Patient characteristics
The study included 203 patients, 169 men and 34 women, of median age 57 years (range, 34 to 86 years). The most common cause of underlying liver disease was hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection (68.5%). Of the 203 patients, 121 were not further treated and were included in the control group, whereas 53 patients were treated with TACE alone and 29 with sorafenib plus TACE. Their baseline characteristics are shown in Table 1. Mean ages of patients in the TACE (59.9 ± 8.69 years), TACE plus sorafenib (58.9 ± 10.6 years) and control (56.4 ± 8.46 years) groups were similar (p=0.198), as were the proportion of men (p=0.379), MVI grade (p=0.773), hepatitis B surface antigen positivity (p=0.724), AFP (p=0.988) and carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) (p=0.449) concentrations, maximum tumor diameter (p=0.510), and number of tumors (p=0.535). In addition, there were no significant differences in alanine aminotransferase (ALT) (p=0.391) and total bilirubin (Tbil) (p=0.373) concentrations, or in the proportions with liver cirrhosis (p=0.925) and those within the Milan criteria (p=0.313).
Table 1. Patient baseline demographic and clinical characteristics
Characteristics
|
Control group
|
TACE
|
Sorafenib + TACE
|
P
|
|
N=121
|
N=53
|
N=29
|
|
Age(years)
|
59.9 (±8.69)
|
58.9 (±10.6)
|
56.4 (±8.46)
|
0.198
|
Gender
|
|
|
|
0.379
|
Male,n (%)
|
97 (80.2%)
|
47 (88.7%)
|
25 (86.2%)
|
|
Female,n (%)
|
24 (19.8%)
|
6 (11.3%)
|
4 (13.8%)7(11.3%) (11.3%) (13.8%)
|
|
MVI
|
|
|
|
0.773
|
I,n (%)
|
93 (76.9%)
|
42 (79.2%)
|
24 (82.8%)
|
|
II,n (%)
|
28 (23.1%)
|
11 (20.8%)
|
5 (17.2%)
|
|
Positive for HBsAg
|
|
|
|
0.724
|
Yes, n (%)
|
84 (69.4%)
|
37 (69.8%)
|
18 (62.1%)
|
|
No, n (%)
|
37 (30.6%)
|
16 (30.2%)
|
11 (37.9%)
|
|
AFP (ng/ml)
|
|
|
|
0.988
|
>400, n (%)
|
42 (34.7%)
|
19 (35.8%)
|
10 (34.5%)
|
|
<400, n (%)
|
79 (65.3%)
|
34 (64.2%)
|
19 (65.5%)
|
|
CEA (ng/ml)
|
|
|
|
0.449
|
>5, n (%)
|
15 (12.4%)
|
6 (11.3%)
|
1 (3.45%)
|
|
<5, n (%)
|
106 (87.6%)
|
47 (88.7%)
|
28 (96.6%)
|
|
Tumor diameter (cm)
|
|
|
|
0.510
|
<5, n (%)
|
43 (35.5%)
|
17 (32.1%)
|
13 (44.8%)
|
|
>5, n (%)
|
78 (64.5%)
|
36 (67.9%)
|
16 (55.2%)
|
|
Tumor number
|
|
|
|
0.535
|
single, n (%)
|
104 (86.0%)
|
48 (90.6%)
|
24 (82.8%)
|
|
multiple, n (%)
|
17 (14.0%)
|
5 (9.43%)
|
5 (17.2%)
|
|
Tbil (μmol/L)
|
|
|
|
0.373
|
<17.1, n (%)
|
102 (84.3%)
|
40 (75.5%)
|
23 (79.3%)
|
|
>17.1, n (%)
|
19 (15.7%)
|
13 (24.5%)
|
6 (20.7%)
|
|
Exceed Milan Criteria
|
|
|
|
0.313
|
Yes, n (%)
|
87 (71.9%)
|
39 (73.6%)
|
17 (58.6%)
|
|
No, n (%)
|
34 (28.1%)
|
14 (26.4%)
|
12 (41.4%)
|
|
Liver cirrhosis
|
|
|
|
0.925
|
No, n (%)
|
58 (47.9%)
|
24 (45.3%)
|
13 (44.8%)
|
|
Yes, n (%)
|
63 (52.1%)
|
29 (54.7%)
|
16 (55.2%)
|
|
ALT (U/L)
)
|
|
|
|
0.391
|
<40, n (%)
|
88 (72.7%)
|
42 (79.2%)
|
19 (65.5%)
|
|
>40, n (%)
|
33 (27.3%)
|
11 (20.8%)
|
10 (34.5%)
|
|
Abbreviations: MVI, microvascular invasion; AFP, α-fetoprotein; CEA, carcinoembryonic antigen; ALT, alanine aminotransferase; HBsAg, hepatitis B virus surface antigen; Tbil, total bilirubin. Values are shown as mean ± standard deviation or n (%)
Survival outcomes
Of the 203 patients, 80 died and 123 survived. The median OS of patients in the control, TACE alone and TACE plus sorafenib groups were 28.5 months (95% CI 21.5-35.3 months), 39 months (95% CI 30.2-48.3 months) and 44.6 months (95% CI 40.81-48.4 months), respectively, and their median DFS were 17.2 months (95% CI 13.2-21.3 months), 25.4 months (95% CI 17.7-33.1 months) and 30.1 months (95% CI 25.2-38.7 months), respectively. Survival was significantly longer in the TACE plus sorafenib group than in the other two groups. The 3-year OS and DFS rates in the TACE plus sorafenib group were 40.1% and 78.5%, respectively (Table 2).
