integration of various environmental and ecological parameters, such as land cover, soil type, topography, and climatic conditions. These parameters were analyzed using a spatial analysis tool and assigned values based on their relative contribution to the overall ecological health of the area. The resulting index provides a quantitative measure of the ecological status of the municipalities, which can be used to guide management and conservation efforts

The primary data source for this study was CONABIO, which provided data at a scale of 1:250,000 in both KML and shapefile formats that were processed for analysis. The spatial database was organized by municipality, with features and attributes included. The ecological indicator was calculated using theoretical relationships between variables such as: human influence, trophic structure, and ecosystem stability. The resulting data were presented by Mexico's administrative units and were normalized on a scale from 0 (indicating high anthropogenic pressure) to 1 (indicating low human impact).

The studied area is protected by Biological Corridors, which are established as a conservation system. To assess the impact of human-induced changes on terrestrial biodiversity in Mexico, an index of human impact was derived based on the theoretical framework of the Global Biodiversity Model (GLOBIO3). Developed by Alkemade et al. in 2009, the GLOBIO3 model evaluates temporal changes in the conservation status and establishes cause-and-effect relationships between various pressures and threat factors based on information from the scientific literature. The model considers land use, infrastructure, fragmentation, climate change, and nitrogen deposition as the main pressures and threat factors. In Mexico, the model was adjusted with a resolution of one square kilometer and included land use, road infrastructure, and fragmentation as pressures and threat factors, using data from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI). The impacts related to land use categories such as cultivated grassland and primary scrub were also adjusted. The index estimates the impacts on biodiversity, ranging from 0 to 1, where 0 indicates no impact due to human pressure and threat factors, and 1 indicates maximum impact (Fig. 5).

Creation of the bioclimatic corridor index

Climatic variables such as temperature and humidity were integrated to mitigate extreme deviations in the studied area. We identified ecological corridors with varying degrees of continuous primary vegetation, focusing on southwestern Mexico. A detailed analysis of the selected area was conducted, taking into account the possible constraints of large shifts in climatic gradients on organisms' mobility and dispersion. Data was obtained from Comisión Nacional para el Conocimiento y Uso de la Biodiversidad (CONABIO) under the CC BY-NC 2.5 MX license. To calculate the bioclimatic corridor (Sarukhán and Jiménez 2016), we determined the climatic gradient (change in climatic variable per unit distance), human influence, and Euclidean distance between fragments of native vegetation in their original state of preservation, which apparently had a lower degree of influence or deterioration. The connectivity corridor also included human influence as an anthropogenic indicator and evapotranspiration in the recent period (Fig. 7).

We identified fragments of primary native vegetation larger than 1000 ha in the most recent state of preservation (McGuire et al., 2016) and recognized corridors from these fragments. We calculated the latest annual average actual evapotranspiration using a database of temperature and precipitation from 1980–2009 (Cuervo-Robayo et al. 2014). All data was processed in raster format with a pixel size of 1 x 1 km. The values ranged from − 1 to 200, where − 1 corresponded to the primary vegetation fragment, 0 represented the optimal conditions within the corridor with less climatic variability and human influence, and a value close to 200 represented the most threatened areas on the fringes of the corridor.

Areas for biological conservation

The information contained in this map can be compared over time with maps from 1981, 2005, 2010, and 2015, which are also publicly available. The index of connectivity, specifically relative connectivity, of Campeche mangroves in 2020 was calculated using the Conefor program (version 2.2 released under the GNU GPL). This program quantifies the importance of habitat areas and linkages for maintaining or improving connectivity and assesses the impact of habitat and landscape changes on connectivity. The information provided by this analysis can be used as a tool to analyze spatial ecology and support conservation planning decisions, such as restoration efforts, by identifying and prioritizing critical sites for mangrove connectivity.

The map identifies mangrove sites of biological importance and ecological restoration needs at the national level, as identified by CONABIO (Conabio 2022). The identification of these mangrove sites was based on the results of the "Second Consultation Workshop on the Mangrove Monitoring Programme in Mexico" held in September 2007 and the "Consultation Meeting on the Identification of Biologically Important Mangrove Sites and Sites in Need of Ecological Restoration in the Region of the Yucatán Peninsula and the State of Tamaulipas" held in September 2008. Biologically important mangroves and core zones were identified and prioritized on the map.

