Bibliography Review of Recent Definition Research on Myanmar Southwest Monsoon

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Bibliography Review of Recent Definition Research on Myanmar Southwest Monsoon

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The monsoon system determines the seasonal climate patterns over most parts of Asia, mainly the Indian sub-continent, Southeast Asia, and large parts of East Asia. Research on the monsoon has a history dating back more than a hundred years, since the 1890s. This review analyzes the previous research about Asian monsoons, especially in Myanmar regions, that has been published internationally. Based on the Scopus database, bibliometric analysis was also conducted to explore research trends in monsoon rainfall studies. The accurate determination of onset and withdrawal dates has implications for various sectors. However, determining precise onset and withdrawal dates poses challenges due to interannual and spatial variability. The Myanmar Southwest Monsoon (MSwM) index is the most popular tool to determine the onset and withdrawal dates of the southwest monsoon over its regions. Advancements in satellite remote sensing, climate modeling, and data assimilation techniques provide opportunities for refining monsoon intensity indices. Additionally, efforts to better understand the interactions between the monsoon and climate teleconnections can contribute to improved monsoon intensity assessment. The MSwM is a separate system from the major South Asian monsoon system, and its cycle of seasons is closely connected to the seasonal cycle in mainland Indochina. The Tibetan Plateau's thermal influence accentuates the meridional land-sea thermal contrast and the zonal land-sea thermal contrast, making it important to monitor and anticipate monsoons. The MSwM is outcome of interactions between the earth, ocean, atmosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere, and cryosphere. Thus, it has a significant impact on the region's plantation, bio-earth, chemistry, economics, and society. The current coupled model of the land-sea-atmosphere system has limitations, so advancement in the study of models is highly anticipated. Research on this topic aids in regulating human activity, recognizing harmony between people and nature, and safeguarding the human habitat.

Atmospheric Sciences

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Atmospheric Science

Myanmar Monsoon

MSwM

The monsoon system determines the seasonal climate patterns over most parts of Asia, mainly the Indian sub-continent, and over Southeast Asia and large parts of East Asia. Directly, it influences the lives of nearly one-third of the world population and indirectly the lives of nearly three-quarters of the world population. Myanmar is located in the South Asian monsoon region, therefore, research on monsoon has always been the highlight by Asian meteorologists, especially Indian researchers Fig. 1. However, there is little research about the Monsoon system in Myanmar. Among them, the research on the Myanmar monsoon has a history of more than a hundred years since the 1890s. The meteorologists Blanford, (1889) and K. R. Ramanathan (1939) are the pioneer researchers of the Indian and Myanmar monsoon otherwise the South Asian monsoon system and they explained the arrival of summer monsoon over India and Myanmar. Also among the very few local researchers Tun Yin (1949) was a pioneer and he studied a synoptic-aerologic onset of the summer monsoon wind over Myanmar. After this, there is no both local and international, researchers did not study this region until to 2000s. However, some researchers worked on the synoptic scale Asian monsoon system including the Myanmar region. Popular scholars such as C.S Ramage and N. Sen Roy from India, Bin Wang from China, and Jun Matsumoto from Japan were made the method development to study Myanmar monsoon (Ramage, 1952; Sen Roy & Kaur, 2000; Takio Murakami, 2002; B. Wang & Ho, 2002; Zhang et al., 2002). Although there will be local research works about the Myanmar monsoon system published only locally these never came out at the international published references level. After the 2000s, the local scholar Tun Lwin, Z. M. M. Sein, Ohnmar Htway, and K. T. Oo introduced and published new methods to study the Myanmar monsoon system (Htway & Matsumoto, 2011; Lwin, 2002; Oo, 2023; Sein & Zhi, 2016). Myanmar meteorologists have recently achieved significant advancements in their studies of the Myanmar monsoon's formation mechanisms, onset features, and multiscale variability.

The Scopus database covers a wide range of topics and is a major repository of peer-reviewed publications. The important keywords required to search were “Atmospheric Science”, “Myanmar”, and “Monsoon” with the years from 1996 to 2022. These keywords were searched by adding Advanced Search by including “AND” and “OR” conditions in the Scopus database. There were 948 results for the said “Myanmar” keywords in Earth and Planetary Science field. The search was further refined by adding the word “monsoon” and the number of publications then found was 281. These were used for carrying out bibliometric analysis.

