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Research Article
Human development, social vulnerability and COVID-19 in Brazil: A study of the social determinants of health
Carlos Dornels Freire de Souza
Universidade Federal de Alagoas
Corresponding Author
ORCiD: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7995-1893
License:
This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License. Read Full License
View the published version at Infectious Diseases of Poverty.
Background: COVID-19 was confirmed in Brazil in February 2020. Since then, the disease has spread throughout the country, reaching the poorest areas. This study analyzes the relationship between COVID-19 and the population’s living conditions. We aimed to identify social determinants related to the incidence, mortality, and case fatality rate of COVID-19 in Brazil, in 2020.
Methods: This is an ecological study evaluating the relationship between incidence, mortality, and case fatality rates and 49 social indicators of human development and social vulnerability. For the analysis, bivariate spatial correlation and multivariate and spatial regression models (spatial lag model and spatial error models) were used, considering a 95% confidence interval and a significance level of 5%.
Results: A total of 44.8% of municipalities registered confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 14.7% had deaths. We observed that 56.2% of municipalities with confirmed cases had very low human development (incidence: 59.00/100,000; mortality: 36.75/million), and 52.8% had very high vulnerability (incidence: 41.68/100,000; mortality: 27.46/million). The regression model showed 17 indicators associated with transmission of COVID-19 in Brazil.
Conclusions: Although COVID-19 first arrived in the most developed and least vulnerable municipalities in Brazil, it has already reached locations that are farther from large urban centers, whose populations are exposed to a context of intense social vulnerability. Based on these findings, it is necessary to adopt measures that take local social aspects into account in order to contain the pandemic.
Keywords
Coronavirus; Ecological Study; Human Development; Social Vulnerability; Sars-CoV-2.
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CURRENT STATUS: Published
Version 1
Posted 29 May, 2020
Published
On 31 Aug, 2020
No community comments so far
Review #3 received
Received 21 Jun, 2020
Reviewer #2 agreed
On 21 Jun, 2020
Reviewer #3 agreed
On 21 Jun, 2020
Review #2 received
Received 21 Jun, 2020
Review #1 received
Received 17 Jun, 2020
Reviewer #1 agreed
On 10 Jun, 2020
Reviewers invited
Invitations sent on 10 Jun, 2020
Editor assigned
On 02 Jun, 2020
Editor invited
On 01 Jun, 2020
Submission checks complete
On 26 May, 2020
First submitted
On 25 May, 2020
Version (no preprint)
Posted 29 May, 2020
Review #1 received
Received 02 Aug, 2020
Reviewer #1 agreed
On 28 Jul, 2020
Reviewers invited
Invitations sent on 25 Jul, 2020
Editor assigned
On 22 Jul, 2020
Submission checks complete
On 21 Jul, 2020
Editor invited
On 21 Jul, 2020
This version was not preprinted
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This preprint is under consideration at Infectious Diseases of Poverty. A preprint is a preliminary version of a manuscript that has not completed peer review at a journal. Research Square does not conduct peer review prior to posting preprints. The posting of a preprint on this server should not be interpreted as an endorsement of its validity or suitability for dissemination as established information or for guiding clinical practice.
Learn more about In Review
Research Article
Human development, social vulnerability and COVID-19 in Brazil: A study of the social determinants of health
Carlos Dornels Freire de Souza
Universidade Federal de Alagoas
Corresponding Author
ORCiD: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7995-1893
Badges
Prescreen
This manuscript passed our Prescreen assessment
Complete author information
Appropriate declaration statements
Potential risks to human health
Prescreen
Peer Review Timeline
CURRENT STATUS: Published
Version 1
Posted 29 May, 2020
Published
On 31 Aug, 2020
No community comments so far
Review #3 received
Received 21 Jun, 2020
Reviewer #2 agreed
On 21 Jun, 2020
Reviewer #3 agreed
On 21 Jun, 2020
Review #2 received
Received 21 Jun, 2020
Review #1 received
Received 17 Jun, 2020
Reviewer #1 agreed
On 10 Jun, 2020
Reviewers invited
Invitations sent on 10 Jun, 2020
Editor assigned
On 02 Jun, 2020
Editor invited
On 01 Jun, 2020
Submission checks complete
On 26 May, 2020
First submitted
On 25 May, 2020
Version (no preprint)
Posted 29 May, 2020
Review #1 received
Received 02 Aug, 2020
Reviewer #1 agreed
On 28 Jul, 2020
Reviewers invited
Invitations sent on 25 Jul, 2020
Editor assigned
On 22 Jul, 2020
Submission checks complete
On 21 Jul, 2020
Editor invited
On 21 Jul, 2020
This version was not preprinted
Metrics
Comments: 0
PDF Downloads: ...
HTML Views: ...
License:
This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License. Read Full License
View the published version at Infectious Diseases of Poverty.
Background: COVID-19 was confirmed in Brazil in February 2020. Since then, the disease has spread throughout the country, reaching the poorest areas. This study analyzes the relationship between COVID-19 and the population’s living conditions. We aimed to identify social determinants related to the incidence, mortality, and case fatality rate of COVID-19 in Brazil, in 2020.
Methods: This is an ecological study evaluating the relationship between incidence, mortality, and case fatality rates and 49 social indicators of human development and social vulnerability. For the analysis, bivariate spatial correlation and multivariate and spatial regression models (spatial lag model and spatial error models) were used, considering a 95% confidence interval and a significance level of 5%.
Results: A total of 44.8% of municipalities registered confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 14.7% had deaths. We observed that 56.2% of municipalities with confirmed cases had very low human development (incidence: 59.00/100,000; mortality: 36.75/million), and 52.8% had very high vulnerability (incidence: 41.68/100,000; mortality: 27.46/million). The regression model showed 17 indicators associated with transmission of COVID-19 in Brazil.
Conclusions: Although COVID-19 first arrived in the most developed and least vulnerable municipalities in Brazil, it has already reached locations that are farther from large urban centers, whose populations are exposed to a context of intense social vulnerability. Based on these findings, it is necessary to adopt measures that take local social aspects into account in order to contain the pandemic.