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Research Article
SARS-Cov-2 trajectory predictions and scenario simulations from a global perspective: a modelling study
Jianwei Deng
Beijing Institute of Technology
Corresponding Author
License:
This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License. Read Full License
The coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 emerging from Wuhan, China has developed into a global epidemic. Here, we combine both human mobility and non-pharmaceutical interventions (social-distancing and suspected-cases isolation) into SEIR transmission model to understand how coronavirus transmits in a global environment. Dynamic trends of region-specific time-variant reproduction number, social-distancing rate, work-resumption rate, and suspected-cases isolation rate have been estimated and plotted for each region by fitting random walk transmission processes to the real total confirmed cases of each region. We find after shutdown in Wuhan, the reproduction number in Wuhan greatly declined from 6·982 (95% CI, 2·558-14·668) on January 23, 2020 to 1·130 (95% CI, 0·289-3·279) on February 7, 2020, and there was a higher intervention level in terms of social distancing and suspected-case isolation in Wuhan than the Chinese average and Western average, for the period from the shutdown in Wuhan to mid-March. Future epidemic trajectories of Western countries up to October 10, 2020, have been predicted with 95% confidence intervals. Through the scenario simulation, we discover the benefits of earlier international travel ban and rigorous intervention strategies, and the significance of non-pharmaceutical interventions. From a global perspective, it is vital for each country to control the risks of imported cases, and execute rigorous non-pharmaceutical interventions before successful vaccination development.
Keywords
Corona Virus Disease 2019, SEIR model, non-pharmaceutical interventions; human mobility
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Zhengqi
commented on 05 July, 2020
Good work, the preprocessing towards data is reasonable and appropriate
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This is a preprint. It has not completed peer review.
Research Article
SARS-Cov-2 trajectory predictions and scenario simulations from a global perspective: a modelling study
Jianwei Deng
Beijing Institute of Technology
Corresponding Author
Badges
Prescreen
This manuscript passed our Prescreen assessment
Complete author information
Appropriate declaration statements
Potential risks to human health
Prescreen
History
CURRENT STATUS: Posted
Version 1
Posted 18 Jun, 2020
Community comments: 1
Metrics
Comments: 1
PDF Downloads: ...
HTML Views: ...
License:
This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License. Read Full License
The coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 emerging from Wuhan, China has developed into a global epidemic. Here, we combine both human mobility and non-pharmaceutical interventions (social-distancing and suspected-cases isolation) into SEIR transmission model to understand how coronavirus transmits in a global environment. Dynamic trends of region-specific time-variant reproduction number, social-distancing rate, work-resumption rate, and suspected-cases isolation rate have been estimated and plotted for each region by fitting random walk transmission processes to the real total confirmed cases of each region. We find after shutdown in Wuhan, the reproduction number in Wuhan greatly declined from 6·982 (95% CI, 2·558-14·668) on January 23, 2020 to 1·130 (95% CI, 0·289-3·279) on February 7, 2020, and there was a higher intervention level in terms of social distancing and suspected-case isolation in Wuhan than the Chinese average and Western average, for the period from the shutdown in Wuhan to mid-March. Future epidemic trajectories of Western countries up to October 10, 2020, have been predicted with 95% confidence intervals. Through the scenario simulation, we discover the benefits of earlier international travel ban and rigorous intervention strategies, and the significance of non-pharmaceutical interventions. From a global perspective, it is vital for each country to control the risks of imported cases, and execute rigorous non-pharmaceutical interventions before successful vaccination development.
Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3
Figure 4
Figure 5
Figure 6
Figure 7
Figure 8
Figure 9
Zhengqi
commented on 05 July, 2020
Good work, the preprocessing towards data is reasonable and appropriate