Bibliometric analysis was undertaken to explore the research trends in monsoon rainfall study with the use of a systematic manner. This analysis made it simpler to comprehend the author contributions from various countries, organizations, journals, publications, etc. Initial keyword research concentrated on trends in searches, publishing types, and publications. Additionally, network analysis, geographic region statistical analysis, and analysis of subject areas were done. To conduct a search, it was necessary to use the keywords "Atmospheric Science" with the sub keyword "South Asian," "Rainfall," "Myanmar," "Climatology," and "Monsoon." These terms were looked for in the reliable Scopus database using the advanced search. Table 1 lists a few crucial keywords needed for the investigation because there are many reference keywords connected to atmospheric science topics.

Table 1

Collection of important keywords
Keywords	Number of Publications
South Asian	18925
Rainfall	1598
Myanmar	2658
JJAS	1181
Climatology	358
Forecasting	502
Monsoon	281

The keyword "Myanmar" was included in the search to include research articles of journals since 66.8% of publications in the field of Earth and Planetary Science are written in English. Researchers have published 9.5% of papers in journals as review papers, 11.7% of papers in conferences, and 4.5% are available as books Fig. 2. As is evident, important papers are presented as journal articles. Table 2 shows the percentage breakdown of the publications by source type.

Table 2

Type of Publication by keywords “Myanmar” for Earth and Planetary Science field
Publication Type	Number of Publications	% of Total
Research articles	685	66.8
Review articles	97	9.5
Conference	120	11.7
Book chapters	46	4.5

The Scopus database's refined keyword search turned up 948 papers during the years 1998 to 2022. Trends in the number of publications are further investigated in the results. All magazine seminars, book series, and book publications were considered. Figure 3 displays the graph illustrating the trend in the number of publications. Figure 3 of the graph shows an up-trend in the number of publications for the study of atmospheric science.

3.1.1 Geographical Region-Based Analysis

We analyzed the nations with the highest rates of scientific publication and nearby nations to Myanmar to analyze the regional contributions to the study of "atmospheric science" by country. Figure 4 shows the various nations' contributions to atmospheric science study.

During 1996–2022, only 39 papers relative to atmospheric science are out from Myanmar, among the 219 countries that contributed to this research. These are followed by 102700 papers are of the United States (US) researchers are out and 50421 papers from China were counted. Since atmospheric science research is a phenomenon that is typically seen in each nation, it makes sense that 38% of contributions come from the US, 34% from China, and 10% or so each from the United Kingdom, India, and Japan as by orders. In contrast, Myanmar has only contributed less than 1%, leaving the remainder as an undefined local contribution. Figure 5 displays the average percentage of articles contributed by each of the six countries.

As deep into the search as the word "monsoon" was added, 281 results were found. Years were restricted for the thorough search, and results were only provided for the years 2000 to 2022. A few local studies were conducted over 20 years and published 281 times for the Monsoon study (Fig. 6).

3.1.2 Analysis of the subject area

Environmental science, engineering, earth and planetary sciences, and computer science are just a few of the 406 subjects that made up Myanmar's science paper. In 2022, these science fields are expected to provide the biggest contributions to research, in that order. Figure 7a. represents the subject-wise research contribution through a pie chart. The subject “Atmospheric Science” in Fig. 7 includes 7 papers published in Myanmar in 2022.

The monsoon circulation is a seasonal climate phenomenon characterized by pronounced changes in wind patterns and associated rainfall. The beginning and end of the monsoon are separate occurrences that represent the establishment and dispersal of the monsoon system. Determining the precise dates of these events is crucial for numerous sectors, including agriculture, water resource management, and disaster preparedness.

4.1 Previous studies on Myanmar monsoon by specific objective

Monsoons are large-scale climate systems characterized by seasonal wind reversals that result in distinct dry and wet seasons. This section provides an overview of monsoons and their global significance, setting the stage for the discussion of mechanisms involved in their formation.

