In general, the equivalent doses and ESR ages (Table 4) obtained with the SAAD and SAR protocols are not in agreement. The SAAD DRC in Fig. 9 present a large extrapolation that introduces more uncertainty at the time of the De calculation, especially when dealing with older samples that present natural intensities closer to the saturation point of the curve. This results in SAAD ages that, when compared to their SAR counterparts, are older and present a larger uncertainty. One of the advantages of the SAR protocol over the SAAD protocol is that for the SAR protocol, it is not necessary to extrapolate a large portion of the DRC to obtain the equivalent dose. Despite the difficulty to account for sensitivity changes during the annealing step when applying the SAR protocol, our results from the dose recovery in Fig. 10 test indicate that the curves are comparable, and therefore, the results from the protocol are reliable. Since the obtained thermal lifetime of the Al center for the analyzed sample is above 10 times the dating limit for the method (Aitken, 1985), we can assume thermal stability for dating samples of the last couple of million years.
Our results from the OSL dating show that the pIRIR225 signals in all samples are in saturation (Table 5, Fig. 12). In the case of the IR50 signals, the analyzed samples are close but below saturation. However, for older samples (i.e., close to saturation) the fading correction factor for the IR50 signal is larger than for the pIRIR225 signal (in Supplement 3), meaning that the corrected De are less reliable than those obtained for the pIRIR225 signal. In general, the saturated state of the signals could be the result of a large recurrence interval combined with only low-magnitude events that do not fully reset the system. Another possibility would be the complete lack of events during the effective datable time range of the method. Therefore, we consider the ages calculated from the pIRIR225 signal (Table 5) as the minimum ages of the events.
Due to the limitations of the SAAD protocol when dealing with old samples, we consider the ages obtained with the SAR protocol ages would to be more reliable than the SAAD ages. However, the shear heating was likely not sufficient to fully reset the system by the last earthquake (e.g., Fukuchi 1988), which may also be the case during lower-magnitude earthquakes. In that scenario, the ages would correspond only to the maximum age of the last large earthquake (Tsukamoto et al., 2020). A combined approach with OSL allows us to narrow down the temporal range of the events due to the lower saturation limit of the system compared to ESR (Fig. 13). When the OSL signals are in saturation, the method can be used to constrain a minimum age for the last seismogenic activity.
Overestimation in the ESR ages could be accounted for by applying the SAR protocol to measure the Al center signal in the different grain sizes or by comparing the ages from different centers. This has been proposed in the past as the multiple center and grain size plateau approaches (Fukuchi 1988; Schwarcz et al., 1987; Lee & Schwarcz 1994, Lee 1994). However, the signal from the Ti center in our samples is weak, and the centers such as E’ and OHC do not strongly depend on shear heating to be effectively reset compared to the Al center (Yang et al., 2019). In this case, the grain size plateau approach using the Al center could still be applied. Since we assume at least a partial reset of the system, establishing a temperature estimate for shear heating along the fault plane would provide additional evidence for seismic slip. A potential way to obtain such estimates is to observe the sensitivity changes in the OSL signal with increasing heating temperature (e.g., Rink et al., 1999; Spencer et al., 2012). Another possibility to obtain temperature estimates would be applying a Raman spectroscopy geothermometer for organic matter (e.g., Henry et al., 2019) on cataclasites and gouges from the fault zone.
In the case of the studied segment of the PAF, the obtained ages indicate that seismic slip occurred along the structure during the Quaternary with a maximum age ranging from 1075 ± 48 to 541 ± 28 ka (ESR SAR) and minimum ages in the range from 196 ± 12 to 281 ± 16 ka (pIRIR225). The individual ages are relatively congruent between localities along the fault (Fig. 14), and their differences could be attributed to different amounts of partial annealing of the system or differences in the timing of seismic slip. Nonetheless, our findings indicate that the easternmost segment of the PAF very likely has a longer seismic lifespan than previously indicated by the K-Ar ages from gouges obtained by Zwingmann & Mancktelow (2004) from Mauls, and Apatite (U-Th-Sm)/He cooling ages from In the Karawanken Mountains of c. 13 − 4 Ma which hint to fault activity of at least Late Miocene to Pliocene age (Heberer et al., 2017).
Considering most of the definitions of what makes a fault considered active, the narrowed-down period of seismic activity we obtained for this segment of the PAF implies that by some definitions the fault cannot be considered active. Our ages cannot account for Holocene displacement (Slemmons & McKinney, 1977), and although our minimum limit suggests activity younger than 0.5 Ma it is not possible to confirm how recurrent it was (U.S. National Regulatory Commission, 1997). However, there are four reasons why it could be considered at least potentially active. (1) The Eastern PAF is characterized by low seismicity and low deformation rates, similar to what usually occurs in intraplate settings. According to the definition of the International Atomic Energy Agency (2010), the seismically active period we dated for the structure fits within what could be considered active for such settings. (2) Earthquake ages obtained with trapped charged methods are generally overestimated even for active faults (e.g., Fukuchi et al., 1986; Buhay et al., 1988; Tsakalos et al., 2020), and do not necessarily reflect the last time of seismic slip. (3) The Eastern PAF is still geometrically compatible with the present-day stress regime (Fig. 3), implying the potential for future offset, which is one of the criteria to identify active faults defined by several authors (Willis & Wood, 1924; Slemmons & McKinney, 1977; U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, 1997). (4) Other structures under similar tectonic settings (i.e., low deformation rates and scarce to inexistent historical and instrumental seismicity records) have recently shown seismic activity (e.g., Provence region, France: Ritz et al., 2020; Thomas et al., 2020; Eastern US: Figueiredo et al., 2022), meaning that a long recurrence interval could hinder the interpretation of active and potentially active faults. Spooner et al. (2019) have shown that present-day seismicity in the Eastern Alps correlates with the thickness and the density of the crust. However, in the interior of the Alps strong historical earthquakes are documented (Stucchi et al., 2012), and additional pre-historical events have been identified in lake paleoseismology (Daxer et al., 2020, 2022a, b; Oswald et al., 2022) and cave studies (Baroň et al., 2022). These observations are in line with our findings–large earthquakes do occur in the interior of the mountain chain, but they are rare and our instrumental and historical records are too short to capture the whole picture of seismicity. In the regional tectonic context, an active PAF will likely accommodate a small fraction of the Adria-Europe convergence, probably with a component of right-lateral slip as during the period of Neogene lateral extrusion (Ratschbacher et al., 1991b).