Satellite imaging of mangroves

The study site corresponds to the Southeastern region of Mexico, which includes the states of Veracruz, Tabasco, and Campeche. The mangrove forest neighborhoods were divided into three zones. The study found a low proportion of buffer zones in the study area (Figure A4). The results showed a high turnover of land cover, with approximately half of the mangroves being affected by land cover changes. The net changes in mangrove area were estimated to be -0.34% per year. Over the last 40 years, there has been a gradual decline in mangrove area throughout the state, as shown in Table 1.

Table 1

The mangrove cover changes in the state of Campeche on the Yucatán peninsula.
Year	Area of original forest patch	Growth in relation to the base year	Percentage of change
	ha	ha	%
1981	216.969	-	-
2005	199.662	-17.307	-7.98
2010	197.623	-19.346	-8.92
2015	198.853	-18.116	-8.35
2020	200.279	-16.690	-7.69
Source: own elaborations based on CONABIO 2022

The information provided appears to be about the status and changes in mangrove coverage in Mexico, particularly in the South Eastern region. It mentions the national surveying system for mangroves in Mexico, which indicates a loss trend in mangrove coverage from 1981 to 2010, but a recovery trend since 2015. The study area was divided into three zones, and it was found that there was a high turnover of land cover with a net loss of mangroves of 8.92% from 1981 to 2010. However, mangroves have been recovering since 2015, with a net gain of 1.22% of the original area. The results of the study suggest that some fragmented forest in the area is suitable for an ecological corridor system, and the studied section should be included in the existing protection scheme. The study also suggests that the zone near the sea, with a large number of lakes, coastal systems and bays, may show conditions of high biodiversity preservation and should be protected. The GLOBIO3 model suggests that there is a low human impact on the biodiversity of the region, with a maximum anthropogenic index of 0.7, a minimum of 0.3 and an average of 0.46. However, mangroves with high anthropogenic pressure are those in regions close to the energy industry and other industrial activities in the study field, such as aquaculture farms and livestock industry. Finally, the change in mangrove forest cover was compared every 5 years to the 1981 reference year, and the output showed that the increase in their size was the largest in 2015 (Table 2).

Table 2

Coverage variability of mangroves in the study area
Year	Area of original forest patch	Growth in relation to the base year	Cumulative percentage change
	ha	ha	%
1981	85408.29	-	-
2005		+ 74.12	0.09
2010		+ 68.82	0.08
2015		+ 699.46	0.82
2020		+ 155.84	0.18

Source: own elaborations based on CONABIO 2022

We used an ecological index with values ranging from 0 to 1 to assess the biodiversity impacts of various pressures and threats in the study area. A value of 0 represents a low impact, while a score of 1 indicates the highest impact. The ecological index was calculated by considering factors such as habitat fragmentation, human disturbance, and land use change. According to Fig. 6, the mean ecological index for the study area was 0.71, which suggests that the area has high natural values and is less impacted by human activities.

Creation of a bioclimatic corridor index

This paper proposes connecting fragments of the mangrove to expand the protection area system, which has increased from 85,000 to 86,000 ha over the years. The connectivity index used in this study ranges from − 1 to 200, with − 1 representing the primary vegetation fragment and 0 indicating optimal conditions within the corridor. A score close to 200 is considered a threatened area, indicating fragmentation and loss of connectivity. Based on our findings, we recommend including this section of mangroves in the ecological system (Fig. 7).

