Predictive Model for Oral Mucositis of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Patients Receiving Chemo-radiotherapy
Purpose
To analyze risk factors for severe acute oral mucositis of nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients (NPCs) receiving chemo-radiotherapy and build predictive models.
Methods
270 NPCs receiving radical chemo-radiotherapy were included. Oral mucosa structure was contoured by oral cavity contour (OCC) and mucosa surface contour (MSC) methods. Oral mucositis during treatment was divided into severe mucositis group (grade 3) and non-severe mucositis group (grade = 1, 2) according to RTOG criteria. Statistical analyses were completed by IBM SPSS Statistics 25.0 and IBM SPSS Modeler 18.0.
Results
Intermediate to high Vx (%) were strongly associated with severe oral mucositis (V40-V70(%)). Multivariate analysis showed that V55 (%) was the most important predictor for severe oral mucositis followed by overweight and retropharyngeal lymph node region irradiation (RLN). Two predictive models were built based on these two methods. AUC of OCC and MSC based model in training set were 0.786 both. Higher AUC of MSC-base model was observed in validation set when compared to OCC (0.721 vs. 0.622).
Conclusion
Dosimetric parameter is the most important predictive factors for severe oral mucositis in nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients during chemo-radiation. Of the two models generated in this study, performance of MSC-based model in validation data is mildly better than OCC.
Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3
This is a list of supplementary files associated with this preprint. Click to download.
Posted 10 Jun, 2020
Predictive Model for Oral Mucositis of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Patients Receiving Chemo-radiotherapy
Posted 10 Jun, 2020
Purpose
To analyze risk factors for severe acute oral mucositis of nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients (NPCs) receiving chemo-radiotherapy and build predictive models.
Methods
270 NPCs receiving radical chemo-radiotherapy were included. Oral mucosa structure was contoured by oral cavity contour (OCC) and mucosa surface contour (MSC) methods. Oral mucositis during treatment was divided into severe mucositis group (grade 3) and non-severe mucositis group (grade = 1, 2) according to RTOG criteria. Statistical analyses were completed by IBM SPSS Statistics 25.0 and IBM SPSS Modeler 18.0.
Results
Intermediate to high Vx (%) were strongly associated with severe oral mucositis (V40-V70(%)). Multivariate analysis showed that V55 (%) was the most important predictor for severe oral mucositis followed by overweight and retropharyngeal lymph node region irradiation (RLN). Two predictive models were built based on these two methods. AUC of OCC and MSC based model in training set were 0.786 both. Higher AUC of MSC-base model was observed in validation set when compared to OCC (0.721 vs. 0.622).
Conclusion
Dosimetric parameter is the most important predictive factors for severe oral mucositis in nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients during chemo-radiation. Of the two models generated in this study, performance of MSC-based model in validation data is mildly better than OCC.
Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3