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Research article
Zahra Sharafi
Zahedan University of Medical Sciences
Corresponding Author
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Background: Multiple Sclerosis (MS) remains to be a public health challenge, due to its unknown biological mechanism and clinical impact on young people. The prevalence of this disease in Iran is reported to be 5.3 to 74.28 per 100000 cases. Due to high prevalence of this disease in Fars province, this study aimed to assess the distribution of MS in this region in southern Iran by evaluating its covariates.
Method: Data from 5,468 patients diagnosed with MS were collected, according to the McDonald’s criteria, which was reported by the MS Society of Fars from 1991 until 2016. Bayesian spatio-temporal models was also used to describe MS incidence in Fars province. We also investigated the association between overall MS incidence rate and the overall percentage of vitamin D intake, smokers in the population as well as the overall percentage of people with normal BMI as well as alcohol consumption in a population from 1991 until 2016 by Besag, York and Mollie's (BYM) model.
Results: County-level crude incidence rates ranged from 0.22 to 11.31 cases per 100,000 population. The highest relative risk was estimated at 1.8 in the city of Shiraz, the capital of Fars province while the lowest relative risk was estimated at 0.11 in Zarindasht County in southern Fars. The percentages of vitamin D3 intake was significantly associated with the incidence of MS. Although 1% increase in Vitamin D3 intake is associated with 2% decrease in the risk of MS, 1% increase in smoking is associated with 16% increase in the risk of MS, respectively.
Conclusion: Spatial analysis of MS showed low incidence rate of this disease in the south and south east of Fars province, which is due to the effect of different covariates. As suggested by previous studies, vitamin D and smoking among all covaiates might be associated with high incidence of MS.
Keywords
Bayesian spatio-temporal model, Multiple sclerosis, Incidence rate
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Editorial decision: Minor revision
On 10 Dec, 2020
Editor assigned
On 02 Dec, 2020
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On 02 Dec, 2020
Editor invited
On 02 Dec, 2020
No comments provided
Editor assigned
On 24 Nov, 2020
Submission checks complete
On 24 Nov, 2020
Editor invited
On 24 Nov, 2020
No comments provided
Editorial decision: Minor revision
On 15 Nov, 2020
Editor assigned
On 12 Nov, 2020
Submission checks complete
On 12 Nov, 2020
Editor invited
On 12 Nov, 2020
No comments provided
Review #2 received
Received 31 Oct, 2020
Editorial decision: Minor revision
On 31 Oct, 2020
Review #1 received
Received 21 Oct, 2020
Reviewer #2 agreed
On 15 Oct, 2020
Reviewers invited
Invitations sent on 13 Oct, 2020
Reviewer #1 agreed
On 13 Oct, 2020
Editor assigned
On 12 Oct, 2020
Editor invited
On 11 Oct, 2020
Submission checks complete
On 23 Sep, 2020
Version 1
Posted 16 Jun, 2020
No comments provided
Review #1 received
Received 27 Jul, 2020
Editorial decision: Major revision
On 27 Jul, 2020
Review #3 received
Received 05 Jul, 2020
Review #2 received
Received 05 Jul, 2020
Reviewer #2 agreed
On 26 Jun, 2020
Reviewer #3 agreed
On 26 Jun, 2020
Reviewer #1 agreed
On 23 Jun, 2020
Reviewers invited
Invitations sent on 22 Jun, 2020
Editor assigned
On 09 Jun, 2020
Submission checks complete
On 08 Jun, 2020
Editor invited
On 08 Jun, 2020
First submitted
On 07 Jun, 2020
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A new preprint design is coming!
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See the published version of this preprint at BMC Neurology.
This is a preprint, a preliminary version of a manuscript that has not completed peer review at a journal. Research Square does not conduct peer review prior to posting preprints. The posting of a preprint on this server should not be interpreted as an endorsement of its validity or suitability for dissemination as established information or for guiding clinical practice.