The study results have clearly highlighted the importance of mangroves and their neighboring ecosystems in adapting to the challenges posed by climate change. It is imperative that we take immediate action to protect and restore these vital ecosystems to ensure their long-term sustainability. This can be achieved through a combination of effective management strategies and sustainable practices that promote biodiversity conservation and ecological resilience. In light of these findings, we propose the implementation of accurate and sustainable management practices that take into account the unique characteristics of the local ecosystems. This will involve close collaboration between stakeholders, including government agencies, local communities, and conservation organizations, to develop and implement effective management plans that prioritize the protection and restoration of mangroves and their neighboring ecosystems. By adopting a proactive and collaborative approach to ecosystem management, we can help ensure that these vital ecosystems continue to provide essential ecological services and support biodiversity conservation for generations to come. The proposed management strategies outlined in this study will serve as a valuable tool in achieving this goal, helping to guide decision-making processes and promote sustainable practices that support the long-term health and resilience of these important ecosystems (Fig. 7).

Ecological conservation of mangroves through satellite imaging

Land cover changes and fragmentation were quantified using remote sensing imagery consisting of a SPOT5 scenarios series. The results indicated a high turnover of land cover. Nearly half of the mangroves affected by land cover change between 2004 and 2014. Net changes in mangroves were found to average − 0.34% per year. Fragmentation remained about 35.4% of mangroves in part of interior "core" forests in Ngoc Hien (Hauser et al. 2017). In addition, land use can modified nutrient exports with negative impacts on adjacent seagrass meadows and coral reefs. This underscores the strong and persistent ecological and biogeochemical changes associated with mangrove conversion in tropical estuaries (Herbeck et al 2020).

Forest zones with different regulatory regimes play a significant role in shaping the changes in protection zones (Fig. 4A) around mangroves (Fig. 5A). Recent mangrove dynamics showed their resilient to anthropogenic pressures. Results from wetlands on China's southeast coast have exposed that mangroves with small sizes, large edge proportions, and regular boundary shapes tend to invade salt marshes (Zhang et al. 2021). Our results at the landscape scale underscore the urgent need for conservation and management efforts, to improve ecological connectivity (Fig. 6).

The study used Landsat images from 1989, 2000, and 2013 to classify mangrove cover in Ca Mau Province (Vietnam), which was verified with high-resolution Pleiades images. The study assessed the fragmentation of mangrove cover using a series of landscape metrics in relation to indicators of fish diversity (Simpson's index, Jaccard index, and relative abundance). The study found that over 24 years, the number of patches and density of mangroves increased by 58% and 53.9%, respectively, while fish diversity in the more fragmented areas was 1.78 times lower than in the less fragmented areas. The study demonstrated the feasibility of using Landsat satellite imagery to monitor mangrove fragmentation, and future research should focus on large-scale collaborations among the scientific community, NGOs, and government officials to better understand the impact of mangrove fragmentation (Worthington et al., 2020).

The results from the study showed that mangrove coverage in the part of Mexico studied had not changed from 1981 to 2005, and the relationship between urbanization and the spatial configuration of mangrove habitats is not well understood. It is important to conduct an appropriate land cover study in conjunction with ecological classes of corridors to assess the structure of the coastal landscape and urbanization. The study conducted in Pakistan's Indus Delta, Sandspit, Sonmiani, Kalmat Khor, and Jiwani revealed the rate of change of mangrove coverage at the national scale using Landsat satellite imagery with a spatial resolution of 30 m. The study estimated that mangroves covered an area of 477.22 km2 in 1990, and due to planting and effective conservation practices, the study found a positive change in cover to an area of 1463.59 km2 in 2020, representing a 3.74% annual increase (Gilani et al., 2021). Few indices use biodiversity as a parameter to determine mangrove status, although environmental status at selected spatial scales and using diverse information resources exist. Our study found that the protection zone is appropriate to preserve the mangroves (Fig. A3).

The integration of biodiversity loss indicators resulted in a common score for evaluation, which can be helpful in designing and implementing mangrove ecosystem management plans. Accurately evaluating land cover dynamics in the West African region is urgently needed, including measuring the dynamics of land cover change, healthy and degraded land cover classes. According to Landsat data from L-band radar, there has been a net loss of mangroves (500 km2) in the Niger Delta region, while built-up areas have almost doubled (from 1990 km2 in 1988 to 3730 km2 in 2013) (Nababa et al. 2020). Our study provides valuable techniques for appraising land cover dynamics and accurately estimating fragmentation (Fig. 4). In recent years, mangroves have become consistently more fragmented. Removing shade from mangrove cover can change the thermal regime of the microclimate and other temperature-dependent parameters (Zabbey et al. 2021).

