Global COVID-19 spread: socioeconomic determinants and lessons for future pandemics



This paper examines some factors that can complement public health systems in managing the spread of the COVID-19 with implications for preparedness towards possible future pandemics. It adapts and applies two suitable econometric models in the theoretical framework of social determinants of health. The one models are the Poisson’s Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) and the quantile estimator, applied to panel data for 195 countries over days of infection from first recorded case. The COVID-19-related data is from our world in data, and the socioeconomic variables are from the World Bank’s World Development indicators. The results suggest that enhancing capacity for early testing complemented by reduction of international exposure; improved management of population dynamics; ensuring better sanitation and hygiene practices and reducing alcohol use are key to addressing the rapid spread of the COVID-19, and readiness for future pandemics of similar a kind.

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