Patient characteristics
The characteristics of eligible patients with or without AL are summarized in Table 1. A total of 273 patients were included into this study, and the incidence of AL was 12.5% (34/273). The average age of all the enrolled patients was 64.4 years, with more male patients (78.4%, 214/273) than female patients (21.6%, 59/273). The occurrence of AL was significantly associated with low ASA score (U = 3205, z = -2.452, p = 0.014), open operation (p = 0.006), long operation time (p < 0.001), abnormal level of postoperative albumin (p < 0.001), hemoglobin (Hb) (p = 0.015), C-reactive protein (CRP) (p < 0.001), C-reactive protein to albumin ratio (CAR) (p < 0.001) and prognostic nutritional index (PNI) (p = 0.034). There was also a potential correlation of male patients with AL (p = 0.053). However, we detected no significant associations between AL and age, BMI, preoperative chemotherapy and/or radiotherapy, diabetes, smoking, thoracic operation history, pulmonary diseases, tumor location, histology, differentiation, pathological stage, nutritional pathway, white blood cell (WBC), lymphocyte, monocyte, neutrocyte, red blood cell (RBC), thrombocyte, glucose, neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet to lymphocyte ratio (PLR) and lymphocyte to monocyte ratio (LMR) (p > 0.1).
Table 1
Clinicopathological, operative and biochemical variables associated with AL
Variable
|
All (n = 273)
|
Non-AL (n = 239)
|
AL (n = 34)
|
p value
|
Gender
|
|
|
|
0.053
|
Male
|
214 (78.4)
|
183 (76.6)
|
31 (91.2)
|
|
Female
|
59 (21.6)
|
56 (23.4)
|
3 (8.8)
|
|
Age (years)
|
64.4 ± 8.8
|
64.3 ± 8.9
|
64.8 ± 8.4
|
0.853
|
BMI (kg/m2)
|
22.94 ± 3.18
|
22.99 ± 3.25
|
22.56 ± 2.67
|
0.491
|
Preoperative chemotherapy
and/or radiotherapy
|
|
|
|
0.198
|
No
|
228 (83.5)
|
197 (82.4)
|
31 (91.2)
|
|
Yes
|
45 (16.5)
|
42 (17.6)
|
3 (8.8)
|
|
Diabetes
|
|
|
|
0.720
|
No
|
253 (92.7)
|
222 (92.9)
|
31 (91.2)
|
|
Yes
|
20 (7.3)
|
17 (7.1)
|
3 (8.8)
|
|
Smoking
|
|
|
|
0.302
|
No
|
135 (50.5)
|
121 (50.6)
|
14 (41.2)
|
|
Yes
|
138 (49.5)
|
118 (49.4)
|
20 (58.8)
|
|
Thoracic operation history
|
|
|
|
0.592
|
No
|
271 (99.3)
|
237 (99.2)
|
34 (100)
|
|
Yes
|
2 (0.7)
|
2 (0.8)
|
0 (0)
|
|
Pulmonary diseases
|
|
|
|
0.271
|
No
|
270 (98.9)
|
237 (99.2)
|
33 (97.1)
|
|
Yes
|
3 (1.1)
|
2 (0.8)
|
1 (2.9)
|
|
ASA score
|
|
|
|
0.014
|
1
|
187 (68.5)
|
157 (65.7)
|
30 (88.2)
|
|
2
|
72 (26.4)
|
70 (29.3)
|
2 (5.9)
|
|
3
|
14 (5.1)
|
12 (5.0)
|
2 (5.9)
|
|
Tumor location
|
|
|
|
0.336
|
Upper
|
20 (7.3)
|
19 (7.9)
|
1 (2.9)
|
|
Middle
|
164 (60.1)
|
140 (58.6)
|
24 (70.6)
|
|
Lower
|
89 (32.6)
|
80 (33.5)
|
9 (26.5)
|
|
Histology
|
|
|
|
0.370
|
SCC
|
256 (93.8)
|
224 (93.7)
|
32 (94.1)
|
|
AC
|
2 (0.7)
|
2 (0.8)
|
0 (0)
|
|
ASC
|
2 (0.7)
|
1 (0.4)
|
1 (2.9)
|
|
Other a
|
13 (4.8)
|
12 (5.0)
|
1 (2.9)
|
|
Differentiation
|
|
|
|
0.883
|
Well
|
71 (26.0)
|
61 (25.5)
|
10 (29.4)
|
|
Moderate
|
158 (57.9)
|
139 (58.2)
|
19 (55.9)
|
|
Poor
|
44 (16.1)
|
39 (16.3)
|
5 (14.7)
|
|
Pathological Stage
|
|
|
|
