Challenges in monitoring volcanic plumes and ash transport. Explosive eruptions frequently release significant amounts of fine rock particles and glass fragments, referred to as volcanic ash, into the atmosphere. The emission of volcanic ash, owing to its highly abrasive nature and the low melting point of its glass component, can cause severe damage to aircrafts1,2,3. Nine Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres (VAACs) are deputed to evaluate the presence and extent of volcanic ash in the atmosphere, and to issue ash-cloud warnings to the aviation community around the world1. The ability of these operational centres to forecast the movement of ash in the atmosphere, and thus identify at-risk regions, is underpinned by complex numerical models. Such models require a set of input parameters that represent the meteorology of the atmosphere at the time of eruption (e.g., wind speed and direction, vertical temperature profile) and the nature of the eruptive source (e.g., source location, time and duration of eruption, vent geometry, height of the plume, mass eruption rate, particle size distribution, ash density and shape)4. Constraining the extensive parametrization of atmospheric ash transport models is challenging, and thus, their outputs are affected by substantial uncertainty. Meteorological parameters are usually well-constrained by data and models with temporal and spatial resolutions of the order of hours and few kilometers, respectively (e.g., the Met Office Unified Model5 used by the London VAAC4). Conversely, larger uncertainties are linked to estimates of eruption source parameters6,7 (ESP), in particular mass or volume eruption rate (MER or VER, respectively). Commonly, VER is estimated through inversion of so-called 0D eruption plume models (EPMs), that is empirical scaling relationships between VER and the height reached by the plume above the vent. The simplest, and most widely used, family of EPMs takes the general form \(H=C{V}^{n}\), where \(H\) is the maximum height reached by the plume above the vent, \(V\) is VER (measured as \({m}^{3}\) of dense-rock equivalent per second), \(C\) and \(n\) are constants8,1. For the purpose of informing volcanic ash transport modelling, 1D integral EPMs have also been increasingly tested owing to their ability to include processes such as the entrainment of atmospheric air into the eruption column, and to account for the effect of wind speed and direction on plume rise9,4. The main challenge in the use of EPMs for assessment of VER is that they require validation, which depends on the availability of independent measurements of both plume heights and MER/VER10,11,1. Independent column height estimates are available from either satellite and ground-based (e.g., camera, radar, lidar) measurements albeit with limitations posed by data latency, logistics and weather conditions. The majority of independent VER estimates are average measurements of the ratio between the total volume of erupted tephra and the duration of the eruptive event. These data can exhibit significant scatter12,4, which arises from differences in the techniques employed to evaluate the volume of tephra deposits and the duration of eruptions, and factors such as the impact of wind speed and direction on the rise of volcanic plumes. Therefore, the need for new methods to quantify volcanic emissions has emerged as a critical step towards improving our capacity to assess and mitigate hazards from volcanic ash.
Measurements of volume eruption rate. In recent years, a series of studies have proposed methods to estimate VER/MER from analyses of ground-based radar, thermal infrared (IR), and acoustic data13,14 used echo power data from Doppler Radar measurements to estimate MER at Stromboli and Mt. Etna (Italy) volcanoes, respectively15 proposed a workflow to measure MER using microwave weather radar and infrasound array data collected during eruptions at Eyjafjallajökull (Iceland, 2010), Grímsvötn (Iceland, 2011) and Mt. Etna (2013)16; employed a combination of thermal camera imagery and infrasound array data to evaluate plume exit velocity during the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption17 calculated the exit velocity of the eruptive jet from thermal IR data during paroxysmal activity at Mt. Etna in 2020–2021. Among these methods, infrasound has emerged as a promising tool to quantify VER/MER owing to the comparatively low costs associated with sensor installation and maintenance, data availability in real-time, and its suitability for automated data processing. A substantial body of research has informed continuous development of methods for inversion of acoustic waveforms aimed at quantifying volcanic emissions18,19,16 used scaling laws that link the power radiated by acoustic sources to gas velocity during flow from a volcanic vent20,21,22 used a monopole source model, that is a compact source that radiates acoustic waves hemispherically, to quantify volcanic emissions at Mt. Erebus (Antarctica) and Sakurajima volcano (Japan)23 introduced a waveform inversion method to calculate VER at Tungurahua volcano (Ecuador) based on the Green’s Function solution to the inhomogeneous Helmoltz wave equation in a half-space; the method, based on the representation of the acoustic pressure wavefield as a combination of monopole and dipole terms, was also applied by24 at Santiaguito volcano (Guatemala). Progress in numerical modelling of the acoustic wavefield generated by compact volcanic sources25,26 underpinned additional studies focussed on retrieval of VER via full waveform inversion of infrasound signals using 3D numerical Green’s Functions27,28,29,30. A comprehensive review of these methods and their underlying theoretical frameworks can be found in31. More recently32,33 have shown that VER can be calculated from direct integration of the pressure wavefield after applying corrections for scattering from topography, wavefield directivity (controlled by vent geometry and the acoustic wavenumber) and reflectance at the conduit outlet32 accounted for topographic scattering of the acoustic wavefield at Copahue volcano (Argentina) via the insertion loss (IL) parameter in the screen diffraction approximation33 assumed that topographic scattering at Mt. Etna was negligible as the position of the infrasound array used was in line-of-sight with the erupting vent34, however, demonstrated that the screen diffraction approximation is only appropriate under specific conditions and suggested that numerical simulations are the best tool to estimate IL; a workflow for calculating maps of IL based on numerical modelling of acoustic wave propagation over volcanic topography was proposed by ref.26.