Impacts of Mangrove Forest Fragmentation on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Functioning

Less fragmented forests globally have lower mangrove loss rates. However, pressure and management responses' effectiveness on mangrove losses varied among countries (Turschwell et al. 2020). Higher population density was associated with higher mangrove loss in countries with low-quality regulations. Ecological corridor models can be applied to other globally threatened ecosystems to understand conservation outcomes. In Iskandar Malaysia, from 2000 to 2019, the total loss of mangrove area was estimated at 2907.29 hectares, with an annual loss rate of 1.12%. National regulatory status mediates the impact of stress and management on mangrove losses. Fragmented mangrove patches showed an increase in GPP, which may be due to their edge effects (Kanniah et al. 2021). The type, size, edge complexity, and shape of patches affect the fragmentation effect. Mangrove loss is caused by urban development, crop plantations, and aquaculture (Fig. 2). Developing solutions that address differences in pressure effects and cumulative impacts based on the national context will protect mangroves (Fig. 4A).

The study found that mangrove forests experienced significant decline between 1977 and 1991 due to deforestation from development programs, particularly shrimp farming. However, from 1991 to 2010, mangrove extent increased due to afforestation and conservation efforts. The fragmentation model showed a strong correlation with observed changes in non-modeled areas, and local biodiversity trends (primarily birds) were consistent with fragmentation patterns. The study also evaluated two decades of global mangrove deforestation data using a hierarchical Bayes model to measure changes over time and assess national regulatory quality standards' impact on mangrove loss (Hermansen et al. 2017).. Results indicated that protected zones had less fragmentation and associated loss, and cumulative impacts, population density, mangrove fragmentation, and management responses (e.g., protected areas) were linked to mangrove loss. The impact varied based on biodiversity levels. (Figs. 3 and 4).

Using landscape indicators to assess ecosystem health and sustainability

In the past 20 years, mangrove forest fragmentation has increased in the Canaanong-South Vietnam transition zone, likely due to human activities (Do et al. 2022).. Landscape indices were used to evaluate these changes and support the conservation of endangered plant species like Piñuelo rhizophorae and Piñuelo benthamii. Landscape metrics were used to compare the coastal structure and mangrove spatial configuration, revealing a higher proportion of artificial surfaces and urbanization intensity in the Caribbean basin, especially in Cartagena and Urabá (Blanco-Libreros and Ramírez-Ruiz 2021).

We present a methodology for assessing the impact of climate change over time and monitoring it using satellite imagery analysis of landscape pattern metrics to assess land cover conditions. For example, the results could be valuable for other regions. Vietnam, for instance, has experienced a fragmentation of mangrove forests in recent years. A significant cause of biodiversity loss and ecosystem service degradation is habitat loss and fragmentation caused by human activities (Seto and Fragkias 2007). Consequently, increased protected area goals can be achieved in areas with minimal human impact. These studies have shown significant variation in terms of landscape connectivity between ecoregions and continuity of the bioclimatic corridor (Fig. 6).

So far, satellite imagery has mainly been used for visualization and systematic monitoring. Protected areas are the primary response to this challenge and are the cornerstone of biodiversity conservation efforts. However, the world's species, ecosystems, and related services are in poorer condition than previously reported (Jacobson et al., 2019). China has lost 50% of its mangroves since the 1950s, and the remaining mangroves are increasingly fragmented. The 10-meter resolution mangrove maps from this study can help manage and protect China's mangroves, especially the small, fragmented mangrove patches scattered along the coast (Zhao and Qin, 2020). As a developing country, China's mangrove landscape pattern has undergone substantial temporal and spatial changes over the past four decades. However, little is known about changes in mangrove landscapes on a micro-scale. Analyzing shifts in the mangrove landscape from different perspectives at the national scale can provide scientific support for mangrove conservation and restoration. This study analyzed the temporal and spatial changes of mangrove landscape patterns in the last 40 years in China based on remote sensing data with high classification accuracy (99.3% as of 2018). After 2000, although the total area of mangroves recovered, the degree of fragmentation gradually increased (Zhang et al., 2021). Both the study area and the entire state of Campeche showed temporal and spatial changes in land cover over 40 years (Table 1). By 2020, little change was occurring in the area. The results of the anthropogenic map show that human impact is increasing (Fig. A3).

