Patient characteristics
We analyzed 66 patients with clinical stage II–III who were diagnosed with LARC before treatment. All patients underwent nCRT and received standard radical surgery (rectal resection with total mesorectal excision and lymphadenectomy). The detailed clinicopathological characteristics of these patients are provided in Table 1. The mean ADC values before and after nCRT were 1.46 (range: 0.76–1.99 × 10− 3 mm2/s) and 1.60 (range: 0.89–2.24 × 10− 3 mm2/s), respectively. In addition, alterations in ADC values between pre- and post-nCRT were observed (Fig. 1). The ADC values of 51 patients were increased, and those of 15 patients were decreased from pre-nCRT to post-nCRT. The tumor size, the clinical stage after nCRT, regimen, TRG, and LCR (lymphocyte to c-reactive protein ratio) were significantly associated with ADC values in alteration-nCRT.
The correlation of ADC values and TRG
Since the ADC values was associated with the tumor malignancy, we examined the correlation between TRG and ADC values. The alteration in ADC values between pre- and post-nCRT was correlated to the TRG with an area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.85 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.74–0.93, P < 0.01; Fig. 2C, D), compared with the ADC values pre-nCRT and post-nCRT (pre-nCRT; AUC = 0.54, 95% CI = 0.41–0.67, P = 0.57; Fig. 2A and post-nCRT; AUC = 0.79, 95% CI = 0.67–0.88, P < 0.01; Fig. 2B). We next determined the specific diagnostic performance of ADC alteration values for predicting TRG; the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were 91.7%, 66.7%, 76.7%, and 87.0%, respectively (Table 2). This highlights that the alterations in ADC values are superior for identifying TRG in patients with LARC.
Table 1. Clinicopathological characteristics according to the alteration of ADC value between pre- and post-nCRT
|
|
Alteration-nCRT
|
|
|
Factors
|
Down
(n=15)
|
Up
(n=51)
|
p
|
|
Age
|
|
|
|
|
(Median+SD)
|
68.7+3.2
|
65.7+1.3
|
0.31
|
|
Gender
|
|
|
|
|
Male
|
11
|
36
|
|
|
Female
|
4
|
15
|
0.84
|
|
Tumor size
|
|
|
|
|
(Median+SD)
|
39.0+6.4
|
24.1+2.4
|
0.04
|
|
Pre-nCRT Stage
|
|
|
|
|
II
|
5
|
19
|
|
|
IIIa
|
5
|
18
|
|
|
IIIb
|
5
|
14
|
0.86
|
|
Post-nCRT Stage
|
|
|
|
|
I
|
0
|
10
|
|
|
II
|
7
|
28
|
|
|
IIIa
|
3
|
11
|
|
|
IIIb
|
4
|
2
|
0.04
|
|
CEA level
|
|
|
|
|
≥5 ng/mL
|
3
|
2
|
|
|
<5 ng/mL
|
12
|
49
|
0.06
|
|
CA19-9 level
|
|
|
|
|
≥37 U/mL
|
4
|
5
|
|
|
<37 U/mL
|
11
|
46
|
0.11
|
|
Adjuvant therapy
|
|
|
|
|
Yes
|
6
|
9
|
|
|
No
|
8
|
42
|
0.06
|
|
NAC regimen
|
|
|
|
|
UFT
|
3
|
10
|
|
|
S-1
|
10
|
26
|
|
|
SOX+bev
|
2
|
15
|
0.02
|
|
TRG
|
|
|
|
|
0, 1
|
13
|
22
|
|
|
2, 3
|
2
|
29
|
0.01
|
|
LCR
|
|
|
|
|
(Median+SD)
|
6437+2204
|
11079+1331
|
0.04
|
|
NLR
|
|
|
|
|
(Median+SD)
|
7.9+2.4
|
4.1+0.6
|
0.09
|
|
PNI
|
|
|
|
|
(Median+SD)
|
38.5+2.6
|
42.7+0.9
|
0.27
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
ADC, apparent diffusion coefficient; CA19-9, carbohydrate antigen 19-9; CEA, carcinoembryonic antigen; LCR, lymphocyte to c-reactive protein ratio; nCRT, neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy; NAC, neoadjuvant chemotherapy; NLR, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio; PNI, prognostic nutritional index; SD, standard deviation: TRG, Tumor regression grade
Table 2
Performance of the model in estimating the risk of response
Variable
|
Value (95% CI)
|
Pre-nCRT
|
Post-nCRT
|
Alteration-nCRT
|
Sensitivity, %
|
88.9 (73.9–96.9)
|
72.2 (54.8–85.8)
|
91.7 (77.5–98.2)
|
Specificity, %
|
33.3 (17.3–52.8)
|
76.7 (57.7–90.1)
|
66.7 (47.2–82.7)
|
AUC, %
|
54.2 (41.4–66.5)
|
78.8 (67.0-87.9)
|
84.9 (73.9–92.5)
|
PPV, %
|
61.5 (54.8–67.9)
|
78.8 (65.3–88.0)
|
76.7 (66.3–84.7)
|
NPV, %
|
71.4 (46.6–87.8)
|
69.7 (56.7–80.1)
|
87.0 (68.7–95.3)
|
P value
|
0.57
|
< 0.01
|
< 0.01
|
AUC, area under the curve; CI, confidence interval; nCRT, neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy; NPV, negative predictive value; PPV, positive predictive value
ADC values exhibited prognostic potential to predict survival outcomes in patients with LARC
To evaluate the prognostic potential of ADC values, we performed survival analysis to compare OS and DFS in patients who underwent nCRT and radical surgery. There were no significant differences in survival outcomes between patients categorized as high and low ADC in pre-nCRT (OS: P = 0.48 and DFS: P = 0.67; Fig. 3A, B). Moreover, we divided the patients into up and down groups based on the alteration in ADC values from pre-nCRT to post-nCRT. The patients with decreased ADC values from pre-nCRT to post-nCRT had a significantly worse OS and DFS (OS: P < 0.01 and DFS: P < 0.01; Fig. 3C, D). These findings highlight the clinical importance of ADC values between pre-nCRT and post-nCRT.
