Scaling-up timely hepatitis B birth-dose vaccination to 90% of new-borns in 110 low- and middle-income countries by 2030 could prevent 770,000 (600,000–1,060,000) deaths in the 2020 to 2030 birth cohorts compared to status quo, with the greatest benefits in Africa. Maintaining this could lead to elimination by 2032 in the Americas, but not before 2059 in Africa. Drops in coverage due to disruptions in 2020 may lead to 17,000 additional deaths, mostly in South-East Asia and the Western Pacific. Delays in planned scale-up could lead to an additional 630,000 deaths globally in the 2020 to 2030 birth cohorts.

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Yes there is potential Competing Interest. The authors declare the following competing interests:
This work was supported, in whole or in part, by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation OPP1157270. Under the grant conditions of the Foundation, a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 Generic License has already been assigned to the Author Accepted Manuscript version that might arise from this submission.
This work was carried out as part of the Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium (www.vaccineimpact.org), but the views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Consortium or its funders. The funders were given the opportunity to review this paper prior to publication, but the final decision on the content of the publication was taken by the authors.
SN and TBH have received personal fees for technical consultation work with the World Health Organization on Hepatitis elimination, surveillance and monitoring, and for the preparation of reports for guidelines committees on the prevention of mother-to-child transmission.
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Posted 19 Apr, 2021
Posted 19 Apr, 2021
Scaling-up timely hepatitis B birth-dose vaccination to 90% of new-borns in 110 low- and middle-income countries by 2030 could prevent 770,000 (600,000–1,060,000) deaths in the 2020 to 2030 birth cohorts compared to status quo, with the greatest benefits in Africa. Maintaining this could lead to elimination by 2032 in the Americas, but not before 2059 in Africa. Drops in coverage due to disruptions in 2020 may lead to 17,000 additional deaths, mostly in South-East Asia and the Western Pacific. Delays in planned scale-up could lead to an additional 630,000 deaths globally in the 2020 to 2030 birth cohorts.

Figure 1

Figure 2

Figure 3

Figure 4

Figure 5
Yes there is potential Competing Interest. The authors declare the following competing interests:
This work was supported, in whole or in part, by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation OPP1157270. Under the grant conditions of the Foundation, a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 Generic License has already been assigned to the Author Accepted Manuscript version that might arise from this submission.
This work was carried out as part of the Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium (www.vaccineimpact.org), but the views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Consortium or its funders. The funders were given the opportunity to review this paper prior to publication, but the final decision on the content of the publication was taken by the authors.
SN and TBH have received personal fees for technical consultation work with the World Health Organization on Hepatitis elimination, surveillance and monitoring, and for the preparation of reports for guidelines committees on the prevention of mother-to-child transmission.
This is a list of supplementary files associated with this preprint. Click to download.
supplementary materials
Reporting summary
Supplementary information
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