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Research Article
Summary of the COVID-19 epidemic in China: When and how to launch an emergency response
Fei Yin
West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University
Corresponding Author
ORCiD: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3486-4926
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This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License. Read Full License
In December 2019, Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) was first detected in Hubei Province and spread rapidly around the world. Summarizing the development of COVID-19 and assessing the effect of control measures are very critical to China and other countries. A heatmap was used to find the highest concentration of the COVID-19 outbreak and the areas with initial imported cases. A logistic growth curve model was employed to compare the development of COVID-19 before and after the emergency response took effect. We found that the number of confirmed cases peaked 9-14 days after the first detection of an imported case, but there was a peak lag in the province where the outbreak was concentrated. The average growth rate of cumulative confirmed cases decreased by approximately 50% after the emergency response began. Areas with frequent population migration have a high risk of outbreak. The emergency response taken by the Chinese government was able to effectively control the COVID-19 outbreak. Our study provides references for other countries and regions to control the COVID-19 outbreak.
Keywords
Corona Virus Disease 2019; COVID-19; Logistic Growth Curve Model; Epidemic Characteristics; Emergency Response; Prediction
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Junwen Tao
ORCiDcommented on 12 January, 2021
This is a preprint of an article published in Scientific Reports. The final authenticated version is available online at:https://rdcu.be/cdq3L [DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-80201-8].
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This is a preprint. It has not completed peer review.
Research Article
Summary of the COVID-19 epidemic in China: When and how to launch an emergency response
Fei Yin
West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University
Corresponding Author
ORCiD: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3486-4926
Badges
Prescreen
This manuscript passed our Prescreen assessment
Complete author information
Appropriate declaration statements
Potential risks to human health
Prescreen
History
CURRENT STATUS: Posted
Version 1
Posted 09 Jun, 2020
Community comments: 1
Metrics
Comments: 1
PDF Downloads: ...
HTML Views: ...
License:
This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License. Read Full License
In December 2019, Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) was first detected in Hubei Province and spread rapidly around the world. Summarizing the development of COVID-19 and assessing the effect of control measures are very critical to China and other countries. A heatmap was used to find the highest concentration of the COVID-19 outbreak and the areas with initial imported cases. A logistic growth curve model was employed to compare the development of COVID-19 before and after the emergency response took effect. We found that the number of confirmed cases peaked 9-14 days after the first detection of an imported case, but there was a peak lag in the province where the outbreak was concentrated. The average growth rate of cumulative confirmed cases decreased by approximately 50% after the emergency response began. Areas with frequent population migration have a high risk of outbreak. The emergency response taken by the Chinese government was able to effectively control the COVID-19 outbreak. Our study provides references for other countries and regions to control the COVID-19 outbreak.
Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3
Figure 4
Figure 5
Junwen Tao
ORCiDcommented on 12 January, 2021
This is a preprint of an article published in Scientific Reports. The final authenticated version is available online at:https://rdcu.be/cdq3L [DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-80201-8].