0.199
|
I
|
104 (38.1)
|
90 (37.6)
|
14 (41.2)
|
|
II
|
62 (22.7)
|
59 (24.7)
|
3 (8.8)
|
|
III
|
101 (37.0)
|
86 (36.0)
|
15 (44.1)
|
|
IV
|
6 (2.2)
|
4 (1.7)
|
2 (5.9)
|
|
Operation type
|
|
|
|
0.006
|
Open operation
|
137 (50.2)
|
128 (53.6)
|
9 (26.5)
|
|
VATS
|
97 (35.5)
|
77 (32.2)
|
20 (58.8)
|
|
RATS
|
39 (14.3)
|
34 (14.2)
|
5 (14.7)
|
|
Duration of operation (hours)
|
3.96 ± 1.18
|
3.83 ± 1.15
|
4.88 ± 0.97
|
< 0.001
|
Nutritional pathway
|
|
|
|
0.217
|
Jejunostomy tube
|
31 (11.4)
|
25 (10.5)
|
6 (17.6)
|
|
Nasojejunal tube
|
242 (88.6)
|
214 (89.5)
|
28 (82.4)
|
|
Postoperative WBC (109/L)
|
11.14 ± 3.36
|
11.19 ± 3.33
|
10.80 ± 3.62
|
0.671
|
Postoperative lymphocyte (109/L)
|
0.69 ± 0.35
|
0.70 ± 0.36
|
0.61 ± 0.29
|
0.194
|
Postoperative monocyte (109/L)
|
0.61 ± 0.25
|
0.60 ± 0.24
|
0.61 ± 0.32
|
0.871
|
Postoperative neutrocyte (109/L)
|
9.77 ± 3.19
|
9.81 ± 3.18
|
9.51 ± 3.30
|
0.791
|
Postoperative RBC (1012/L)
|
3.89 ± 0.60
|
3.91 ± 0.58
|
3.75 ± 0.67
|
0.273
|
Postoperative albumin (g/L)
|
33.75 ± 3.69
|
34.11 ± 3.50
|
31.2 ± 0
|
< 0.001
|
Postoperative Hb (g/L)
|
118.5 ± 19.0
|
119.3 ± 19.0
|
112.5 ± 17.7
|
0.015
|
Postoperative platelet (109/L)
|
179.08 ± 56.87
|
178.91 ± 55.37
|
180.29 ± 67.43
|
0.703
|
Postoperative CRP (mg/L)
|
71.19 ± 63.71
|
56.45 ± 47.70
|
174.82 ± 66.35
|
< 0.001
|
Postoperative glucose (mmol/L)
|
8.42 ± 2.94
|
8.50 ± 3.03
|
7.86 ± 2.13
|
0.313
|
Postoperative CAR
|
2.19 ± 2.12
|
1.69 ± 1.50
|
5.74 ± 2.43
|
< 0.001
|
Postoperative NLR
|
18.74 ± 13.02
|
18.41 ± 12.64
|
21.04 ± 15.42
|
0.482
|
Postoperative PLR
|
320.31 ± 186.99
|
312.87 ± 176.75
|
372.62 ± 244.30
|
0.239
|
Postoperative LMR
|
1.42 ± 1.31
|
1.42 ± 1.32
|
1.36 ± 1.23
|
0.442
|
Postoperative PNI
|
68.29 ± 18.48
|
69.21 ± 18.74
|
61.81 ± 15.27
|
0.034
|
Data are presented as n (%) or mean ± standard deviation (SD). AL, anastomotic leakage; BMI, body mass index; ASA score, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score; SCC, squamous cell carcinoma; AC, adenocarcinoma; ASC, adenosquamous carcinoma; VATS, video-assisted thoracic surgery; RATS, robot-assisted thoracic surgery; WBC, white blood cell; RBC, red blood cell; Hb, hemoglobin; CRP, C-reactive protein; CAR, C-reactive protein to albumin ratio; NLR, neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio; PLR, platelet to lymphocyte ratio; LMR, lymphocyte to monocyte ratio; PNI, prognostic nutritional index. |
a Carcinoid tumors (n = 9), sarcomas (n = 2) and lymphomas (n = 2). |
Cut-off value of inflammatory and nutritional markers
The optimal cut-off value was determined according to the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (Table 2 and Fig. 1). Among them, CAR [AUC 0.943 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.911–0.976, p < 0.001)] and operation time [AUC 0.747 (95% CI = 0.679–0.815, p < 0.001)] had the greatest discrimination on AL prediction, Hb [AUC 0.629 (95% CI = 0.535–0.723, p = 0.015)] and PNI [AUC 0.612 (95% CI = 0.506–0.719, p = 0.034)] were also effective predictors for AL.