Furthermore, we conducted univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression analyses to evaluate the prognostic potentials, and patients categorized as low by ADC values in post-nCRT and decreased by alteration-nCRT had a significantly worse OS than patients in high groups (post-nCRT; univariate: hazard ratio [HR] = 5.09, 95% CI = 1.42–18.34, P = 0.01; multivariate: HR = 4.99, 95% CI = 0.97–25.62, P = 0.05 and alteration-nCRT; univariate: HR = 4.52, 95% CI = 1.58–12.97, P < 0.01; multivariate: HR = 6.38, 95% CI = 1.48–27.56, P = 0.01; Table 3). In contrast, patients categorized as low by ADC values in pre-nCRT showed no significant differences in OS (univariate: HR = 1.46, 95% CI = 0.51–4.20, P = 0.49). Among clinicopathological factors, an elevated carbohydrate antigen 19 − 9 (CA19-9) level, low LCR, and high NLR (neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio) were associated with a poor OS (CA19-9; univariate: HR = 3.37, 95% CI = 1.05–10.86, P = 0.04; multivariate: HR = 4.34, 95% CI = 0.94–20.11, P = 0.06, LCR; univariate: HR = 5.91, 95% CI = 1.29–27.05, P = 0.02; multivariate: HR = 4.73, 95% CI = 0.93–24.18, P = 0.06; NLR; univariate: HR = 4.16, 95% CI = 1.12–15.52, P = 0.03; multivariate: HR = 1.04, 95% CI = 0.24–4.61, P = 0.96). These results indicate that the alteration in ADC values between pre-nCRT and post-nCRT has prognostic potential in predicting the survival outcomes of patients with LARC.
Table 3
Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression analyses for overall survival
|
Univariate analysis
|
|
|
Multivariate analysis
|
Factors
|
HR
|
95% CI
|
p
|
|
HR
|
95% CI
|
p
|
Age
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(≥ 65 vs. <65 years)
|
0.82
|
0.29–2.34
|
0.71
|
|
|
|
|
Gender
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(Male vs. Female)
|
0.69
|
0.23–2.05
|
0.50
|
|
|
|
|
Tumor size
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(≥ 30mm vs. <30mm)
|
8.16
|
0.98–68.08
|
0.05
|
|
|
|
|
CEA level
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(≥ 5 ng/mL vs. <5 ng/mL)
|
3.20
|
0.89–11.51
|
0.08
|
|
|
|
|
CA19-9
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(≥ 37 U/mL vs. <37 U/mL)
|
3.37
|
1.05–10.86
|
0.04
|
|
4.34
|
0.94–20.11
|
0.06
|
Adjuvant chemotherapy
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(Yes vs. No)
|
1.67
|
0.51–5.43
|
0.40
|
|
|
|
|
LCR
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(Low vs. High)
|
5.91
|
1.29–27.05
|
0.02
|
|
4.73
|
0.93–24.18
|
0.06
|
NLR
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(High vs. Low)
|
4.16
|
1.12–15.52
|
0.03
|
|
1.04
|
0.24–4.61
|
0.96
|
PNI
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(Low vs. High)
|
2.15
|
0.65–7.14
|
0.21
|
|
|
|
|
TRG
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(0,1 vs. 2.3)
|
1.77
|
0.59–5.27
|
0.31
|
|
|
|
|
ADC pre-nCRT
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(Low vs. High)
|
1.46
|
0.51–4.20
|
0.49
|
|
|
|
|
ADC post-nCRT
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(Low vs. High)
|
5.09
|
1.42–18.34
|
0.01
|
|
4.99
|
0.97–25.62
|
0.05
|
ADC alteration-nCRT
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(Down vs. Up)
|
4.52
|
1.58–12.97
|
< 0.01
|
|
6.38
|
1.48–27.56
|
0.01
|
ADC, apparent diffusion coefficient; nCRT, neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy; CA19-9, carbohydrate antigen 19 − 9; CEA, carcinoembryonic antigen; CI: Confidence interval; HR, hazard ration; LCR, lymphocyte to c-reactive protein ratio; NAC, neoadjuvant chemotherapy; NLR, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio; PNI, prognostic nutritional index; SD, standard deviation; TRG, Tumor regression grade |