Table 2. Survival rates and median survival duration in different groups
Variables
|
LR
|
LR+TACE
|
LR+TACE+Sorafenib
|
Median DFS
|
|
|
|
Time (95% CI), months
|
17.2 (13.2~21.3)
|
25.4 (17.7~33.1)
|
30.1 (25.2~38.7)
|
DFS,%
|
|
|
|
1-year
|
62.0%
|
64.1%
|
85.8%
|
2-year
|
28.6%
|
51.6%
|
54.1%
|
3-year
|
12.3%
|
27.3%
|
40.1%
|
Median OS
|
|
|
|
Time (95% CI), months
|
28.5 (21.5~35.3)
|
39 (30.2~48.3)
|
44.6 (40.81~48.4)
|
OS, %
|
|
|
|
1-year
|
82.6%
|
84.9%
|
96.4%
|
2-year
|
57.2%
|
68.9%
|
91.6%
|
3-year
|
36.3%
|
62.0%
|
78.5%
|
Abbreviations: HR, hazard ratio; CI, confidence interval; OS, overall Survival; DFS, disease free survival; LR, liver resection; TACE transcatheter arterial chemoembolization
Comparison between the TACE and control groups
OS rate was significantly higher in the TACE than in the control group. Eighteen patients (34.0%) in the TACE group died, with their 1-year and 2-year OS rates being 84.9% and 68.9%, respectively, and their median OS being 39 months (95 %CI 30.2~48.3 months). Fifty-nine patients (48.8%) in the control group died, with their 1-year and 2-year OS rates being 82.6% and 57.2%, respectively, and their median OS being 28.5 months (95%CI 21.5~35.3 months), Postoperative survival time was significantly longer in the TACE than in the control group (p=0.00043, Fig. 1A).
The recurrence rate was significantly lower in the TACE than in the control group (p=0.00072, Fig. 1B). Ninety-eight patients (81%) in the control group experienced early recurrence, with the 1-year and 2-year recurrence rates being 38% and 71.4%, respectively, and the median DFS being 17.2 months (95%CI 13.2~21.3 months). In comparison, 32 patients (60.4%) treated with TACE alone had early recurrence, with the 1-year and 2-year recurrence rates being 35.9% and 48.4%, respectively, and the median DFS being 25.4 months (95%CI 17.7~33.1 months).
Comparison between the TACE and TACE +Sorafenib group
OS was significantly longer in the TACE plus sorafenib than in the TACE group (p=0.0013, Fig. 1C). Three patients (10.3%) in the TACE plus sorafenib group, with patients in this group having a median OS of 44.6 months (95% CI 40.81-48.4 months) and 1-year and 2-year OS rates of 96.4% and 91.6% respectively. In comparison, 18 patients (34.0%) in the TACE group died, with patients in this group having a median OS of 39 months (95%CI 30.2-48.3 months) and 1-year and 2-year OS rates of 84.9% and 68.9%, respectively.
DFS was also significantly longer in the TACE plus sorafenib than in the TACE group (p=0.0016, Fig. 1D). Twelve 12 (41.4%%) in the TACE plus sorafenib group experienced tumor recurrence, with 1-year and 2-year recurrence rates of 14.2% and 36.9%, respectively, and a median DFS of 30.1 months (95% CI 25.2-38.7 months). In comparison, 32 patients (60.4%) experienced recurrence in the TACE group, with 1-year and 2-year recurrence rates of 35.9% and 48.4%, respectively, and a median DFS in this group of 25.4 months (95% CI 17.7~33.1 months).
Factors Associated with Patient Survival
Cox multivariate regression analysis showed that tumor diameter ≥ 5 cm (HR 3.4197, 95% CI 1.885~6.203), and AFP ≥ 400 µg/ml (HR 2.6927, 95% CI 1.716~4.226, p=0.0000187) were factors significantly prognostic of reduced OS (Table 3).