Table 2
Receiver operating characteristic analysis for each factor
Variable
|
Cut off
|
Sensitivity
|
Specificity
|
AUC(95% CI)
|
p value
|
Age (years)
|
68.5
|
38.24%
|
69.04%
|
0.510 (0.406–0.613)
|
0.853
|
BMI (kg/m2)
|
24.47
|
85.29%
|
32.21%
|
0.537 (0.444–0.629)
|
0.491
|
Duration of operation (hours)
|
3.65
|
94.12%
|
52.30%
|
0.747 (0.679–0.815)
|
< 0.001
|
Postoperative WBC (109/L)
|
11.55
|
47.06%
|
59.83%
|
0.477 (0.372–0.583)
|
0.671
|
Postoperative RBC (1012/L)
|
3.895
|
61.77%
|
53.97%
|
0.558 (0.453–0.663)
|
0.273
|
Postoperative Hb (g/L)
|
118.5
|
73.53%
|
58.16%
|
0.629 (0.535–0.723)
|
0.015
|
Postoperative glucose (mmol/L)
|
9.75
|
91.18%
|
23.43%
|
0.553 (0.456–0.651)
|
0.313
|
Postoperative CAR
|
3.00
|
88.24%
|
90.38%
|
0.943 (0.911–0.976)
|
< 0.001
|
Postoperative NLR
|
18.38
|
52.95%
|
62.34%
|
0.537 (0.428–0.646)
|
0.482
|
Postoperative PLR
|
255.00
|
76.47%
|
45.61%
|
0.562 (0.460–0.664)
|
0.239
|
Postoperative LMR
|
1.04
|
61.76%
|
54.81%
|
0.541 (0.429–0.652)
|
0.442
|
Postoperative PNI
|
58.90
|
52.94%
|
69.87%
|
0.612 (0.506–0.719)
|
0.034
|
AUC, area under the curve; CI: confidence interval; BMI, body mass index; WBC, white blood cell; RBC, red blood cell; Hb, hemoglobin; CAR, C-reactive protein to albumin ratio; NLR, neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio; PLR, platelet to lymphocyte ratio; LMR, lymphocyte to monocyte ratio; PNI, prognostic nutritional index. |
Risk factors for AL
C-reactive protein and albumin were excluded from the univariate and multivariate models due to their statistical correlation with CAR. Lymphocyte, monocyte, neutrocyte and platelet were excluded for the same reason. Univariate analysis showed that BMI, ASA score, operation type, operation time, postoperative Hb, CAR, PLR and PNI were risk factors for AL (p < 0.05), whereas multivariate analysis demonstrated that CAR and operation time were two independent risk factors for AL, and CAR (OR = 87.150, p < 0.001) had an advantage over operation time (OR = 11.178, p = 0.011; Table 3).
