The recent expansion of surgical indications has increased the number of patients with potentially resectable disease, but it has also been accompanied by an increased risk of recurrence.10 Thermal ablation is one curative treatment option for small recurrent CLMs.11 This single-centre cohort study reviewed our institution’s 10 years of experience with RFA in patients with recurrent CLMs and constructed nomograms to accurately predict rIHR and OS after RFA.
In this study, the 1-, 2-, and 3-year rIHR rates were 59%, 69%, and 74%, respectively. High rIHR rates after RFA have been reported by prior studies. Valls et al.12 reported that of 59 recurrent CLM cases treated with RFA, the 1- and 2-year liver disease-free survival rates were 54% and 24%, respectively. Zimmermann et al.7 analysed 23 patients treated with RFA for recurrent CLMs after major hepatectomy and reported a 1-year rIHR rate of 65%. Taken together, these findings emphasize that about 60% of patients with recurrent CLMs will develop rIHR within 1 years after RFA. Compared with rIHR, OS provides a more direct evaluation of prognosis. The 5-year OS of 47% in this cohort was higher than that of prior studies.7, 12, 13 Prior studies reflect analyses of more historic practices. All of the patients in this cohort were treated in 2012 or later, and the OS in the study cohort may reflect the observations of more contemporary analyses.
Nomograms are a statistical tool that use a simple line graph for prediction. Published models have been designed for all CLM populations.14–16 However, prognostic factors may change dramatically with disease recurrence.17 In this study, we constructed a novel nomogram for rIHR after RFA of recurrent CLMs that incorporated four independent predictors, including RAS mutation (mutant type, 90 points), interval from hepatectomy to intrahepatic recurrence (≤ 12 months, 100 points), CEA level at ablation (> 5 ng/ml, 61 points) and ablation margin (< 5 mm, 89 points). The C-index of this nomogram was 0.694. RAS mutation (mutant type, 99 points), largest CLM at hepatectomy (> 3 cm, 100 points), CEA level at ablation (> 5 ng/ml, 84 points), extrahepatic disease (Yes, 75 points), and ablation margin (< 5 mm, 79 points) were incorporated in the OS nomogram, which had a high accuracy for OS with a C-index of 0.743. These prognostic nomograms are useful tools for clinical decision-making, use easily available variables, and have the advantage of combining different factors to estimate probability rather than using individual variables for prediction.
RAS mutations occur in approximately 40–50% of patients undergoing CLM resection18 and have been associated with lower effectiveness of preoperative chemotherapy19 and poor OS in patients with resectable CLMs.20 Many studies have reported that patients with RAS-mutated tumours have a higher risk of intrahepatic recurrence after local treatment.14, 21–23 In this study, RAS mutation was a predictor of a higher rIHR rate and worse OS after RFA for recurrent CLMs, probably because the tumour biology is more migratory and infiltrative.24
Many studies have shown that ablation margin is a critical predictor of LTP.23, 25–27 An ablation margin > 10 mm was associated with the best local tumour control, especially for RAS mutational tumours.26 Similar to previous reports, our study revealed that the ablation margin was a significant predictor of rIHR and OS after RFA. Ablation margins cannot be determined with certainty preoperatively, but with experience and high-level imaging technology, they can be estimated by the radiologist team.
Currently, CEA is the most widely used biomarker in CRC and a predictor for the benefit of perioperative chemotherapy.28 In this study, patients with CEA levels > 5 ng/mL exhibited a higher rIHR rate and a worse OS rate than those with lower levels. Therefore, elevated CEA levels might reflect the presence of micrometastases and aggressive tumour biology.28
A short interval from hepatectomy to recurrence usually reflects unidentified metastases or microscopic remnant disease.29 In our study, patients who presented with intrahepatic recurrence within 12 months of hepatectomy experienced rIHR more frequently. Therefore, several publications recommended RFA as a “test-of-time” strategy for patients with early recurrence.13 Local tumour control by RFA provides time for the development of unresectable multifocal disease, allowing these patients to avoid unnecessary surgery.6 Additionally, approximately 10% of patients had concomitant extrahepatic disease at the time of intrahepatic recurrence after hepatectomy.29 Although the involvement of extrahepatic organs indicates poor outcomes, patients with limited and treatable extrahepatic diseases can also benefit from ablation for CLMs.30 In general, tumour size and number at RFA have been considered the key predictors for recurrence and survival, but these indicators failed to show statistical significance in our data. This may be explained by the fact that recurrent CLMs are detected early after hepatectomy due to the close follow-up regimen, meaning that usually only small-sized and solitary recurrent CLMs are observed.11
Although approximately 70% of patients develop rIHR within 2 years, RFA can be easily repeated to treat tumour recurrence5 and can offer improved long-term survival10. Hence, the current nomogram may provide prognostic benefits to patients at high risk of rIHR through more frequent radiological follow-up. Furthermore, the application of the OS nomogram may improve patient selection.
There are some limitations in this study. First, since this was a retrospective analysis of a single-institution prospective database, information and selection bias may be present. Thus, external validation in a multicentre prospective study is still needed to confirm the performance of our nomograms. Second, although inclusion of RAS mutation in the rIHR nomogram led to improved prognostic accuracy, the discrimination of the nomogram remained modest (C-index < 0.70); future studies are needed to incorporate additional somatic gene mutations to update the nomogram.
In conclusion, the established nomograms may accurately predict the individual risk of rIHR and OS in recurrent CLM patients treated with RFA and contribute to better individualized management.