To better understand the prognostic role of various factors in esophageal cancer, this study recruited 205 ESCC patients and simultaneously analyzed the effects of tumor features, clinicopathologic parameters, nutritional status, inflammatory condition and treatment modality on the short-term mortality of ESCC patients. Our results demonstrated that histological differentiation grade, having undergone surgery and radiotherapy were prognostic factors for 3-month and 6-month mortality rates.
Short-term mortality is one of suitable assessment of treatment response and treatment-related complications. In the current study, poor differentiation grade independently contributed to higher short-term mortality, mostly due to cancer progression. We, thus, proposed that histologic differentiation grade is likely related with ESCC aggressiveness and its responsiveness to treatment. The expression of certain genes governing ESCC differentiation may support this [26, 27]. Activin A, a member of the transforming growth factor β superfamily, is highly correlated with differentiation degree. Surgically resected ESCC patients expressing higher tissue Activin A level had more features of poor histological differentiation and lower recurrence-free rate [27]. A member of the E2 promoter binding protein family called E2F5 is also involved with ESCC differentiation. Poorly differentiated ESCC patients who underwent curative resection had a higher tissue expression of E2F5 and a worse prognosis [26]. Tissue hypoxia may drive tumor cells to be poorly differentiated through hypoxia-inducible factor (HIF) activation [28]. This activation process decreases KLF-4 (Krüppel-like factor 4) expression, which is substantially associated with poor differentiation of ESCC [29]. Ping et al further found ESCC patients with HIF-1α overexpression failed to respond to CCRT [30]. Taken together, in ESCC patients, differentiation-associated genes that coordinate tissue hypoxia tend to induce poor differentiation of tumor cells and make them less responsive to treatment.
Surgery currently remains as the standard treatment for ESCC. Cochrane meta-analysis [31] found that the short-term mortality rates were lower in the non-surgical group compared with the surgical group in a fixed-effect model, but it was not significant in a random effects model and; therefore, CCRT might be equivalent to surgery when analyzing survival of ESCC patients. Our results, nonetheless, showed that a significant proportion of early-stage (stage I and II) patients underwent surgery and near half of the advanced stage (stage III and IV) patients had CCRT. Surgery, and not CCRT, was an independent prognostic factor for short-term mortality in ESCC patient. The analysis performed in these studies, including ours, is at a high risk of bias due to the heterogeneity of the patients studied, the varied treatment schedules, and the different endpoint assessment [31]. Even though salvage surgery after CCRT is comparable with neoadjuvant CCRT followed by surgery, the residual cancer cells that had been treated with definitive CCRT seemed to be more biologically aggressive, leading to a poorer survival compared with recurrent cancer [32]. Therefore, well-designed trials enrolling patients with homogenous clinical features and using the same treatment protocol to study the effect of surgery versus non-surgical treatment on short-term mortality are necessary; otherwise, the prognostic factors based on current evidence must be interpreted and taken with caution.
Some study limitations and intriguing observations merit further discussion. This was a retrospective, single-institution study; therefore, inherent selection bias is inevitable, and data were not necessarily collected from the same date, although most were taken within 2 weeks from diagnosis. Due to the limited number of cases, we were unable to analyze the factors pertaining to the mortality outcomes of different subgroups such as surgery alone, preoperative CCRT followed by surgery, and definitive CCRT. Further, poorly differentiated ESCC may have a differential response to CCRT. Since radiation sensitivity is high among undifferentiated cells that exhibit high mitotic activity and stay in the active developmental stage [33], poorly differentiated ESCC are more susceptible to radiation [12]. In contrast, tumor cells tend to be poorly differentiated under hypoxic conditions, which makes cells less vulnerable to radiation and chemotherapy via HIF activation [28, 30, 34, 35]. Hence, the effect of poorly differentiated ESCC on short-term mortality rates may be the result of their responsiveness to CCRT.