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Research Article
Texcalac - Sangrador José Luis
National Institute of Public Health - Mexico
Corresponding Author
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This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License. Read Full License
Declarations:
Declarations
- This study involved human subjects.
- The author confirmed that all appropriate ethical guidelines for the use of human subjects have been followed, any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee review has been obtained, and information about the IRB/ethics committee is included in the manuscript.
- The author has confirmed that all necessary patient/participant consent or assent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. If the IRB/ethics committee waived the requirement for patient/participant consent or assent, an explanation for the waiver is included in the text.
- The author has confirmed that a statement listing potential conflicts of interest or lack thereof is included in the text.
Epidemiological studies on the effects of air pollution in Mexico often use the environmental concentrations of monitors closest to the home as exposure proxies, yet this approach disregards the space gradients of pollutants and assumes that individuals have no intra-city mobility. Our aim was to develop high-resolution spatial and temporal models for predicting long-term exposure to PM2.5 and NO2 in a population of ~ 16 500 participants from the Mexican Teachers’ Cohort study. We geocoded the home and work addresses of participants. Using information from secondary sources on geographic and meteorological variables as well as other pollutants, we fitted two generalized additive models to predict monthly PM2.5 and NO2 concentrations in the 2004–2019 period. The models were evaluated through 10-fold cross validation. Both showed high predictive accuracy with out-of-sample data and no overfitting (CV RMSE = 0.102 for PM2.5 and CV RMSE = 4.497 for NO2). Participants were exposed to a monthly average of 24.38 (6.78) µg/m3 of PM2.5 and 28.21 (8.00) ppb of NO2 during the study period. These models offer a solid alternative for estimating PM2.5 and NO2 exposure with high spatio-temporal resolution for epidemiological studies in the Valle de México region.
Keywords
PM2.5, NO2, air pollution, Generalized Additive Models, exposure assessment, geocoding.
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A new preprint design is coming!
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This is a preprint, a preliminary version of a manuscript that has not completed peer review at a journal. Research Square does not conduct peer review prior to posting preprints. The posting of a preprint on this server should not be interpreted as an endorsement of its validity or suitability for dissemination as established information or for guiding clinical practice.
Research Article
Texcalac - Sangrador José Luis
National Institute of Public Health - Mexico
Corresponding Author
Badges
Prescreen
This manuscript passed our Prescreen assessment
Complete author information
Appropriate declaration statements
Potential risks to human health
Prescreen
History
CURRENT STATUS: Posted
Version 1
Posted 25 Mar, 2021
No community comments so far
Metrics
Comments: 0
PDF Downloads: ...
HTML Views: ...
License:
This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License. Read Full License
Declarations:
Declarations
- This study involved human subjects.
- The author confirmed that all appropriate ethical guidelines for the use of human subjects have been followed, any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee review has been obtained, and information about the IRB/ethics committee is included in the manuscript.
- The author has confirmed that all necessary patient/participant consent or assent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. If the IRB/ethics committee waived the requirement for patient/participant consent or assent, an explanation for the waiver is included in the text.
- The author has confirmed that a statement listing potential conflicts of interest or lack thereof is included in the text.
Epidemiological studies on the effects of air pollution in Mexico often use the environmental concentrations of monitors closest to the home as exposure proxies, yet this approach disregards the space gradients of pollutants and assumes that individuals have no intra-city mobility. Our aim was to develop high-resolution spatial and temporal models for predicting long-term exposure to PM2.5 and NO2 in a population of ~ 16 500 participants from the Mexican Teachers’ Cohort study. We geocoded the home and work addresses of participants. Using information from secondary sources on geographic and meteorological variables as well as other pollutants, we fitted two generalized additive models to predict monthly PM2.5 and NO2 concentrations in the 2004–2019 period. The models were evaluated through 10-fold cross validation. Both showed high predictive accuracy with out-of-sample data and no overfitting (CV RMSE = 0.102 for PM2.5 and CV RMSE = 4.497 for NO2). Participants were exposed to a monthly average of 24.38 (6.78) µg/m3 of PM2.5 and 28.21 (8.00) ppb of NO2 during the study period. These models offer a solid alternative for estimating PM2.5 and NO2 exposure with high spatio-temporal resolution for epidemiological studies in the Valle de México region.
Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3
Figure 4
Figure 5
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