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FML-Type Dercum’s disease: People with FML have multiple lipomas that are non-painful. In some families with FML, one or more people can develop painful lipomas consistent with Dercum’s disease.(6) The prevalence of FML is reported as 1/50,000.(9) Using the estimate of 1/50,000 people having FML in the US, and 327M people in the US (2018 estimate), then 6,540 people potentially have FML in the United States. In families of people with FML, about 20% will develop pain and signs and symptoms of Dercum’s disease.(5) Twenty percent of 6,540 people with FML is 1,308 people in the US potentially with FML-Type Dercum disease (Table 1).
Table 1
Source, methods and outcomes for estimating prevalence of Dercum Disease
Dercum Disease (DD) Type or Resource | Methods | Prevalence Estimate |
Familial Multiple Lipomatosis (FML)-Type Dercum’s Disease | 1/50,000 people in the US predicted to have FML(9) x 2018 estimated US population of 327 M people = 6,540 people in the US potentially with FML x ~ 20% will develop DD(5) | 1,208 |
FML- and Angiolipoma-Type Dercum’s disease | 61 of 428 subjects from a 743,000-population study had multiple lipomas (lipomas and angiolipomas) = 1/12,000 × 2018 estimated US population of 327 M | 27,250 |
United Kingdom (UK) Biobank- ICD-10 Code E88.2 Dercum’s disease | • ICD-10 code E88.2 is assigned for DD and other lipomatous disorders • Of 410,293 people in the UK Biobank with ICD codes, 50 people had E88.2 code assigned • Assume all fifty people with E88.2 code had DD • Prevalence rate = 0.012% in this population x 2018 estimated US population 327 M | 39,849 |
AHRQ HCUP database ICD-9 diagnosis of Lipoid Metabolic Disorder (NEC) 272.8 | • AHRQ HCUP database search 2007–2014 for ED visits coded for ICD-9 272.8 • In 2014, 207 ± 32 (SE) visits by patients with 272.8 coding • Assume all patients had DD • Estimated rate for ED visits for ICD-9 code 272.8 = 1 per 1,000,000 (137,807,901 total visits; US population 318.6M) • Assuming for every 1 patient with DD with significant pain to visit the ED, 100 did not, 207 × 100 = 20,700 | 20,700 |
Social media forum participation rates extrapolated form MCAS to DD | • Estimated 50,000 diagnosed MCAS patients in the US and 24%-48% forum participation • Four DD forums online, with estimated participation numbers of 2,408 assuming no redundancy • Assuming 24% participation (from above), 100% participation = 10,033; if 50% participation; the prevalence of DD is 4,816 | 4,816 |
Prevalence of Dercum’s Disease Survey of Physicians; Fat Disorder Research Societies Annual Congress | • Survey of physicians attending the Fat Disorder Resource Society Annual Congress 2017, 2018, 2019 • Average number of patients with DD per physician = 4 • ~ 1/1000 patients with DD are referred to physicians who specialize in fat disorders • Prevalence = 4 × 10 physicians x 1,000 | 40,000 |
Social Media Fat Disorder Patient Forums | • Data from fat disorder patient forums enriched for patients with DD, typically 2-3K patients on forums • 44 patients report having DD • Assume patient overlap in the forums • Social media group participation at a low rate = 1/10 − 1/100 = 44 × 10 and 44 × 100 | 440–4,440 |
Prevalence of Dercum Disease-Estimate Based on Internet Google Search | a) Google US monthly search volume for acute myeloid leukemia (AML; 27,100), leukemia (all types; 368,000) and DD (5,400); Search volume for DD = 1.46% of all leukemia searches and 19.9% of AML searches; According to the National Cancer Institute, ~ 414,733 people in the US living with all leukemia in 2016 × 1.46% = 6,055 b) AML US prevalence (132,727) x 19.9% = 26,412 | a) 6,055 b) 26,412 |
Author (KLH) | • 2,500 patients/year with fat disorders • 6 patients with FML-type DD + 10 patients with angiolipomas = 0.64% prevalence x 2018 US estimated population of 327 M | 115,000 |
Mast Cell Specialist | • 3000 + cases with mast cell disease; 10 patients had DD = 0.3%; Specialist estimates 50 M mast cell cases in the US population | 150–150,00 |
Specialist in chronic fatigue syndrome and other complex chronic disease | • Of 1500 patients, 2 had DD = 0.1% • Assume 133M people in US with chronic illness(20) | 133,000 |
Author (BRM) | 4 cases of Dercum disease in 3000 patients over 10 years | 0.13% patients |