Learn more about In Review
Research article
Zahra Sharafi
Zahedan University of Medical Sciences
Corresponding Author
Badges
Prescreen
This manuscript passed our Prescreen assessment
Complete author information
Appropriate declaration statements
Potential risks to human health
Prescreen
Peer Review Timeline
CURRENT STATUS: Published
View the published article at BMC Neurology.
No community comments so far
Editor assigned
On 28 Dec, 2020
Submission checks complete
On 28 Dec, 2020
Editor invited
On 28 Dec, 2020
No comments provided
Editorial decision: Minor revision
On 10 Dec, 2020
Editor assigned
On 02 Dec, 2020
Submission checks complete
On 02 Dec, 2020
Editor invited
On 02 Dec, 2020
No comments provided
Editor assigned
On 24 Nov, 2020
Submission checks complete
On 24 Nov, 2020
Editor invited
On 24 Nov, 2020
No comments provided
Editorial decision: Minor revision
On 15 Nov, 2020
Editor assigned
On 12 Nov, 2020
Submission checks complete
On 12 Nov, 2020
Editor invited
On 12 Nov, 2020
No comments provided
Review #2 received
Received 31 Oct, 2020
Editorial decision: Minor revision
On 31 Oct, 2020
Review #1 received
Received 21 Oct, 2020
Reviewer #2 agreed
On 15 Oct, 2020
Reviewers invited
Invitations sent on 13 Oct, 2020
Reviewer #1 agreed
On 13 Oct, 2020
Editor assigned
On 12 Oct, 2020
Editor invited
On 11 Oct, 2020
Submission checks complete
On 23 Sep, 2020
Version 1
Posted 16 Jun, 2020
No comments provided
Review #1 received
Received 27 Jul, 2020
Editorial decision: Major revision
On 27 Jul, 2020
Review #3 received
Received 05 Jul, 2020
Review #2 received
Received 05 Jul, 2020
Reviewer #2 agreed
On 26 Jun, 2020
Reviewer #3 agreed
On 26 Jun, 2020
Reviewer #1 agreed
On 23 Jun, 2020
Reviewers invited
Invitations sent on 22 Jun, 2020
Editor assigned
On 09 Jun, 2020
Submission checks complete
On 08 Jun, 2020
Editor invited
On 08 Jun, 2020
First submitted
On 07 Jun, 2020
Metrics
Comments: 0
PDF Downloads: ...
HTML Views: ...
License:
This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License. Read Full License
View the published article at BMC Neurology.
Background: Multiple Sclerosis (MS) remains to be a public health challenge, due to its unknown biological mechanism and clinical impact on young people. The prevalence of this disease in Iran is reported to be 5.3 to 74.28 per 100000 cases. Due to high prevalence of this disease in Fars province, this study aimed to assess the distribution of MS in this region in southern Iran by evaluating its covariates.
Method: Data from 5,468 patients diagnosed with MS were collected, according to the McDonald’s criteria, which was reported by the MS Society of Fars from 1991 until 2016. Bayesian spatio-temporal models was also used to describe MS incidence in Fars province. We also investigated the association between overall MS incidence rate and the overall percentage of vitamin D intake, smokers in the population as well as the overall percentage of people with normal BMI as well as alcohol consumption in a population from 1991 until 2016 by Besag, York and Mollie's (BYM) model.
Results: County-level crude incidence rates ranged from 0.22 to 11.31 cases per 100,000 population. The highest relative risk was estimated at 1.8 in the city of Shiraz, the capital of Fars province while the lowest relative risk was estimated at 0.11 in Zarindasht County in southern Fars. The percentages of vitamin D3 intake was significantly associated with the incidence of MS. Although 1% increase in Vitamin D3 intake is associated with 2% decrease in the risk of MS, 1% increase in smoking is associated with 16% increase in the risk of MS, respectively.
Conclusion: Spatial analysis of MS showed low incidence rate of this disease in the south and south east of Fars province, which is due to the effect of different covariates. As suggested by previous studies, vitamin D and smoking among all covaiates might be associated with high incidence of MS.
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