This study examines the variations in mangrove cover in two subtropical estuaries located on the southeast coast of Brazil. A systematic GIS approach was developed to identify and characterize mangrove fragments in estuaries using a sequence of Landsat images from 1985–2014. The study focuses on integrating different types of spatial information, including spectral (e.g., vegetation indices), spatial (e.g., fragmentation indices), and temporal (e.g., change detection) data at various scales. The proposed unified model for a hierarchical spatial database within a GIS framework can be used for other regions as well (Conti et al. 2016). Habitat destruction and fragmentation caused by natural and anthropogenic factors are contributing to severe reductions in mangrove biodiversity and ecosystem functioning worldwide (Paling et al. 2008). Therefore, even small fragments of mangroves should be protected to enhance functional and taxonomic coastal biodiversity. The study shows that the dynamics of mangrove areas are constantly changing, as demonstrated by the observed variations in mangrove areas due to natural and anthropogenic factors (Fig. 4). The study by Paling et al. (2008) quantified the change in mangrove area in the eastern part of Exmouth Bay over six years following Cyclone Vance, using Landsat TM satellite and aerial imagery. The results suggested that the majority of the loss was due to long-term consequences of sedimentation or fill, rather than direct wind or wave action. However, the cause and rate of loss and restoration remain largely unknown. In contrast to the displacement of other mangroves around the world, the mangrove forest on the Guangxi coast has been moving seaward, as the rate of change in sediment height on mangrove mud flats has exceeded the rate of change in relative sea level. However, landward migration has been prevented by human land cover (Jia et al. 2014). As the landscape becomes more fragmented due to habitat loss, individual patches become smaller and more isolated, making it less likely that a local population can be sustained (Jansen et al. 2008). The regions with the greatest habitat loss were not necessarily the regions with the greatest loss of metapopulation capacity. Huang et al. (2020) proposed several methods that managers can use to assess and prioritize landscapes for metapopulation sustainability

Mangrove forests serve as natural coastal buffer zones that absorb carbon dioxide and provide habitat for many terrestrial and aquatic organisms. Despite their importance, the total area covered by mangroves in the Arabian Gulf is not well known. Studies have shown that fragmented scattered mangroves are mostly found in intensively developed regions in the United Arab Emirates, where plantation crops have likely played a significant role in increasing their cover over the past few decades. Although mangroves in Kuwait are rare, areas such as Bahrain, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia have remained stable, with a slight increase in their original area. Iran's mangroves, on the other hand, appear to be declining over the years (Almahasheer et al. 2018).

In terms of global distribution, Asia has the largest share of mangroves, accounting for 38.7% of the global total. Latin America and the Caribbean have 20.3%, Africa 20.0%, Oceania 11.9%, North America 8.4%, and European Overseas Territories 0.7%. To assess changes in mangroves from 1996 to the present, the methodology developed primarily relies on the classification of ALOS PALSAR and Landsat sensor data. It also assesses the ecological value of ecosystems at different regional scales, including ecoregions, states, and municipalities (Fig. 5). The conservation status of Campeche is high, and there is a need to establish ecological corridors to protect the surrounding area. The study revealed changes in the mangrove forests, and the impact of human activities on natural vegetation degradation and land use changes were taken into account while developing the ecoclimatic corridor model. Therefore, protecting biodiversity in this part of Mexico can mitigate the effects of the aforementioned threats and pressures (Fig. 7). The region is well-preserved, and in the context of declining mangrove forests globally, it could serve as a crucial biodiversity reservoir.

