Demographics
A total of 1,070,966 participants were diagnosed with DR between January 2003 and December 2019. After considering a two-year washout period and identifying incidental cases, 898,988 participants with DR and 143,657 with PDR were enrolled between January 2005 and December 2019. After screening all incidental cases of blindness among the eligible participants, 8,442 cases were excluded because of a history of blindness before the index date of DR diagnosis. The final cohort included 774,062 participants (387,452 males and 386,610 females) in the NPDR group, and 115,212 participants (64,791 males and 50,421 females) in the PDR group. Among all the participants, 611,027 (78.9 %) had type 2 DM in the NPDR group and 75,711 (65.7%) in the PDR group.
The 15-year cumulative incidence of blindness
The incidences of blindness were 22,888 (2.6%) including 16,738 (2.2%) in the NPDR group and 6,150 (5.3%) in the PDR groups. Among blindness cases, 16,858 (73.7 %) had type 2 DM. The mean interval between the index date of initial DR diagnosis and blindness was 3.96 ±3.06 years. The interval was 4.91±3.33, 4.33±3.13, and 3.25±2.69 years for those in their 30s, 50s, and 70s, respectively.
In the NPDR group, 2162.36 (95% CI: 2161.18-2163.54) per 100,000 had blindness (2109.16 [95% CI: 2085.93-2132.39] and 2215.67 [95% CI: 2191.81-2239.53] per 100,000 males and females, respectively) (Table 1). The mean age at diagnosis of blindness was 65.6±11.7 years in males and 68.0±11.1 years in females.
In the PDR group, 5339.29 (95% CI: 5326.86-5351.72) per 100,000 people had blindness (5204.43 [95% CI: 4986.19-5422.66] and 5512.58 [95% CI: 5223.97-5801.20] per 100,000 males and females, respectively). The mean age at diagnosis of blindness was 61.2±10.7 years in males and 63.2±11.0 years in females. Over the past 15 years, the cumulative incidence of blindness in each DR group was significantly higher than the estimated incidence in the entire population (Figure 1, Supplementary Table 2).
Epidemiologic multi-angle trends of blindness
Prior to 2010, the blindness rates in the NPDR group were significantly higher for those aged 60 years and older than for younger age groups (Figure 2). However, these rates have declined sharply in recent years, with the most recent period (2017-2019) showing no remarkable difference in the blindness rates across all age groups. There was no drastic change across the entire period for those in their 20s to 40s. Overall, the age-specific blindness rates were lower in more recent periods than in older periods. In the PDR group, until 2010, the peak incidence was in those in their 60s; after 2014, the peak incidence was in those in their 40s, showing a gradual shift in peak incidence in terms of age. From 2005 to 2013, the blindness rate gradually increased for those aged between 20 and 50 years and then decreased, with similar rates in all age groups in recent years (2017-2019). The rate of blindness increased in those born more recently within the same age group. This trend was more pronounced in the PDR group than in the NPDR group.
Relative risk of APC effects on blindness
In the NPDR group, the relative risk of the effect of age on blindness increased continuously up to those in their 60s (Figure 3). In the PDR group, the relative risk of the age effect on blindness increased rapidly from those in their 20s to 30s and then became moderate in males; it increased rapidly until 49 years and then became moderate in females. The risk of the age effect on blindness was rather small and tended to decrease in both sexes after 70 years old.
The relative risk of blindness in each period began to decrease in 2008 and sharply decreased in 2011 in both sexes in the NPDR group (mean annual decrease:5.6%). In the PDR group, the risk of blindness tended to increase in older periods (2005-2008) and then decreased from 2011, with a sharp decrease after 2014-2016 (mean annual decrease:4.4%).
Relative risk of the cohort effect on blindness differed between the NPDR and PDR groups. In the NPDR group, males born in 1920 and females born in 1930 had the highest risk of blindness, which decreased rapidly for both sexes after that. Individuals of both sexes born after 1980 had an increased risk of blindness. In the PDR group, males born between 1920 and 1930 had the highest risk of blindness, whereas those born between 1970 and 1980 had the lowest risk. Males born after 1980 have an increased risk of developing blindness. In females, the opposite trend was observed; those born in 1960 had the highest risk of blindness, with the risk decreasing sharply for those born subsequently. For those born after 1980, the decline in the rate of risk has slowed significantly.
Goodness of fit for the APC model on blindness
Table 2 presents the goodness of fit (scaled deviance) of the APC models used to assess whether each model had a significant effect on blindness throughout the study period. In all groups, each model showed a high value of adj–R2A (explanatory power) of 0.8 or higher. After adjusting for age, the period and cohort effects on blindness were statistically significant (p<0.001). Among all the models, the combination model of age, period, and cohort effects showed the highest adj–R2A (0.96 in the NPDR group and 0.91 in the PDR group).