Among patients undergoing major cardiac and non-cardiac surgery, one in ten patients developed CKD and only one third of patients developing CKD had a prior episode of early postoperative-AKI. However, where early postoperative-AKI was associated with CKD, rates increased significantly with both greater severity and duration of postoperative-AKI. Patients diagnosed by serum creatinine or both, urine output and creatinine KDIGO criteria, had the highest CKD rates. Moreover, early postoperative-AKI was a strong independent risk factor for subsequent CKD. Other risk factors for CKD were female sex, age, comorbidities (hypertension, atrial fibrillation, myocardial infarction, peripheral vascular disease), emergency procedures, perioperative nephrotoxic agents (intraoperative vancomycin and cyclosporine/ tacrolimus, postoperative aminoglycosides), and postoperative complications (pneumonia). Finally, among patients with preoperative CKD, progression of CKD was also more frequent in patients with early postoperative-AKI.
The findings of the EPIS-AKI study align with previous findings among hospitalized patients where CKD occurred in 11% of the patients (CKD stages 3 to 5) 16 and confirm the relationship between postoperative-AKI and CKD 17–21. However, a small recent study of general hospitalized CKD patients, rather than patients solely undergoing surgery, showed that the association between mild and moderate AKI and worsening subsequent kidney function was small 22. Our observations are consistent with the notion that AKI is a key driver for the development of CKD and that AKI and CKD are two interconnected syndromes in the perioperative setting 8. However, although early postoperative-AKI is a significant independent risk factor for CKD, our study also shows that patients undergoing major surgery are at risk for CKD even if they did not have an episode of early postoperative-AKI.
Among early postoperative-AKI associated CKD patients, the duration and severity of early postoperative-AKI were two key risk factors. Aligned with our findings, one retrospective study among elderly patients showed that AKI duration of more than seven days increased the risk of CKD 23. Another retrospective study found an odds ratio of 23.7 for CKD in patients with an AKI duration of more than seven days 24. However, the Acute Dialysis Quality Initiative (ADQI) proposed a standardized definition of persistent AKI based on the recovery of kidney function within 48h, which is consistent with the definition used in the EPIS-AKI study 15. Even using such a shorter 48-hour cut off point, however, our findings align with previous studies.
Nearly 8% of patients without early postoperative-AKI developed CKD. It is conceivable that AKI might have occurred after 72 hours postoperatively, as such data was not collected in the EPIS-AKI study. Subclinical (stage 1s) AKI, which is defined by a kidney damage without a functional loss (functional biomarkers serum creatinine and urine output are normal and damage biomarkers are elevated),25 might have also occurred and affected the development of CKD as suggested by previous studies 26–29.
In other studies, age, female sex, and hypertension have been associated with CKD 16. These risk factors were also found in EPIS-AKI study, but additionally perioperative modifiable risk factors were detected. Nephrotoxic agents are known risk factors for AKI 30,31 but, as shown here, also for CKD even in patients without previous AKI. Treatment with nephrotoxic medications should thus be carefully considered and, if possible, avoided. The implementation of a nephrotoxic drug stewardship could help prevent CKD as well as AKI 32. The fact that the postoperative application of NSAIDs and vancomycin was associated with lower rates of AKI is counterintuitive and might be explained by selection bias or that in such cases clinicians are alerted to the risks associated with these drugs and therefore modify their treatment.
STRENGTHS and LIMITATIONS
The strengths of this study are the largest cohort of patients studied to date examining progression of CKD postoperatively and the influence of early postoperative-AKI, the multinational setting, the multiple types of surgeries included, the detailed collection of data, the close monitoring for early post-operative AKI and the protocolized follow-up to determine the development of CKD. As such, this is the first international multicenter study of the epidemiology of postoperative CKD and of its association with early postoperative-AKI and its data provide novel insights.
We acknowledge several limitations. First, the definition of CKD was based on a single assessment of kidney function after 90 days. 33 Thus, it remains uncertain whether such reduced kidney function was reflective of a steady state. In addition, it remains unknown what factors that might have occurred between hospital discharge and day 90 may have impacted the incidence of CKD. Second, some surgical procedures were underrepresented, potentially resulting in a selection bias nor did we collect the granularity of all surgical procedures within speciality. Third, we only assessed patients for early postoperative-AKI and are unable to comment on whether AKI, or indeed AKD, developed thereafter at any time between day 3 and day 90. Furthermore, we did not measure other biomarkers other than urine output and serum creatinine which may have been elevated in the 72 hours post-surgery, stage 1S, which could have been associated with CKD development as this has been associated with a decline in functional renal reserve. Fourth, we only used the serum creatinine levels to estimate the GFR and the presence of CKD but did not consider other markers of CKD such as proteinuria as a criterion of CKD definition. Finally, the findings of this study may not be generalizable as the risk of developing CKD may vary between the different countries, healthcare systems, and types and complexity of surgery.