Table 3. Univariate and multivariate analyses of factors affecting overall survival (OS)
|
Univariate Cox P
|
HR
|
95% CI
|
P
|
Sex
male/female
|
0.239
|
|
|
|
Age
Per year
|
0.00313
|
2.0127
1
|
1.265-3.201
|
0.34624
|
Tumor maximal diameter (cm)
>5/<5
|
0.0000519
|
3.4197
1
|
1.885~6.203
|
0.00146
|
Exceed Milan Criteria No/Yes
|
0.000738
|
2.8826
1
|
1.559~5.331
|
0.18271
|
TACE
Yes/No
|
0.000638
|
0.4182
1
|
0.2536~0.6898
|
0.01163
|
Sorafenib
Yes/No
|
0.00412
|
0.1847
1
|
0.05824~0.5856
|
0.04594
|
MVI
M1/M2
|
0.342
|
|
|
|
Tumor number
Single/multiple
|
0.141
|
|
|
|
cirrhosis
Yes/No
|
0.285
|
|
|
|
AFP (ng/ml)
>400<400
|
0.0000165
|
2.6927
1
|
1.716~4.226
|
0.0000187
|
ALT(U/L)
>40/<40
|
0.287
|
|
|
|
Positive for HBsAg
Yes/No
|
0.0782
|
|
|
|
CEA (ng/ml)
>5<5
|
0.699
|
|
|
|
TBIL (µmol/l)
>17.1/ <17.1
|
0.719
|
|
|
|
Abbreviations: HR, hazard ratio; CI, confidence interval; MVI, microvascular invasion; AFP, α-fetoprotein; CEA, carcinoembryonic antigen; ALT, alanine aminotransferase; HBsAg, hepatitis B virus surface antigen; Tbil, total bilirubin; TACE, transcatheter arterial chemoembolization
Factors prognostic of reduced DFS included tumor maximum diameter ≥ 5cm (HR 3.8645, 95% CI 2.125~7.029, p=0.0019), hepatitis B positivity (HR 1.668, 95% CI 1.005~2.769, p=0.0355), and AFP ≥ 400 µg/ml (HR 2.835, 95% CI 1.813~4.433, p=0.000014) (Table 4).
Table 4. Univariate and multivariate analyses of factors predictive of disease-free survival (DFS)
|
Univariate Cox P
|
HR
|
95% CI
|
P
|
Sex
male/female
|
0.599
|
|
|
|
Age
Per year
|
0.00102
|
2.1816
1
|
1.370~3.474
|
0.3469
|
Tumor maximal diameter (cm)
>5/<5
|
0.0000095
|
3.8645
1
|
2.125~7.029
|
0.0019
|
Exceed Milan Criteria No/Yes
|
0.000125
|
3.3427
1
|
1.804~6.193
|
0.3564
|
TACE
Yes/No
|
0.00101
|
0.4318
1
|
0.262~0.712
|
0. 0608
|
Sorafenib
Yes/No
|
0.00469
|
0.1891
1
|
0.060~0.600
|
0.0336
|
MVI
M1/M2
|
0.227
|
|
|
|
Tumor number
Single/multiple
|
0.129
|
|
|
|
cirrhosis
Yes/No
|
0.394
|
|
|
|
AFP (ng/ml)
>400<400
|
0.0000049
|
2.835
1
|
1.813~4.433
|
0.000014
|
ALT(U/L)
>40/<40
|
0.541
|
|
|
|
Positive for HBsAg
Yes/No
|
0.0478
|
1.668
1
|
1.005~2.769
|
0.0355
|
CEA (ng/ml)
>5<5
|
0.71
|
|
|
|
TBIL (µmol/l)
>17.1/ <17.1
|
0.953
|
|
|
|
Abbreviations: HR, hazard ratio; CI, confidence interval; MVI, microvascular invasion; AFP, α-fetoprotein; CEA, carcinoembryonic antigen; ALT, alanine aminotransferase; HBsAg, hepatitis B virus surface antigen; Tbil, total bilirubin; TACE, transcatheter arterial chemoembolization
Factors Associated with Survival of patients in TACE group
Table 5 shows that the three predictors of OS in the TACE group, tumor diameter, TACE frequency, and liver cirrhosis, are independent risk factors affecting the prognosis of TACE treatment. Tumor diameter ≥ 5cm (HR 6.783, 95% CI 1.511~30.445, p=0.012) and liver cirrhosis (HR 6.446, 95% CI 1.993~20.847, p=0.002) were risk factors, whereas and ≥ 3 TACE sessions was a protective factor (HR 0.284, 95%CI 0.109~0.742, P=0.01).
Table 5. Multivariate analysis of factors affecting prognosis in patients undergoing TACE
|
Multivariate analysis
|
|
HR
|
95% CI
|
P
|
Tumor diameter (≥5/<5 cm)
|
6.783
|
1.511~30.445
|
0.012
|
TACE sessions (≥3/<3)
|
0.284
|
0.109~0.742
|
0.01
|
Liver cirrhosis (Yes/No)
|
6.446
|
1.993~20.847
|
0.002
|
Abbreviations: HR, hazard ratio; CI, confidence interval.
Cut-off value of tumor diameter
Tumor diameter is an independent risk factor that affects patient prognosis and survival after surgery. To evaluate the specific impact of tumor diameter on patient prognosis, ROC curves were drawn and the areas under the curve (AUC) were used to evaluate the predictive ability of these indicators on OS rate. The AUC for the association between tumor diameter and OS in the TACE group was 0.752 (95% CI 0.639~0.864, p=0.001), with the maximum value of the Jordan index being 0.466, The optimal cut-off point of tumor diameter predicting OS was 6.75 cm, which had a sensitivity of 81.0% and a specificity of 65.6% in predicting OS (Fig. 2).