4.1.1 Land-Sea Temperature Gradients:

Land-sea temperature gradients play a fundamental role in driving monsoon circulation. Differential heating between land and ocean surfaces creates a pressure gradient, leading to the development of onshore winds during the monsoon season. This section explores the thermodynamic processes and associated atmospheric dynamics associated with land-sea temperature gradients (Chhin et al., 2020; Ren et al., 2017; Satyanarayana et al., 2020).

4.1.2 Large-scale patterns of atmospheric circulation:

Large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns like the Hadley Cell, Walker Circulation, and Rossby waves have an impact on the monsoons. These circulation systems interact with monsoonal flows, modulating the strength and spatial extent of monsoon precipitation. The review examines the role of these circulation patterns and their impact on monsoon formation (Giddings et al., 2020; Oo, 2021; S. Y. Wang et al., 2013; Yan et al., 2021).

4.1.3 Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions:

Monsoon systems are interconnected with global climate patterns through teleconnections. Oceanic processes, that is sea surface temperatures (SST), play a significant role in monsoon development. The coupling between the ocean and the atmosphere, including phenomena like El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), influences monsoon intensity and spatial distribution of rainfall. This section discusses the influence of ocean-atmosphere interactions on monsoon dynamics (Oo, 2022; Sein & Zhi, 2016; Zaw et al., 2020).

4.1.4 Topographic Influences:

Regional topography, including mountains and coastlines, can significantly influence monsoon systems. Mountain ranges act as barriers, enhancing orographic lift and modifying precipitation patterns. Coastlines contribute to the development of sea and land breezes, impacting local monsoon circulations. This section explores the role of topography in shaping monsoon behavior (D’Arrigo et al., 2011; United Nations, 2020; Zin et al., 2017).

4.1.5 Advances in Modelling and Predictability:

Advancements in modeling techniques, including numerical weather prediction and climate models, have improved our understanding of monsoon mechanisms and enhanced prediction capabilities. This section highlights the progress in modeling and the challenges associated with monsoon predictability (Oo, 2021; Pattnayak et al., 2017; Satyanarayana et al., 2020; Sein et al., 2022)

4.1.6 Implications for Society and the Environment:

Monsoons have significant socio-economic and environmental implications, impacting agriculture, water resources, ecosystems, and human livelihoods. Understanding the mechanisms driving monsoon formation is crucial for managing these impacts and developing effective adaptation strategies (Khaing et al., 2019; Slagle, 2014; Taft & Evers, 2016; Zaw et al., 2020, 2021).

The monsoon onset index is a key metric used to identify the initiation of the monsoon season. Various criteria and parameters have been employed to define the onset, such as rainfall thresholds, wind patterns, and changes in atmospheric conditions. A monsoon trough that was located in the eastern regions of India in winter had moved westward by summer, according to Yin's (1949) analysis of the average 8-kilometer summer and winter flow patterns over Myanmar. His analysis of the summer monsoon's arrival in 1946 reveals that it moves quite quickly and coincides with India's monsoon season's "burst." The Himalayan mountain complex's influence on the long-wave pattern, together with seasonal variations in the circumpolar jet stream's latitude in the northern hemisphere, is attributed to the migration of the trough (Fig. 8). The arrival of the southwest monsoon current over Myanmar coincides with the onset time of the ISM over the Indian subcontinent.

Feng et al., (2020) developed a very new onset index called the "Daily Monsoon Trough Index" (DMTI) that considers the zonal wind component and the location of the monsoon trough to determine the onset date. Zhang et al., (2002) use only the rainfall index to define the monsoon onset and display the 5-day running mean climatology of the rainfall index for 46 years due to the reason that the wind patterns over Indochina are very complicated. Over Indochina, the dry season starts from November to late April, and the wet season from early May to mid-October. A dramatic increase in daily rainfall from 2 to 6 mm day 21 between late April and mid-May marks the change from a dry to a rainy season. The research suggests that the arrival of the monsoon across the Indochina Peninsula is fundamentally influenced by tropical influences.

The Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH), Myanmar, currently defines the onset dates of the summer monsoon as the day of the very first three consecutive rainfall days with 2.5 mm per day amounts or greater in various locations throughout Myanmar (Aung & Thoung, 1985). Based on this definition, Lwin, (2002), utilizes the use of the frequency distribution of long-term onset dates, Lwin (2002) suggests a pre-southwest monsoon between mid-April and mid-May, a southwest monsoon between mid-May and mid-October, a post-southwest monsoon between mid-October and mid-November, a cool and dry northeast monsoon season between November and March, and a hot summer season between March and April (Fig. 9). According to Lwin, (2002), The summer monsoon advances in four different regions of Myanmar according to the climatological onset dates: on May 5 in southern Myanmar, which is located between latitudes 9 and 15 °N; on May 15 in the deltaic region, which is located between 15 and 17 °N; on May 20 in the eastern hills, central plane, and western coasts of Myanmar, which are located between 17 and 23.5 °N; and on June 1 in northern Myanmar, which is located between 23.5 and 28 °N.

The weakness of this definition is that it relies on the daily rainfall totals recorded at each station, which means it must disregard any precipitation that occurred before April 25 because it is not monsoon rain. Due to insolation before the monsoon, some areas of Myanmar may see rain from thunderstorm formation by South China Sea typhoons or western disturbances from Indiandhat some stations may have rainfall quantities above 2.54 mm on occasion even if the rainfall duration is short. According to Sen Roy & Kaur, (2000)'s study, there are different monsoon rain zones and a centrally located, noticeably dry zone that receives less than rainfall 680 mm per year and shorter than 50 wet days (Fig. 10).

Using the onset date isochrones map from 1967 adapted for India and Myanmar, DMH has historically identified four distinct zones of Myanmar. (Moe, 2002). There weren't many rain gauge stations in Myanmar in 1967, so those four regions should also be given another look in light of the current rainfall stations.

Thus, the commencement of the climatological monsoon over Myanmar was determined by Zhang et al., (2002) and Htway & Matsumoto, (2011) using mean or average pentad rainfall data. The onset date is determined using this method, which takes into account the cumulative rainfall and its temporal dispersion (Fig. 12). However, this time the author took topography into account and demonstrated the onset time of the southwest summer monsoon in Myanmar by two parts. The onset date of the monsoon season in southern and central regions of Myanmar on May 18 and in northern Myanmar on May 28 was proposed by Htway & Matsumoto, (2011).

Thus Oo, (2023) suggested combining wind and rainfall with other characteristics to create the MSwM change point index, a non-threshold-based index was first proposed (Fig. 13). To confirm the climatological monsoon beginning dates and regions for Myanmar, the climatological structure of several parameters from late April to early June will also be shown and examined. This should include both the observed data and the re-analysis data.

From the modeling insight, Mie Sein et al., (2015) study characterizes the inception, northern limit, and progression of southwest monsoon in Myanmar using synoptic maps generated through a 10-year simulation by using the model Fig. 14. This was the first work to examine the model analysis of the Myanmar monsoon and its goal was to describe the onset dates of the southwest summer monsoon over Myanmar. The Regional Climate Model (RegCM3) was run for ten years to reproduce the meteorological fields focused on the season from April to July (2000–2009).

5.1 Applications and Challenges

Accurate determination of onset and withdrawal dates has significant implications for various sectors. In agriculture, knowledge of the monsoon onset date helps in planning sowing operations and crop selection, while the withdrawal date is crucial for harvesting decisions. Water resource management relies on the monsoon cycle, and accurate predictions of these dates assist in reservoir management and water allocation.

However, determining precise onset and withdrawal dates poses several challenges. The monsoon system exhibits considerable interannual and spatial variability that makes it difficult to generalize onset and withdrawal patterns. Additionally, the selection of appropriate indices and thresholds varies across different regions, leading to variations in the determination of these events. The monsoon index is a critical parameter in quantitatively describing and studying monsoons. Researchers proposed many monsoon indexes to capture the spirit of the monsoon. To define the Myanmar southwest monsoon (MSwM) index, some factors, for example, differential heating between land and sea, rainfall intensity, meridional wind, and zonal horizontal wind shear regionally averaged over mainland Indochina were considered in previous research (Htway & Matsumoto, 2011; Oo, 2023; Sen Roy & Kaur, 2000; B. Wang & Ho, 2002). It is well known that the meridional cross-wind is a crucial aspect of the MSwM. However, the zonal wind also plays an important role, as strong zonal winds over mid and high latitudes can obstruct in shifting and strength of monsoon intensity. The pentad rainfall intensity is the most popular tool to determine the onset and withdrawal dates of southwest monsoons over its regions (Tun & Division, 2017). Considering two-dimensional wind vectors, two separate modes of the MSwM had been identified (Lwin, 2000), resulting in a complete understanding of the MSwM.

