Recruitment of participants is the backbone of every clinical trial and has long been the Achilles heel of investigators(1). When clinical trials fail to recruit to time or target, they waste time, effort, and money, cause reputational damage, with potentially serious ethical implications(2). Failure to reach the sample size required to achieve the primary outcome causes results to be much less reliable or even untenable. Underpowered trials waste a significant amount of public funds each year. In 2014 the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) invested £289.6 million in research programmes across the United Kingdom (UK)(3), a substantial proportion being spent on randomised controlled trials (RCTs), which represent the gold standard research design for evaluating clinical interventions(4). This increased to £645.9 million in 2021(3).
A review of the NIHR Health Technology Assessment (HTA) and Medical Research Council (MRC) RCTs in the UK from 2004 to 2016 found that just over half (56%) of these trials achieved their original target sample size and just over three quarters (79%) achieved at least 80% of the required sample size(4). This is only a marginal improvement on 31% of HTA/MRC-funded RCTs achieving the intended sample size in a similar review from 1994 to 2002, with 78% reaching at least 80% of the sample size(5). Over half (53%) of these studies were awarded an extension, requiring more time and sometimes more money to recruit to target(5). These statistics are not much better in the United States where 11% of sites fail to recruit a single patient, 48% of sites underperform, 80% of trials fail to meet their enrolment timelines, with timelines for phase II-IV trials usually doubling and on average only half of all patients screened complete clinical trials(6) .
This phenomenon is nothing new. In 1979 Louis Lasagna, the father of modern pharmacology, observed that the number of patients available to join a study drops by 90% on the day the trial starts and re-appear the day a trial end (22). This is commonly known as the “Lasagna Law”. Given these figures, why are investigators still so overly optimistic about their recruiting potential? Why are funders not doing more to assess the feasibility and validity of the grant proposals they award?
A common tool often employed during the clinical trial set up phase is a site selection and feasibility assessment. The purpose of which is to assist sponsors to: 1) determine whether to work with a particular site and investigator based on their experience, 2) establish site demographics, 3) measure infrastructure, 4) assess readiness, 5) set a realistic recruitment target based on the number of likely suitable participants, and 6) discuss and map potential barriers not only to recruitment but also for trial delivery(7). Thus, site selection and feasibility should allow the sponsor to determine the number of suitable sites required to meet the recruitment target and protocol objectives within the awarded time and budget. Unfortunately, the use of such tools often comes too late in the lifecycle of trial development when the sample size, primary outcome, budget, and timescales have already been set, and funding awarded. Adding additional sites to meet shortfalls in recruitment not only increases costs but places additional burden on trial management, data management and monitoring staff, with potentially significant delays(8). As a result, trial managers are often left with trials that are completely unfeasible within the allocated time and budget and thus are doomed to fail, regardless of the multiple strategies and incentives they may use to bolster recruitment.
Recruitment to RCTs has been identified as a priority by funders and investigators, with research into methods to boost recruitment being nominated as the top priority by UK clinical trials unit directors in a Delphi survey in 2014(9). Although recruitment (and retention) are often hot topics of discussion amongst triallists, the evidence base for barriers to recruitment and successful strategies for overcoming them is still lacking(10).
The UK National Health Service (NHS) is uniquely positioned to perform large scale, multi-centre clinical trials. The clinical trial landscape in the UK consists of specialist clinical trials units (CTUs), which have been set up with a specific remit to design, conduct, analyse and publish clinical trials and other well-designed studies. They have the capability to provide specialist expert statistical, epidemiological, and other methodological advice and coordination to undertake successful clinical trials. A UK clinical research council (CRC) registration process has been developed, recognising CTUs of high quality and experience conducting multi-centre clinical trials(11).
In addition, clinical research networks (CRNs) have been established across the UK with the goal of providing the required infrastructure to support high quality clinical studies across all areas of disease and clinical need, for the benefit of patients. They provide critical resources and support to the NHS, such as clinical research nurses and other staff to match patients with appropriate study participation opportunities and carry out the clinical duties required by the studies. CRN funding also covers costs related to study delivery such as radiological imaging(11). Principal investigators (PIs) are salaried staff, thus trials in the UK generally do not receive a payment for each person recruited to a study (payment per recruit). Rather the CRN provides funding for research nurses to undertake recruitment activities.
Clinical commissioning groups (CCGs) were created in the UK following the Health and Social Care Act in 2012. They are clinically-led statutory NHS bodies responsible for the planning and commissioning of health care services for their local area and getting the best possible health outcomes for their local population(12). The costs of non-commercial research are met by different funders depending on the type of cost. Guidance from the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) for the Attribution of Costs for Research and Development (AcoRD) sets out the principles for determining who pays for the different research costs. Treatment costs are the care costs that would continue to be incurred if the patient care service in question continued to be provided following the end of the research study. This cost is usually covered by the service provider or NHS. The difference between the research prescribed treatment costs and the costs of the existing standard treatment is referred to as the excess treatment cost (ETC). ETCs are paid for by CCGs. With a national health service and embedded clinical trial’s infrastructure to support high quality research, why is recruitment still such a major challenge for most UK trials?
The purpose of this study was to evaluate site feasibility procedures as a tool for predicting site recruitment potential. We compare the predicted recruitment rates identified during site feasibility assessments with the actual recruitment rates in a recent major research programme including three RCTs. We describe the strategies used to improve recruitment and whether they were deemed successful.