The impact of widespread human activities on the resilience of estuarine habitats is still unknown, although hurricane-induced disturbance is a natural occurrence in mangroves. Plots with limited connectivity showed significantly lower densities of red mangrove (Rhizophora mangle) seedlings, suggesting that delays in forest restoration are possible in heavily impacted areas if either seed supply or seedling production is limited by habitat fragmentation (Milbrandt et al. 2006). Therefore, managing various factors of deforestation can increase or decrease fragmentation, and large-scale monitoring of mangroves should also take fragmentation into account (Table 1). Mexico has introduced legislation, such as the general climate change law and the energy transition process, which are of great importance to biodiversity conservation, in an effort to reduce the ecological footprint and protect Mexico's biodiversity. Mangrove forests are at risk of being converted to large-scale pond aquaculture, which threatens biodiversity and ecological functions (Flores-Cárdenas et al., 2018). The Conefor program can assess the importance of habitat areas and their linkages for maintaining or improving connectivity, which is critical for conservation planning (Nuñez et al., 2013). However, forest restoration remains low and reforestation is mostly passive due to reduced land use intensity in southern Mexico (Vaca et al., 2012). Several connectivity models identify areas that have been less modified by humans, enabling colonization by organisms (Revuelta-Acosta et al., 2022).

The findings of our study suggest that the studied mangrove ecosystem is relatively stable, thereby validating the appropriateness of our approach towards ensuring effective conservation and management. Consequently, we recommend the incorporation of this forest region within the protective boundaries of a well-designed biological corridor system. Habitat fragmentation is a critical contributor to ecosystem degradation, impairing the ability of ecosystems to provide essential services. The mangrove forest service, in particular, depends on the size and distribution of patches, but little is known about the overall scale of coastal fragmentation. However, with the emergence of GIS tools and other scientific advancements, it is now possible to create precise and comprehensive global datasets that capture the extent, structure, and health of mangroves. This information can be used to evaluate ecosystem services and promote greater conservation and restoration efforts.

While the impacts of global change drivers on mangroves can be complex and multifaceted, it is essential to implement strategies that use restoration and conservation to enhance the adaptive capacity of these vital ecosystems to the effects of climate change. Such measures will help minimize mangrove loss and support their expansion, contributing to the preservation of critical ecological services.

The present study sought to examine the impact of fragmentation on regional conservation priorities, particularly in developing countries' mangroves. This investigation holds significant value in elucidating the dynamics of these ecosystems. The implications of our findings for policies aimed at reducing deforestation and promoting forest cover growth are particularly noteworthy. Mangrove trees have the unique ability to reproduce and disperse widely, but their resistance and dispersal mechanisms can be disrupted by anthropogenic activities such as forest fragmentation and afforestation. Our investigation has revealed notable divergence in the forest boundaries of the Campeche state mangroves under scrutiny. Moreover, our bioclimatic index analysis established that these forests are ecologically well-suited. Based on satellite remote sensing data, we recommend the incorporation of portions of the mangroves into a conservation system in the form of biological corridors. Our findings, from a temporal and spatial perspective, have valuable implications for the management and protection of mangroves in this region of Mexico.

Author Contributions: Conceptualization: W.H.; V.E.H.; D.B. methodology: W.H. investigation: W.H. and D.B.; data curation: W.H.; D.B., N.A.L.H.; writing orginal text: W.H.; writing—review and editing: N.A.L.H.; visualization: W.H.; Supervision: V.E.H.

All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.

Funding: This research was financed by a subsidy by the Ministry of Education and Science of the Republic of Poland for the University of Agriculture in Krakow for 2023

Conflicts of Interest: The authors declare no conflict of interest.

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No competing interests reported.

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Exploring mangrove adaptability in Laguna de Términos: implications for biological conservation through ecological measures and GIS-based protection zones (Campeche, Mexico)

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Abstract

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Key Message

Introduction

Materials and Methods

Study area

Ecological and anthropogenic indices

Creation of the bioclimatic corridor index

Areas for biological conservation

Results

Satellite imaging of mangroves

Creation of a bioclimatic corridor index

Discussion

Ecological conservation of mangroves through satellite imaging

Impacts of Mangrove Forest Fragmentation on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Functioning

Using landscape indicators to assess ecosystem health and sustainability

Conclusions

Declarations

References

Additional Declarations

Supplementary Files

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