Advancements in satellite remote sensing, climate modeling, and data assimilation techniques provide opportunities for refining monsoon intensity indices. Incorporating additional variables, such as humidity, cloud cover, and moisture convergence, may enhance the accuracy and reliability of these indices. Additionally, efforts to better understand the interactions between the monsoon and climate teleconnections can contribute to improved monsoon intensity assessment.

The fundamental scientific challenge in the study of monsoons continues to be how to statistically define the variation of onset and withdrawal dates of the MSwM and its interannual variability. We expect to use a simple and effective index to represent the intensity and variability of monsoons. The Indian Ocean Dipole and El Nino Southern Oscillation index is the best instance employing one parameter to describe a complex phenomenon.
An appropriate monsoon index helps establish associations between monsoon variability and the inner and outer forcing factors, in the search for correlations between monsoon variability, other circulation systems, and climate variability, and in the objective assessment of the ability of numerical models to replicate monsoon variability. Although many monsoon indexes have had some influence thus far, they are hardly all-inclusive. The MSwM regions' position between the West Northern Pacific Summer Monsoon (WNPSM) and Indian Monsoon (ISM) is the primary issue. It spans a latitude range of 10 to 30 and is greatly impacted by tropical and mid-latitude regions. As a result, selecting the summer monsoon index for Myanmar is substantially more challenging than selecting ISM or WNPSM. Since the circulation intensity and rainfall totals in this monsoon region are "distributed" rather than "uniform," indices created using various sub-areas and criteria lack "comparability" and can even produce contradictory results. We contend that for academics to communicate using a "single language," a "common area" and "common parameter" should be used to describe Myanmar's southwest summer monsoon index, which can reflect both wind and rain.
A scientific issue that receives little attention is the fundamental nature of MSwM and how it interacts with the tropical monsoon. As was previously stated, both the ISM and WNPSM have a high influence on the MSwM region and interact with one another to directly affect large-scale flooding and drought in Myanmar. A tropical monsoon, however, exactly what is it? Or what characterizes the tropical monsoon? There are typically two misconceptions: one is based on geography, in that the monsoon that occurs in South Asia's subtropical regions is known as the "South Asian monsoon (SAM)". ; The other classifies South Asia's tropical monsoon's south-to-northward expansion as SAM. While the MSwM monsoon may operate as an independent driving component, we contend that the meridional land-sea heat contrast in mainland Indochina is the primary driving force that the heat disparity between the Asian mainland continent, including the plateau, the western Pacific, and the north Indian Ocean, is regarded to be the primary cause of the seasonal circulation. If there was no land-sea contrast between the Asian continent and oceans, the subtropical high belt would not break, and the Monsoon trough belt would not extend and shift. We may imagine that the south-to-northward progression of these belts is the outcome of coordination and interaction between the ISM and the WNPSM monsoon. Therefore, the substance of both monsoons must be carefully examined, and their interaction with MSwM variation will improve the prediction of floods and drought in Myanmar.
What components make up the MSwM if it is a separate system from the major South Asian monsoon system? What about the cycle of the seasons? When was the MSwM started and when did it end? It is a scientific issue that merits investigation because it is intimately connected to the seasonal cycle in mainland Indochina. The Tibetan Plateau's thermal influence accentuates the meridional land-sea thermal contrast (between the Indian Ocean and the Asian mainland continent) as well as the zonal land-sea thermal contrast (Asian continent and the Pacific). The plateau increases the sensitivity and forward motion of the seasonal shift of thermal contrast, particularly as an elevated heat source (or cold source). In order to monitor and anticipate monsoons, the plateau is crucial and sensitive. Therefore, research on the plateau is crucial.
The tropical summer monsoon rain belt is situated on its forward side, thus as it advances north, the summer monsoon does as well. The summer monsoon's controlling region receives significantly less rainfall; as a result, the shifting of the rain belt is directly correlated with the activity of the summer monsoon's forward side. Hereby the research on monsoon trough otherwise Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), is also a meaningful problem.
The MSwM region is also the outcome of interactions between the earth, ocean, atmosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere, and cryosphere. The monsoon's changing pattern and variability have a significant impact on the region's plantation, bio-earth, chemistry, economics, and society. Therefore, it is important to include monsoons in the coupled land-sea-atmosphere system and understand their characteristics and dynamics by looking at how various spheres, levels, systems, and sizes interact.
The national economic and social development depends heavily on the seasonal prediction of monsoon activities, however, the current coupled model of the land-sea-atmosphere has numerous limitations in this regard. To improve the ability to anticipate the MSwM, the Tibetan plateau must be accurately described in the model, the land-atmosphere interaction must be properly introduced, and physical processes must be reasonably parameterized. Therefore, advancement in the study of models is highly anticipated. The future of the Asian monsoon might be significantly impacted by changes in land cover and atmospheric components brought on by human activity on both a regional and global scale. Research on this topic aids in regulating human activity, recognizing the harmony between people and nature, and safeguarding the human habitat. In conclusion, the key objectives in the study of monsoon in the future continue to be the processes of fluctuation of MSwM, the mechanisms of MSwM impacting weather and climate in Myanmar, particularly flood and drought, and the theories and methods of predicting MSwM.