Table 3
Univariate and multivariate analysis of factors affecting AL after esophagectomy
Variable
|
Number (%)
|
Univariate analysis
|
Multivariate analysis
|
OR (95% CI)
|
p value
|
OR (95% CI)
|
p value
|
Age (years)
|
|
|
0.394
|
|
|
|
<68.5
|
186 (68.1)
|
1
|
|
|
|
|
≥68.5
|
87 (31.9)
|
1.380 (0.656 - 2.905)
|
|
|
|
BMI (kg/m2)
|
|
|
0.037
|
|
0.143
|
|
<24.47
|
191 (70.0)
|
1
|
|
1
|
|
|
≥24.47
|
82 (30.0)
|
0.363 (0.135 - 0.973)
|
|
0.316 (0.068 - 1.476)
|
|
ASA score
|
|
|
0.014
|
|
0.223
|
|
1
|
187 (68.5)
|
1
|
|
1
|
|
|
2
|
72 (26.4)
|
0.150 (0.035 - 0.643)
|
|
0.204 (0.029 - 1.434)
|
|
|
3
|
14 (5.1)
|
0.872 (0.186 - 4.097)
|
|
0.383 (0.030 - 4.813)
|
|
Operation type
|
|
|
0.006
|
|
0.110
|
|
Open operation
|
137 (50.2)
|
1
|
|
1
|
|
|
VATS
|
97 (35.5)
|
3.694 (1.601 - 8.522)
|
|
2.082 (0.487 - 8.895)
|
|
|
RATS
|
39 (14.3)
|
2.092 (0.658 - 6.650)
|
|
0.381 (0.067 - 2.169)
|
|
Duration of operation (hours)
|
|
|
< 0.001
|
|
0.011
|
|
<3.65
|
127 (46.5)
|
1
|
|
1
|
|
|
≥3.65
|
146 (53.5)
|
17.544 (4.111 - 74.861)
|
|
11.178 (1.741 - 71.749)
|
|
Postoperative WBC (109/L)
|
|
|
0.445
|
|
|
|
<11.55
|
161 (59.0)
|
1
|
|
|
|
|
≥11.55
|
112 (41.0)
|
1.324 (0.644 - 2.724)
|
|
|
|
Postoperative RBC (1012/L)
|
|
|
0.086
|
|
|
|
<3.895
|
131 (48.0)
|
1
|
|
|
|
|
≥3.895
|
142 (52.0)
|
0.528 (0.253 - 1.103)
|
|
|
|
Postoperative Hb (g/L)
|
|
|
0.001
|
|
0.157
|
|
<118.5
|
125 (45.8)
|
1
|
|
|
|
|
≥118.5
|
148 (54.2)
|
0.259 (0.116 - 0.579)
|
|
0.405 (0.116 - 1.417)
|
|
Postoperative glucose (mmol/L)
|
|
|
0.053
|
|
|
|
<9.75
|
214 (78.4)
|
1
|
|
|
|
|
≥9.75
|
59 (21.6)
|
0.316 (0.093 - 1.074)
|
|
|
|
Postoperative CAR
|
|
|
< 0.001
|
|
< 0.001
|
|
<3.00
|
220 (80.6)
|
1
|
|
1
|
|
|
≥3.00
|
53 (19.4)
|
70.435 (22.790 - 217.687)
|
|
87.150 (21.160 - 358.931)
|
|
Postoperative NLR
|
|
|
0.088
|
|
|
|
<18.38
|
165 (60.4)
|
1
|
|
|
|
|
≥18.38
|
108 (39.6)
|
1.863 (0.904 - 3.836)
|
|
|
|
Postoperative PLR
|
|
|
0.015
|
|
0.226
|
|
<255.00
|
117 (42.9)
|
1
|
|
1
|
|
|
≥255.00
|
156 (57.1)
|
2.725 (1.186 - 6.264)
|
|
2.726 (0.537 - 13.827)
|
|
Postoperative LMR
|
|
|
0.070
|
|
|
|
<1.04
|
129 (47.3)
|
1
|
|
|
|
|
≥1.04
|
144 (52.7)
|
0.510 (0.244 - 1.067)
|
|
|
|
Postoperative PNI
|
|
|
0.008
|
|
0.590
|
|
<58.90
|
90 (33.0)
|
1
|
|
1
|
|
|
≥58.90
|
183 (67.0)
|
0.383 (0.185 - 0.794)
|
|
1.523 (0.330 - 7.035)
|
|
Data are presented as n (%). OR, odds ratio; CI, confidence interval; BMI, body mass index; ASA score, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score; VATS, video-assisted thoracic surgery; RATS, robot-assisted thoracic surgery; WBC, white blood cell; RBC, red blood cell; Hb, hemoglobin; CAR, C-reactive protein to albumin ratio; NLR, neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio; PLR, platelet to lymphocyte ratio; LMR, lymphocyte to monocyte ratio; PNI, prognostic nutritional index. |