Here, we build on this extensive body of research and demonstrate a workflow to obtain independent estimates of VER from the integration of attenuation-corrected infrasound data recorded at Mt. Etna, Italy. We compare our results to independent estimates of flow velocity at the vent obtained from analyses of ground-based thermal IR imagery. Finally, we show how VER can be used as a direct input into 1D plume models for rapid assessment of maximum column height, thus, providing key monitoring information when other observations may not be available.
Eruptive activity at Mt. Etna: June 2021. Mt. Etna, Italy, is one of the most active volcanoes in the world. One of its distinctive features is the frequent occurrence of so-called paroxysms, that is episodes of intense explosive activity lasting from tens of minutes to many hours35. Paroxysms typically occur in clusters within eruptive periods that can last from few weeks to months36. Between December 2020 and February 2022 Mt. Etna produced 66 paroxysms17. In this study, we focus on an episode on 20 June, 2021, part of a sequence of paroxysms that occurred, with striking regularity, during the second half of June 2021. These events had durations of up to few hours and all followed the characteristic pattern of paroxysmal activity at Mt. Etna. Initial rapid-fire Strombolian explosions evolved into nearly continuous lava fountaining, feeding lava flows and volcanic plumes with heights of up to several kilometers above the vent37. Infrasound and thermal IR data recorded during the paroxysmal activity on 20 June are shown in Figs. 1a-1f. Figures 1c-1d illustrate early Strombolian activity, consisting of discrete explosions clearly distinguishable in both the waveform (Fig. 1c) and spectrogram (Fig. 1d). During the later stages of the paroxysm, the acoustic signal evolves into nearly continuous tremor (Fig. 1e) and individual explosions are only occasionally discerned (Fig. 1f). Figure 1b shows thermal IR images tracking the change from discrete explosions to lava fountains feeding a sustained volcanic plume.
Data
Infrasound array. For this study, we used acoustic data recorded by a temporary 6-element infrasound array deployed in June 2021. The array was installed and operated by the University of Liverpool and the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV sezione di Pisa and INGV-Osservatorio Etneo) at the Mt. Conca site (Fig. 2a, CONC), approximately 6km from the active vent within the South East Crater (SEC) area (Fig. 2b). The array had an aperture (i.e., max distance between any two sensors) of 50m (Fig. 2c) and was instrumented with IST2018 infrasound microphones38 (full-scale range of 480 Pa peak-to-peak, flat response between 0.1 and 40 Hz). Data were recorded on-site with a sampling frequency of 100 Hz and 24-bit resolution.
Thermal IR. Mt. Etna is routinely monitored by INGV-Osservatorio Etneo (INGV-OE) with an extensive multi-parameter sensor network, including thermal IR cameras. Here, we used thermal imagery of the ENT camera recorded at the site located in Nicolosi (Fig. 2a), approximately 15km from the active summit craters. The site is equipped with a Flir A40M camera recording IR images in the \(7.5-13\mu m\) band, with a field of view of 640x480 pixels and thermal sensitivity of \(80mK\)at 25°17,39. The camera records images with a sampling rate of \(0.5Hz\), and provides a spatial resolution of 1.3 \(\mu rad\) (at the ENT site). We chose this site as it provides the best trade-off between data availability, spatial and temporal resolution, and the ability to track the development of the eruptive plume during paroxysmal activity.
X-band Radar. Volcanic plumes from Etna are also observed using a dual polarimetric X-band radar, managed by the Italian Department of the Civil Protection, part of the national weather radar network40. The X-band dual-polarization radar, located at the international airpot of Catania (distance of about 32 km from the SEC), has a wavelength of 3.1 cm (9.6 GHz), peak power of 50 kW and half-power beam width of 1.3°. The radar scans a volume defined by an area of 160×160 km2 and a height of 20 km, recording data along 12 elevation angles every 10 minutes.