4.1 Correlation analysis between vertical component timing and energy event timing of GNSS observation station
Since the six new GNSS observation stations began recording data in July 2021, the data since July 2021 are emphatically analyzed.The number of daily energy events in the energy event catalog recorded by the anti-scour office of the Junde mining area is counted to characterize the background value of energy events in the mining area. ( For example, a total of 84 energy events were recorded on September 19, 2021, and a total of 123 energy events were recorded on September 20, 2021), as shown in Fig. 6. It was found that the number of energy events decreased rapidly from mid-August to late October. The possible reason is the weakening of mining activities or the decreasein regional crustal tectonic stress levels. The Pearson correlation coefficient method is used to analyze the correlation between the vertical position time series and the energy event series of the six new stations (the Pearson coefficient method is a statistical method used to measure the linear correlation between the two variables. It ranges from 1 to 1, where 1 means completely negative correlation, 0 means no correlation, and 1 means completely positive correlation ). The results are shown in Fig. 7.
It can be seen from Fig. 7 that the two stations of HGJD and HGXL show negative relativity with energy events and the correlation coefficients are 0.41 and 0.22, respectively. The other four stations show positive relativity, of which the highest is HGHY station 0.59, followed by HGKW station 0.38, HGNS station 0.28, and HGJY station 0.19. In view of the fewer observation data of the HGKW station, the calculated correlation is not representative, so it is not considered in the later analysis
By comparing the vertical timing of the HGHY station with the timing of energy events, it is found that the changing trend of the two is relatively consistent, that is, the phenomenon of rising and falling at the same time in most periods is shown in Fig. 8. For the four major energy events ( black histogram in the figure ) that occurred during the period, it is found that .
( 1 ) Before each large energy event, the HGHY station showed rapid or continuous subsidence, and the corresponding vertical subsidence amplitudes of the HGHY station before the four energy events were about 45mm, 27mm, 27mm, and 8mm, respectively.
( 2 ) When the background value of the energy event is greater than 100, the corresponding second and third large energy events occur. The vertical subsidence trend of the HGHY site is consistent with the trend of energy event reduction. That is, when the energy background value is high ( greater than 100 times/day), the vertical rapid subsidence of the site reaches about 30 mm, which may be accompanied by the occurrence of large energy events
( 3 ) When the first large energy event occurred, the HGHY station was built in less than half a month. During this period, the vertical movement was manifested mainly as the self-settlement of the observation pier, so it could not be used to characterize the vertical movement of the surface in this area.The fourth large energy event occurred at a low energy background value ( about 40 times/day). Although the downward trend of the two was consistent, the vertical downward amplitude of the corresponding HGHY site was only about 8 mm. Compared with the 27 mm when the energy background value was higher, the difference between the two was nearly 3 times, and the microseismic energy was 3.5 times
It can be inferred that when the energy background value of the mining area is high ( more than 100 times/day), if the GNSS continuous observation station above the mining field or in a small area near the mining area has a rapid subsidence movement in the vertical direction and the decline range is about 30 mm or higher, the mining area corresponding to the GNSS observation station is more likely to have a large energy event. When the energy background value of the mining area is low ( less than 40 times/day),the vertical rapid subsidence range of the corresponding GNSS station and the energy released by the subsequent energy events are reduced accordingly.
In order to eliminate the uncertainty caused by the short observation time and verify the above inference, the vertical position timing of the Hegang GNSS reference station HLHG of the land state network since January 1, 2020, and the energy event time series of the mining area are compared and analyzed as shown in Fig. 9, and the correlation coefficient between vertical change and energy event is calculated as shown in Fig. 10. The results show that from the perspective of long time scale, the HLHG station shows relatively regular annual andsemiannual fluctuations in the vertical direction, and the correlation coefficient calculated from the time series of energy events is only 0.08, showing no correlation.The reason may be related to the fact that the HLHG station is far from the Junde mining area, which also shows that the influence range of energy events in the mining area is limited. At the same time, it shows that the magnitude of vertical change of the GNSS station is related to the size and distance of reflected energy events.
4.2 Analysis of the influence of epicentral distances on the characteristics of crustal deformation
In order to analyze the influence of epicentral distances on vertical time series and energy event time series, the seismic station monitored three large energy events with magnitudes of M1.8, M1.9, and M2.2 at 07: 42: 49.06 on January 18, 2022, 13: 20: 19.91 on April 24, 2022 and 01: 14: 51.11 on May 27, 2011 in the Xinlu mine and Xing 'an mine of the Hegang mining area.The vertical time series and energy events of the GNSS stations HGXL and HGJD closest to the above three large energy events were analyzed.The results are shown in Fig. 11:
From Fig. 11, it can be concluded that before the three large energy events, the nearby GNSS stations showed continuous and rapid sinking movements in the vertical direction, with sinking amplitudes of about 23 mm, 12 mmand 52 mm, respectively. The nearest stations of the epicenters of the three large energy events were HGXL stations, but the epicenter distances were different
From Fig. 11, it can be concluded that before the three large energy events, the nearby GNSS stations showed continuous and rapid sinking movements in the vertical direction, with sinking amplitudes of about 23 mm, 12 mm and 52 mm, respectively. The nearest stations of the epicenters of the three large energy events were HGXL stations, but the epicenter distances were different。
The HGXL is farther away from the epicenter of the large-energy event on January 18 than the large-energy event on April 24.Although the magnitude of the two large energy events is similar, the rapid decline in the vertical direction before the event is different. This also reflects that the rapid decline in the vertical direction of the GNSS site is related to the epicenter distances. The farther the epicenter distance, the greater the rapid decline in the vertical direction of the GNSS site before the large energy event of the same magnitude。
Comparing the two large energy events on April 24 and May 27, the difference between the vertical rapid decline of the HGJD station and the HGXL station is about 40 mm.Considering that the magnitude of the earthquake differs by one level, the energy released by the two is 32 times. According to this calculation, the energy released by the 2.2-level large energy event on May 27 is nearly 5 times that released by the 1.9-level vibration event on April 24, which also reflects that the GNSS station has the same epicentral distance before the large energy event occurs. The greater the rapid decline in the vertical direction, the greater the total energy released by the corresponding subsequent energy events.