Author (TW) | • > 24 years in practice; ~30/20,000 patients with DD • If 10–100 physicians have 10–50 times as many patients with DD as KOL-3, the largest estimate of prevalence of people with DD based on those who seek treatment = 20 × 50 × 100 | 150,000 |
Abbreviations: AML – acute myelogenous leukemia; DD – Dercum’s disease; ED – Emergency Department; ICD – International Classification of Disease; MCAS – mast cell activation syndrome; SE – standard error |
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FML-Type and Angiolipoma-Type Dercum’s disease: A population-based study of 743,000 inhabitants in Sweden(10) evaluated non-visceral lipomas histopathologically from 428 patients during a one-year period and retrospectively analyzed patient age, duration of symptoms, lipoma size, site (location and depth) and multiplicity of lipomas. Sixty-one people were found to have multiple lipomas (both simple lipomas and angiolipomas), and if we assume all had Dercum’s disease, this represents a prevalence of 1/12,000 (61/743,000). While this subpopulation was not defined in the article as having Dercum’s disease, it is likely that they may be patients with Dercum’s disease since having multiple lipomas is a significant hallmark of Dercum’s disease. Although Sweden and the US are different countries, a gross assumption towards the US population can be made. Using 1/12,000 prevalence and a US population of 327M (US estimate in 2018) would result in an estimated US prevalence of 27,250 patients with Dercum’s disease.
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United Kingdom (UK) Biobank Estimate: The UK Biobank is an international health resource and registered charity with the aim of improving the prevention, diagnosis and treatment of a wide range disorders (UK Biobank, n.d.).(11) In 2006–2010, 500,000 people aged between 40–69 years were recruited from across the United Kingdom to take part in this project. They underwent several measures, provided blood, urine and saliva samples for future analyses and detailed information about themselves, and agreed to have their health followed. International Classification of Disease (ICD)-10 codes are available for 410,293 participants. The ICD-10 code for Dercum’s disease is E88.2, for Lipomatosis, Not Elsewhere Classified (NEC). This code includes other rare lipomatous disorders as well. Fifty people in the UK Biobank had ICD-10 code E88.2. If we assume all fifty people under this code had Dercum’s disease of 410,293 people sampled, the prevalence rate in this population is 0.012%, confirming Dercum disease is rare in the UK. If we use these data to make a gross assumption for the US population of 327M people (estimate for 2018), then 39,849 people in the US could have Dercum’s disease.
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The H-CUP Database by AHRQ:(12) The HCUP database is maintained by AHRQ. A search was conducted on data from 2007 to 2014 for all emergency department (ED) visits by ICD-9 diagnosis, Lipoid Metabolic Disorder (NEC) 272.8. AHRQ maintains a free version of this database with ICD-9 codes from 2006 to 2014. The data after 2014 must be purchased and only from 2016 onward, are ICD-10 codes used.
In 2014, 207 +/- 32 (SE) ED visits by patients with Lipoid Disorder NEC (ICD-9 272.8) were recorded across the US. From this data, the fraction of patients with 272.8 who had Dercum’s disease is not known, but if a patient with Dercum’s disease visited the ED for pain, they would likely receive the ICD-9 diagnosis code 272.8.
Assuming all patients visiting the ED who were classified as having painful Lipoid Disorders were patients with Dercum’s disease, the rate of ED visits for this diagnosis in 2014 was 1 per 1,000,000 emergency visits (137,807,901 total visits; US population 318.6M). Assuming that for each patient with Dercum’s disease who had pain sufficiently serious to visit the ED, there were 100 who did not, the total prevalence of Dercum’s disease for 2014 would be 207*100 = 20,700 cases. This methodology contains errors that would grossly overestimate the prevalence of Dercum’s disease because of the assumptions that: a) all ED visits falling under this diagnostic code were for patients with Dercum’s disease and b) they represent 1% of the population of people with Dercum’s disease for whom pain was a reason to visit the ED.