Author Statement

Kyaw Than Oo: Conceptualization, Methodology, Data curation, Writing- Original draft preparation. Visualization, Investigation.

Chen Haishan: Supervision and Reviewing.

Conflicts of Interest

I declared that there is no potential conflict of interest with any of the following statements.

1. For any component of the submitted work, the author received no cash or services from a third party (government, commercial, private foundation, etc). (Including but not limited to grants, data monitoring board, study design, manuscript preparation, statistical analysis, etc.).

2. The author is not affiliated with any entity that has a direct or indirect financial interest in the manuscript's subject matter.

3. The author was involved in the following aspects of the project: (a) idea and design, or data analysis and interpretation; (b) authoring the article or critically reviewing it for essential intellectual content; and (c) approval of the final version.

4. This work has not been submitted to and is not currently being reviewed by, any other journal or publishing venue.

5. The author has no patents that are broadly relevant to the work, whether proposed, pending, or issued.

6. The author received no payment or services from a third party for any aspect of the submitted work (government, commercial, private foundation, etc). (including but not limited to grants, data monitoring board, study design, manuscript preparation, statistical analysis, etc.).

Funding Statement

This research and publishing are being carried out using self-funding.

Acknowledgment

The author expresses special thanks to all authors of previous works and all Professors who approve and support this review and the Nanjing University of Information Science for support to come out this research. I would also like to extend my gratitude to Professor Haishan Chen from Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, for supervising this paper and for others, support during this work. The author acknowledges heartfelt thanks to the scientists of Scopus for supporting datasets and the Department of Meteorology and Hydrology for supporting the data of Myanmar. Additionally, the author would like to thank three reviewers for their constructive and insightful reviews and comments which have significantly helped to improve the manuscript.

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Bibliography Review of Recent Definition Research on Myanmar Southwest Monsoon

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Abstract

Figures

1 Introduction

2 Data collection

3 Bibliometric Review of Monsoon Research

3.1.1 Geographical Region-Based Analysis

3.1.2 Analysis of the subject area

4 Description of monsoon and monsoon indices

4.1 Previous studies on Myanmar monsoon by specific objective

4.1.1 Land-Sea Temperature Gradients:

4.1.2 Large-scale patterns of atmospheric circulation:

4.1.3 Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions:

4.1.4 Topographic Influences:

4.1.5 Advances in Modelling and Predictability:

4.1.6 Implications for Society and the Environment:

5 Index of Monsoon Onset and Withdrawal

5.1 Applications and Challenges

6 Conclusion and outlook

Declarations

References

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