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Social Media Forum Participation rates extrapolated from Mast Cell Activation Syndrome (MCAS): In MCAS patient forums, a group enriched for patients with Dercum’s disease, there are typically 6 k -12 k patients per site. With an estimated 50K diagnosed MCAS patients in the US, this represents a 24%-48% forum participation. An assumption can be made that there is a comparable percentage participation among patients with Dercum’s disease, as many patients with Dercum’s disease have MCAS especially those with angiolipomas, as mast cells are common in these lesions.(1) There are four Dercum’s disease forums on the internet, with participation numbers of 379, 391, 211 and 1,427 totaling 2,408, assuming no redundancy for individuals participating in more than one site (thus systematically over-estimating the numbers); assuming 24% participation, then 100% participation would give 10,033 total patients with Dercum’s disease; if 50% participation, then the prevalence of Dercum’s disease would be 4,816. If assuming only 10% participation, then the prevalence of Dercum’s disease would be 48,160 (Table 1).
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Prevalence of Dercum’s Disease from Specialists whose practices focus on the diagnosis and treatment of subcutaneous fat disorders: A survey was conducted of physicians who attended the Fat Disorder Resource Society (FDRS; fatdisorders.org) Annual Congress in 2017, 2018 and 2019 about the prevalence of patients with Dercum’s Disease in their practice. These are physicians who have focused part of their practice on diagnosis and treatment of Madelung’s Disease, Dercum’s Disease and lipedema. The survey respondents represent University based medical referral practices as well as private practices across the US. The average number of patients per physician with Dercum’s Disease was 4 individuals (authors KLH and BRM were not included or surveyed). While it is logical that individuals diagnosed with or suspected to have Dercum’s Disease or a related subcutaneous fat disorder would either self-refer or be referred to physician who specializes in the diagnosis and treatment of Dercum’s Disease, it is quite possible that only a fraction of such individuals are either self-referred or referred by their primary medical providers. If only a small percentage of individuals with Dercum’s Disease, 1/100 or 1/1000, are referred, then one would predict the prevalence of Dercum’s disease to be at an upper limit, 4 (patients per physician)*10 physicians*1,000 = 40,000.
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Social Media Forum Participation Rates Extrapolated from Fat Disorders: In patient forums with a focus on subcutaneous fat disorders, a group significantly enriched for patients with Dercum’s Disease, there are typically 2-3K patients (on two forums). Of these patients, there are 44 patients who report being diagnosed with Dercum’s disease on the two forums. These individuals could be duplicated with the support forums and may also be on other support forums. Most rare diseases have social media support group participation in the 20–50% range. However, assuming participation at the very lowest rates of 1/100–1/1000, the total prevalence would be for a lower limit, 44*100 = 440, and for an upper limit, 44*1000 = 4,440.
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Estimate Based on Internet Searches for Dercum’s Disease (Google AdWords Research):(13) In 2013, the Pew Research Center conducted an Internet and American Life Project. They found that 35% of US adults search for information on medical conditions they or someone they know might have.(14) A significant portion of Google search volume represents individuals, their family, or close friends searching for information on new symptoms or information on a new medical diagnosis. Physicians increasingly use internet search to help with diagnosis of diseases, especially with uncommon diseases.(16) Physicians use Google searches to access sites such as Medline, Medscape, Up-to-Date, MD Consult, Ovid and may others to aid in diagnosis of their patients.(15, 16)
The Monthly Search Volume for a disease on Google in the US was as follows: Acute Myeloid Leukemia (AML)- 27,100 Searches; Leukemia- 368,00 Searches (All Types); Dercum’s Disease- 5,400 Searches. The search volume for Dercum’s Disease is 0.0146 or 1.46% of that of all Leukemia searches. The search volume for Dercum’s Disease is 0.199 or 19.9% of AML searches. According to the National Cancer Institute,(17) it is estimated there were 414,773 people living with all kinds of leukemia in the United States in 2016. Based on these data, the prevalence of all types of leukemia and the relative percentage of internet searches of 1.46%, the estimated prevalence of people with Dercum’s Disease is 6,055 individuals in the US. About 21,450 new cases of AML are diagnosed each year. Most will be in adults, according to the American Cancer Society. AML makes up 32% of all leukemia cases with a prevalence of 132,727 individuals in the US population. Based on the diagnosis and the relative percentage of internet searches of the two diagnosis of Dercum’s Disease to AML of 19.9%, then 26,412 individuals in the USA would have Dercum’s disease.